AAPL - Sector: Technology - Industry: Computer Hardware

[Melf Elf]

AAPL is building a nice ascending triangl on the 30min chart from its gap breakout on the 21st.  I put the triangle target at $98.80.  Lets see if it makes the breakout in the next few trading sessions.  Keep a eye on that 93.15 resistance!!!

Scotsman,

Are you able to determine from those charts what the low of the pattern is?  If not, does your broker have charts, so that you can get those numbers?  You need them to derive your targets.

For you Ascending Triangle:


93.15 - the Highs

89.50 - the low of the pattern, at #2 on the chart

93.15 - 89.50 = 3.65 points + 93.15 = Target: 96.80 IN PLAY on a print of 93.16.

That's great that you're working on these targets.  Applause.  Good luck!

[ScottishTrader]

hey melf,

I was taking it from the base of the breakout at 87.50 (red circle), i.e., 93.15-87.50 = 5.65 + 93.15 = 98.80.

but if, when measuring triangles and targets, you should be taking it off the first reaction low off upside resistance (blue circle) which I suppose does make sense, then you are right, and the target would be 93.15 - 89.50 = 3.65 +93.15 = 96.80, as you described.  Which is exactly why it is important to know how to calculate these things, otherwise you don't get the right targets and wonder "well my target didn't get made" when actually the pattern target did get made.  So thanks for correcting me there.

ST

[Melf Elf]

hey melf,

I was taking it from the base of the breakout at 87.50 (red circle), i.e., 93.15-87.50 = 5.65 + 93.15 = 98.80.

Scotsman,

Aha! 

Okay, now I see how you got that target.  I couldn't figure it at first.   

but if, when measuring triangles and targets, you should be taking it off the first reaction low off upside resistance (blue circle) which I suppose does make sense, then you are right, and the target would be 93.15 - 89.50 = 3.65 +93.15 = 96.80, as you described.

Yes, that's how I measured it, but I certainly can't say that the way you did it isn't valid, or that your target isn't going to make.   

Which is exactly why it is important to know how to calculate these things, otherwise you don't get the right targets and wonder "well my target didn't get made" when actually the pattern target did get made.

Yes, exactly, but sometimes patterns are clearer than at other times, and technicians don't always agree on how to draw patterns.  My rule of thumb is, "To what is the market responding?"  And, that isn't always clear. 

That's why I like a third hit to a trendline, for example, for validation.  And, another hit is even better, like in CNXT recently.  Frederick and I remarked on how it was hitting trendlines and re-testing them exactly . 

But, we don't always get that, as you well know. 

thanks for correcting me there.

Again, I can't really disagree with how you made your calculation

But, to me, it does make more sense to start the pattern at 93.15, because that's where the Ascending Triangle originated, and it was the point from which the pattern emerged.

1. We got a top at 93.15.

2. We sold off to 89.50

3. We rallied back to 93.15, then sold off again.

Ohhh-hh...I see.  That's a flat top.  I wonder if we'll make a "higher low," for an Ascending line. 

4. Hey, there's a higher low!

Okay, I see what's going on.  If we take out 93.15 now, we've got an Ascending Triangle breakout!

See what I mean?

But, that's just my opinion.

Good luck with your position.  You sure are working hard at staying focused and disciplined!  Applause.

[ScottishTrader]

Well, I think your way is right - I realised i did the same elsewher in an ONXX analysis recently, calculating the June-ugust traingle breakdown target as:

18.08-14.52 = 3.56, 15.42-3.56 = 11.86 IN PLAY, which didn't get made.

However, the calculation should have bee off the first reaction high, i.e.

17.19-14.52 = 2.67, 15.42 - 2.67 = 12.75. 

The low of the breakdown was 12.70.  Target MADE.  And a cover of a short position at that level would have got you out within 5 cents of the reversal low.  So it proves your point exactly.  I think the important thing here is that the initial high or low is part of the pattern and can be used for determining your trendlines, and it counts as a valid trendline tag, however, targets should be calculated off the first reaction within the pattern, because until you have that first reaction, you don't have a pattern.  This is what I will be using in my future target analyses. 

This is what I mean by the fact that it really is SO useful to have other people around here to bounce things off, or to comment on your analysis, so you can learn when you are not doing things right.  I probably would have kept on doing it like this forever otherwise, so thanks 

[Melf Elf]

Scotsman,

Your Ascending Triangle in AAPL is one of the cases where we have to watch the pattern form, and "move the chains" as necessary, if the pattern morphs.

After we had Data Points #1 through #4, it looked ready to breakout, and "looked safe" to put a stop under the Ascending line at #4 (the one that is "x-ed out").

That proved to be too tight a stop, if anyone used it.  It got taken out this morning, and we  now have to "move the chains" for Data Point #4, which was this morning's low.

Neither trendline has a second hit for validation, so we're kind of "winging it" here, knowing that the stock is bullish, but not yet knowing for sure exactly what the pattern is.

Just thought I'd mention that, because this morning's break "looks like" the Ascendiing Triangle failed.  Since the 89.50 low (#2) has held, we don't want to make the assumption that it failed.

APPL hasn't done anything wrong, so we "move the chains," and see what develops. 

Good luck!

EDIT: I'll get back to you on the ONXX pattern.  I don't have that one in my data base.

[ScottishTrader]

thanks, I know, and that is why my stop is sitting just a bit below 89.50.

Oh, and don't worry about ONXX, it was really just an example...  (though has been looking liek a nice potential sort setup, if I could get the shares to short...)

[basonista]

The trend for AAPL continues on.... 

[basonista]

Starting to see more trend breaks such as this.  Maybe it's time to start looking for more shorts for the portfolio...

[basonista]

Wow!  Who would have thought.   I didn't short this on the trendline break because I thought that when they announce the iPhone the stock would shoot up.  Maybe a short is a good idea now....

Apple shares fall on report of faked documents

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Shares of Apple Computer Inc.  dropped 4% in preopen trades Wednesday after a news report suggested that some company officials may have falsified stock-option documents in the past to maximize profits for executives. The news report, which appeared on the Web site Law.com, said federal prosecutors are examining the documents to determine whether criminal charges should be filed. The story cited "individuals familiar with the case who requested anonymity." The report also said Chief Executive Steve Jobs has decided that he needs to hire his own attorney to deal with the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission. Until now, Jobs has been represented by the company's outside law firm. Apple has previously said that its own internal investigation has found no misconduct by Jobs or other senior executives.

[basonista]

I still don't have the balls to short this but this would be a good time with the gap fill and resistance holding.

[basonista]

Let's see if it can recover again today.  Down 2.67% now...

Apple's Jobs didn't get 2001 board options okay -report

[basonista]

AAPL is holding up nicely in the face of bad news although there are good articles also coming out...

Cramer's #2 growth story of 2007


Sorry for the length of this article. It was a news item through Ameritrade and I couldn't find an online link.


=DJ Expectations High For An Apple Cellphone At Macworld Show   

01/04/2007
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)



   By Mark Boslet
   Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

The sprawling Consumer Electronics Show will kick off this weekend in Las Vegas, but Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) may steal the show when the Macworld conference opens Tuesday in San Francisco.

Analysts say they are hotly anticipating several key announcements from the computer maker, including the possibility of an iPod cellphone that plays music downloaded from Apple's iTunes online store, and a wide-screen iPod with touch-screen controls for video playback.

The Cupertino, Calif., company also should provide more detail about the iTV product it unveiled in September and is expected to ship in the first quarter. The discussion is likely to offer insight into Apple's living room strategy for managing video, music and photos on the computer and television - and create a buzz that is likely to roil the CES crowds in Vegas, where video will be a central focus.

Macworld also should allow Apple to show off features of the new Leopard version of its Mac OS X operating system for personal computers, including what some observers say could be virtualization features to more smoothly run programs designed for Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT) Windows operating system.

The Macworld show comes at an opportune time for the company. It should provide a welcome burst of good news after Apple's decision last week to take an $84 million charge related to the backdating of stock options, even as it cleared Chief Executive Steve Jobs of responsibility. Jobs' two-hour address scheduled for Tuesday morning - about twice as long as normal - will give him the chance to upstage his rival, Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates, who will address CES Sunday night.

The timing of Jobs' address gives him the last word on Leopard after Gates discusses his long-delayed Vista version of Windows, which is scheduled for consumer launch later this month.

Because of Apple's secretive nature, analysts say they have no direct knowledge of which products the company will unveil. However, expectations for the show are high, and the company's stock could suffer if Apple fails to unveil the much-anticipated cellphone. Apple closed Thursday at $85.66, up 2.2% on the day and nearly 71% from its July low.

Many say they believe Apple has two models of a cellular phone ready to release in 2007 and that the products could be introduced at Macworld. One model is larger and includes a keyboard for sending email and scrolling the Web, says Rob Enderle, principal analyst at the Enderle Group of San Jose, Calif.

The other is slimmer, comes without a keyboard and could ship first. Both will be able to download music and video from iTunes.

"We hope to hear some more product details from the company" on the phones, says Ingrid Ebeling, an analyst at JMP Securities who doesn't own Apple stock and whose firm doesn't conduct banking business with the company.

One key detail will be how Apple plans to market the phones. Some analysts expect the company to strike deals with wireless carriers, who will sell the phones in their stores nationwide. Others suggest Apple will enter an MVNO arrangement as a mobile virtual network operator and run its own network, much as Walt Disney Co. (DIS) has done.

It is these arrangements, some suggest, that could sideline the product's introduction.

"We believe (the phone) is real," says Richard Doherty, director at the research firm Envisioneering Group in Seaford, N.Y. "We don't think they have completed their negotiation with cellular carriers yet."

A large-screen iPod has been the subject of rumors for months, and analysts say it is likely to be displayed at Macworld. The screen is expected to be substantially larger than the ones on today's iPods, and product features are anticipated to include touch-screen controls and wireless connections to a PC or network - a capability already in Microsoft's new Zune music player.

Some analysts, such as Jonathan Hoopes of ThinkEquity Partners, say they will be eager to hear what Jobs says about his business model for television and movies. In September, Apple showed off a prototype of its iTV product for moving video, photos and music from the PC and the iPod to the television and stereo.

No additional living room entertainment products are expected, but the question to ask is how Apple anticipates its living room strategy will lead to an increase in computer sales, says Hoopes, who doesn't own Apple shares and whose firm doesn't perform banking business for the company.

The answer may involve Leopard. Doherty says Jobs may demonstrate how Leopard includes features to search for and manage video and audio content. Additional insight might lie in the address that Robert Iger, chief executive of Apple's content partner Disney, will give at CES on Monday afternoon.

For the computer, Leopard is likely to include virtualization technology designed to let Macintosh machines more easily run Windows programs. Apple now relies on a more cumbersome program called Boot Camp, and virtualization could be a nice surprise, says Ebeling.

The need for such a program is so evident that EMC Corp.'s (EMC) VMware unit released a beta test version of a virtualization product for the Macintosh late last month, in time for the show.

Expectations for Macworld are already high on Wall Street, and Apple's stock could take a hit if the company fails to come out with a cellphone. Nevertheless, Jobs' discussion of video is likely to have a big impact well beyond the crowded show.

"The shoe will drop in San Francisco, but the rumble is going to be heard in Las Vegas," Doherty says.

-By Mark Boslet, Dow Jones Newswires; 650-496-1366; [email protected]

[ScottishTrader]

Welcome to the era of the iPhone... this thing is going to knock the socks off 2007.  Shame it'll only be available from June!!!  Oh, also AppleTV, looks like it will make a strong stand in the living room.  Just wit for the halo effect from these bad boys....

www.apple.com

Finally, Apple Computer Inc. is now Apple Inc - they ain't just computers no more!!

Seems like people liked what they heard... AAPL currently trading at 91.20, up almost $6.  I think we will see new all-time highs either this week or next, with earnings on their way.  Am real glad I bought my shares back in the low 80s again   Maybe I can make enough for an iPhone

[nullzero]

crazy... I was wasting my time shorting this is the 60s baclk a while I should of bought and went long then. Up over 7%... this stock is the new goog for consumer electronics. That iphone is going to sell out like crazy

[ScottishTrader]

Man it is a thing of beauty and I want one NOW (how many other people are thinking that??? you bet - MILLIONS!!!!)