SIGA - Sector: Healthcare---Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[wontfindaname]

Thanks. I still don't know what is causing this and when I need to get out. Waiting for the PR. I think this must be the Pharmathene lawsuit being dismissed. I expect a PR around 2:00 PM because that's when they usually release it.

[Melf Elf]

Nice call, wontfindaname.

The breakout of this Descending Triangle is at 3.665, so a gap up opening above that will put 4.09 IN PLAY (the top of the pattern), and 4.38 IN PLAY (measured move) if you're looking for targets to take profits, and to defend against a "Gap To Crap" opening.

Good luck!

[etercnoc]

Could it be the WHO report that came out. It states that SIGA246 is 8000 times better then any other.Im just guessing thats whats causes this.I feel this has a long way to go over the next year or so.

[Se7en]

Could it be the WHO report that came out. It states that SIGA246 is 8000 times better then any other.Im just guessing thats whats causes this.I feel this has a long way to go over the next year or so.

Isn't this report already a few days old, would be strange if the reaction to it is so late, must be something else imo ...

[etercnoc]

Yea you may be right.Looks like its fading off now.Guess we will just have to wait and see.  ;DHAVE A GOOD DAY

[etercnoc]

Has anyone called investors relations at SIGA?
Maybe theres a new deal with major pharma or buyout offer.
Something caused this gap on volume and this 3.80s settle.

[wontfindaname]

I did. They think it might be the WHO report which is finally garnering some attention.

[Se7en]

I did. They think it might be the WHO report which is finally garnering some attention.

Did they say something else, other news coming or ...?

[wontfindaname]

They didn't mention any other news.

However, from a post on the Yahoo board, somebody posted that they spoke to the CEO earlier this week and they were told that papers were filed against the Pharmathene complaint 10 days ago and they can expect it to be dismissed soon. Also, new animal efficacy tests were scheduled to begin on Jan 9th, the results of which should be out soon.

An interesting note from today's trading is that we bounced off of the 76.4% retracement of today's gain at 3.66.

[Se7en]

Still holding here and I think(hope) we will be rewarded soon ... 

Here's the link to the WHO report (chapter 7) for those who haven't seen it yet.


http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/WHOCDSEPR2007_1.pdf

7. Candidate antiviral drugs
7.1 Dr Dennis Hruby reviewed data available on the discovery and development of ST-246, a new candidate antiviral drug. The drug is 8000 times more potent than Cidofovir, can be delivered orally and is relatively easy to synthesize. It is effective against all tested orthopoxviruses, preventing the wrapping of intracellular mature virus (IMV) by intracellular membranes and thereby the formation of extracellular virus particles. The target of the drug is F13 (according to the nomenclature used for the vaccinia Copenhagen strain), a protein essential for the production of extracellular enveloped virus.

7.2 ST-246 is highly effective when given 4–72 hours post infection with a range of
orthopoxviruses in small rodents. It can be used prophylactically and therapeutically and can even be given simultaneous with vaccination, without interfering with the immune response to the vaccine.

7.3 Studies for gaining regulatory approval of the drug are now in progress. The drug has a long biological half life of approximately 18 hours which suggests that a once-a-day
oral regimen might be sufficient. Current information suggests that its bioavailability is good and that there are no adverse side effects. In vitro tests show that the antiviral effects of ST-246 are reproducible across different variola virus strains. Drug resistance to ST-246 can occur with an estimated frequency of 2.5 x 10-6. ST-246 is considered superior to Cidofovir preparations, which are in a more advanced state of drug approval.

7.4 Initial studies indicate that ST-246 is inherently stable and so strategies for creating stockpiles can be developed.

7.5 Dr John Huggins then gave an overview of the current status of antiviral drug development using the current monkeypox and non-human primate variola virus disease models. ST-246 was clearly seen as the drug of choice but Cidofovir could be used as the test case for licensure issues, particularly because its safety in humans did not need to be established. Cidofovir had a proven efficacy with respect to orthopoxvirus infections and protocols had been submitted to the US FDA for consideration under the Special Protocol Assessment Provision. If successful, this will enable the drug manufacturer (Gilead Sciences) to submit a proposal for regulatory approval for this indication. This will be done in parallel with further work on ST-246.

7.6 It was noted that ST-246 was a non-toxic inhibitor of variola virus spread that can be given orally. Clinical safety will be determined in humans and efficacy studies will be performed in non-human primate models of variola virus and monkeypox virus to support an application for orphan drug status of the compound. However, oral drugs may not be well tolerated in severely ill individuals and hence alternative formulations of ST-246 may need to be developed, which can be administered via different routes.
The fact that ST-246 was highly specific in inhibiting the spread of orthopoxviruses was emphasized, as was that this could result in its wider deployment as a potent antiviral compound. Overall, ST-246 looked like an excellent drug candidate that has provided solid protection against challenge by different orthopoxviruses, including variola virus, in all models examined.

[etercnoc]

Also PharmAthene has moved on and is going public with another company.Looks like to me we should start getting alot of good news reports soon.Market cap has along was to go ,JMHO

[Melf Elf]

The breakout of this Descending Triangle is at 3.665, so a gap up opening above that will put 4.09 IN PLAY (the top of the pattern), and 4.38 IN PLAY (measured move) if you're looking for targets to take profits, and to defend against a "Gap To Crap" opening.

It was a "Gap To Crap" opening.  4.09 MADE at the open.  4.38 still is IN PLAY.

The breakout of this Descending Triangle is at 3.665,

The low of the day, after the "Gap To Crap" high of 4.22, was 3.66, right at the top of the pattern.

During the past two sessions, the top of the pattern has been support.  I like that.

SIGA is indicated at BID 3.88...ASK 3.89.

I don't like it well enough to pay that price, but I'll pay 3.78, if they'll let me have it.

[Melf Elf]

Bought SIGA at 3.78.  Stop: 3.59.  Risk: a loss of 5%.

[Se7en]

Glad to see you aboard Melf, good luck to all of us!

[Melf Elf]

Glad to see you aboard Melf, good luck to all of us!

Se7en,

Thanks.  Yes, good luck to all of us! 

I've been impressed that SIGA has been using the top of the pattern as support, rather than filling the big gap from the "Gap To Crap" last Friday.

I planned to buy it this morning on a print of 3.77, a tick above yesterday's high.

When I saw it indicated at BID 3.88 - ASK 3.90, I figured that I had a chance to get it at 3.78, in case 3.77 was hit on the BID, and that it would bang off there, and go higher.

It took a long time to get filled at 3.78.  They filled me in 3 different batches, maybe 15-30 seconds apart, so that looked like a good indication that I probably got in near the low of the day.

At worst, I thought we'd fill 3.74, from yesterday's close.

NOPE.  We retraced it all, and went red.

Right now, it's looking like I bought near the top of another "Gap To Crap!" 

Curses!   

3.62 and 3.63 are the lows of the past two days' test of the top of the pattern, so I'll stop it out under there.  We "could" find support a little below there, but I don't want to sit here guessing, with that gap yawning below us. 

We made a "higher high" this morning, above yesterday's candle, so if we now go down and take out those 3.62 - 3.63 lows, I'll take the 5% hit.  I won't like that.

It would be nice if we could rally back to the high 3.70s/3.80s at the close.