KOMG

[la-onda]

KOMG: Short Interest UP 20.8% to 9.7M in Nov 2005
Friday , November 25, 2005 13:18 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Komag Inc (NasdaqNM: KOMG) INCREASED 20.8% to 9,728,017 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL      OCTOBER        NOVEMBER       CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
KOMG           8,054,158       9,728,017      +1,673,859       +20.78%           8

Based on KOMG's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,328,595, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.
very low volume on friday!

updated chart:

[valueseeker]

Bought KOMG back a week following the announcement of Cisco's acquisition of Scientific-Atlanta. I believe Cisco will make SA set-top-box TIVO like and hence drive up the disk demand for storing video. People will throw away the VCRs pretty soon. :-)

Kudo to Mikael for this outstanding pick!

[Melf Elf]

Based on KOMG's 20-day average daily share volume of 1,328,595, it would require approximately 8 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Oliver,

Thanks for your updates this weekend.  Applause.  Interesting information on the short interest. 

During the 40% correction in KOMG from August to October, the fundamentals and the short interest were trumped by the chart/technicals, which looked awful. 

Bearish Move #9: On Record Revenues, and what appears to be a real decent earnings report (quick skim), KOMG has taken out the recent low of 25.48, and was down over $2.00 in early trading.

KOMG currently is BID 25.02...ASK 25.03, down $1.98.

"In a bearish trend, the bears are right to short." 

What we've got now in KOMG, however, is at least 3 Bull Moves:

#1. Broke above the August down trendline.

#2. Broke out above the November Ascending Triangle.

#3. Ascending Triangle Target of 33.60 MADE.

Sold at 33.60, the Ascending Triangle target, which also is the neckline from the H&S top. 

Gain: 14.9%.

Short-term, KOMG has some resistance here.  I'd like to re-enter on a pullback, if I can.  With the chart now acting bullish and with decent underlying fundamentals, that kind of increase in short interest that you posted could help to boost the stock. 

I would suspect that the rally from the Ascending Triangle breakout to the target of 33.60 was fueled, at least in part, by some short-covering.  That rally was from November 17-22.  The short interest that you posted was as of November 15, I believe (that used to be the report date; don't know if it still is).  Even so, that still would leave some "days to cover" remaining, I would think.

[LuckyFish]

KOMG on the move today.  I guesss it's on a few newsletters buy list.  The one I get recommended it as a buy above 33.75 with 39 as 1st target and 47 as 2nd target.  Listed it as high risk though!  Bought some options on it today.
Brigitte

[la-onda]

good luck Brigitte;

updated short list link (more detailed):
http://www.shortsqueeze.com/index.php?PHPSESSID=97600785f06345a569dd309f95897980&symbol=komg

[la-onda]

Komag to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference

Wednesday, November 30, 2005 16:00 ET

SAN JOSE, Calif., Nov 30, 2005 /PRNewswire-FirstCall via COMTEX/ -- Komag, Incorporated (Nasdaq: KOMG), a leading independent supplier of thin-film media for disk drives, today announced that the Company will participate in the following investor conference:

(Logo:  http://www.newscom.com/cgi-bin/prnh/19990816/KOMGLOGO )

     Event:     Lehman Brothers 2005 Global Technology Conference
     Date:      Thursday, December 8, 2005
     Time:      4:00 p.m. PST (7:00 p.m. EST)
     Location:  San Francisco, California

Live and archived webcast of the presentation will be available under Webcasts and Events in the Investors Section of Komag's website at http://www.komag.com .

[la-onda]

 
KOMG: Bear Stearns Ups to Peer Perform from Underperform; Analyst Notes
Friday , December 02, 2005 07:43 ET
Issuer: Komag Inc (NasdaqNM: KOMG)
Analyst Firm:  Bear Stearns Cos.
Ratings Action: UPGRADE
Current Rating: Peer Perform (from Underperform)
Analyst Comments: The firm upgraded the stock based on stronger PC demand, low channel inventories, benign pricing, and tight supply.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.8bbd2beba8f7b5ca8cad0dacc1a31aa099daafac20e56fced712abde0828a246

[la-onda]

 
Western Digital Amends Volume Purchase Pact With Komag


DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
December 2, 2005 7:04 p.m.

WASHINGTON -- Western Digital Corp. (WDC) amended its volume purchase agreement with Komag Inc. (KOMG), the data storage device company said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing Friday.
Under the amended agreement, Komag will increase the number of components it supplies to Western Digital. Western Digital didn't disclose the number of components Komag will supply it with under the amended agreement.
Komag supplies thin-film disks, the primary high-capacity storage medium for digital data, for disk drives.
The agreement is good news for Komag. In late October, as reported by Dow Jones, Komag's shares fell 10% in trading after Bear Stearns downgraded the hard disk-drive sector, saying there are concerns about weakening industry conditions.
Western Digital said the amended agreement is part of an ongoing effort to "diligently" work with strategic suppliers to ensure adequate supply of key components for its hard drives.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/051202/wdc8-k.html

[Michael]

Hi Oliver,

Thanks for keeping us all updated. Komag is really a great story. Try to read the Bear Stearns upgrade again:

The firm upgraded the stock based on stronger PC demand, low channel inventories, benign pricing, and tight supply.

Based on this they give them a neutral rating. Hmmmm.... forward PE is around 10. With strong demand, tight supply, low inventories, increased production capacity and the latest amendment of their contract with Western Digital I think it should trade at a PE of 30.

This stock is driven by the fundamentals and they are stellar. Here is what IDC has to say about storage demand:

SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - The market for computer disk storage systems grew a record 12.5 percent in the third quarter amid surging demand by businesses to secure a growing mountain of data, market researcher IDC reported.

Demand for computer storage has been gaining as companies are forced to back up vast amounts of e-mails, documents and other data to comply with new regulations such as the U.S. Sarbanes-Oxley Act aimed at improving corporate accountability. Businesses also are investing in storage to protect data from disasters such as hurricanes and earthquakes.

Total third-quarter disk storage grew 58 percent to 505 petabytes, IDC said. A petabyte is equal to 1 million gigabytes, which in turn is about the same as 25,000 notebook computers each holding 40 gigabytes.

And we are sitting on the company that has the key to meet this surge in demand.

Below is the weekly chart for KOMG. As it can be seen the blip in the chart caused by Bear Sterns downgrade is just noise. Komag will continue the uptrend started last year now when it is increasingly clear that the future for the HDD industry is brighter than ever.

We have record short interest in KOMG many of those short positions were initiated by Bear Sterns Downgrade so I guess that the latest BS upgrade should shake the short community a bit especially now when they are deep under water.

[la-onda]

update:
KOMG: Baird Starts @ Neutral; Sets Tgt @ $40; Analyst Notes

Thursday , December 08, 2005 07:51 ET
Issuer: Komag Inc (NasdaqNM: KOMG)
Analyst Firm:  Robert W. Baird & Co.
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Neutral
Target Price Action: INITIATE
Target Price: $40.00
Analyst Comments: The firm would wait for a more attractive entry point to buy shares heading into the seasonally weaker period of the year.
This rating information was reported by TheFlyOnTheWall.

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.f8921c11444cd0aed3030271b58e9c583b6d0dfc4660f829ed15caec65f778d4

[Michael]

Hi Oliver,

A few interesting news points in the 8K filled on Wednesday

The first new production equipment is fully installed, qualified and producing disks. The remaining equipment for this capacity expansion is expected to be delivered by the end of the fourth quarter of 2005 and qualified for production during the first quarter of 2006, resulting in total media capacity of 31 million disks per quarter. Based on the current equipment installation and qualification schedule, there could be some modest upside to the Company's manufacturing capacity in the fourth quarter of 2005, which may have the potential for some revenue improvement as compared to the prior guidance for the fourth quarter of 2005, if demand remains strong through the end of December 2005.

Great to see that they might profit from the capacity increase already in this quarter. The capacity will be increased with 15% from next quarter. I would assume that the bottom line effect would be higher as overhead would fall as a percentage of revenue.

The Company's second capacity expansion, targeted primarily for second half of 2006, is also on schedule to meet commitments to customers and to exit the fourth quarter of 2006 with total expected capacity of approximately 40 million disks per quarter. In addition, the Company recently entered into an incremental strategic expansion with an existing customer for a further modest capacity increase scheduled for early 2007.

That is a 48% increase in capacity and according to the latest CC this capacity increase is part of strategic supply agreements signed with several companies whereas the companies not only have made commitment to buy certain levels of media but also made prepayments to finance the capacity expansion. (hmmmm... talking about a strong market position!!!!)

The consensus EPS estimate for 2006 is 3.64, which seems very low even taking into consideration that KOMG will have to start paying tax during next year (but the analysts has consistently underestimated Komag's earning power).

Mike

[valueseeker]

Michael,

An excellent pick here. I am up more than 20% on this one, thanks to you!

It looks like people are assigning a low PE for KOMG (PE=10?). Maybe institutions are accumulating and shorts are slowly covering. I am thinking about adding more.


-Louis

[la-onda]

conspirancy  yesterday BNT; today KOMG:

KOMG: Matrix Cuts to Hold from Buy
Tuesday , December 13, 2005 08:49 ET
Issuer: Komag Inc (NasdaqNM: KOMG)
Analyst Firm:  Matrix
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Hold (from Buy)

http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.cc72bb506758e7e9cf37cb50dbe46989a5087b0395e35c94a644a0f802e0a7cb

I will keep on holding 
Why?
check this one:
http://finance.messages.yahoo.com/bbs?.mm=FN&action=m&board=1605313763&tid=komg&sid=1605313763&mid=3698

cheers
Oliver

[la-onda]

KOMG: JP Morgan Starts @ Neutral; Analyst Notes

Tuesday , December 20, 2005 08:45 ET
Issuer: Komag Inc (NasdaqNM: KOMG)
Analyst Firm:  JP Morgan
Ratings Action: INITIATE
Current Rating: Neutral
Analyst Comments: The firm believes the positive news on the stock has already priced in shares. They also feel the recent operating upside could have headwinds in 2006.


http://www.knobias.com/individual/public/news.htm?eid=3.1.9753eb3adb72d95f7df3d88499a44ee1e4a524bc0c37d9fdb7e016c9607555f3

[domination]

awesome