AVII - Sector: Healthcare --- Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[David Randolph]

I knew this was weak. I considered selling to buy back lower (at the ascending trendline, which for today stands at $3.10), but I'm not such a fast trader and I don't think it will go below $3.

I'll continue to hold AVII.

[SmartWrasse]

This is from the moderated Yahoo message board, and quoted from a WS analyst some time ago (Richard Macary from LLC Collectibles -clipped from a repost   )

... we believe that AVI management has definitely made some major missteps on the partnership front,
they mishandled the expectations of investors and also entered into
some questionable financing transactions from a timing perspective
(particularly their latest PIPE deal, which seemed egregious in its
timing and structure)....
...it is rare that a technology can
eclipse the shortcomings of management, but that is exactly what we
expect to happen during 2005 with AVI...
...we believe positive results, particularly
relating to the Ebola trial, will cause a significant upward move in
the stock price (likely into the $5 to $8 range...
...AVI's success, just in
the area of bio terror agents could easily push the stock to a $500
million to $1 billion market cap by the end of 2005...
...regarding AVI's core
Neugene technology, the ramifications to the medical and biotech
communities will be historic and potentially disruptive. We realize
that such a conclusion and prediction are at odds with the perceived
reality in the industry...

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the fundamental insight into AVII SmartWrasse 

For me AVII presents a simple trading plan: hold it for as long as the stock closes above the ascending trendline on the chart below. Today that trendline will be standing at $3.15.

[David Randolph]

I want to get away from specific stories that did well during the last decline phase from the general market.

AVII is an Avian Flu play and I'm not interested in playing this anymore, because I think the general market will rise to new highs, and these specific stories will be forgotten over the short term, unless something really serious happens and I don't want to trade expecting that.

So I'll sell AVII around today's open.

[Lusitano]

Hi.

Do you think that AVII is still interesting today?
I bought it at 3.19 on the 21th, and i didn´t sell it when it wen't to 4.
So, now i'm wondering if its still a good bet...
I would apreciate your opinion.

Thanks.

[setravis]

Is this blast off day.....
Active in the pre-market.
+19.33%.......Volume @......655,398

[jorgegr]

Seems it's time to get into this one again.

jorgegr

[Amarens]

Finally out, pfff. Did not sell with David on the 31st. Saw his post too late and was also not able to watch the market. Saw it going down  .

Held on because of the bird flu still being in play and hoping for some news.

Sold today for $ 4,10, making app. 20%  . Need the money for other plays 

Amarens

[guitarman]

Barrons covered this one.
Interesting proprietary technology and they said that the company looked good as an acquisition.

[David Randolph]

AVII is actually the strongest of the 3 Bird Flu related stocks, because it just made a 50% retracement, while the other two I used to own (NVAX and HEB), had a correction to the 61.8% retracement level.

I'm buying it back again around today's open, 6.66% of the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio, as always.

[la-onda]

additional information:
AVII: Short Interest UP 255.9% to 1.8M in Nov 2005

Friday , November 25, 2005 13:16 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for AVI BioPharma Inc (NasdaqNM: AVII) INCREASED 255.9% to 1,808,208 shares for the month ended mid-November, 2005.

SYMBOL    OCTOBER        NOVEMBER          CHANGE       %CHANGE  DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
AVII             508,052       1,808,208      +1,300,156      +255.91%           1
Based on AVII's 20-day average daily share volume of 2,081,395, it would require approximately 1 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the info la-onda  (applaud)

AVII didn't rose as much as the others, I think this was due to less liquidity and less notoriety.

But, as I said, AVII shows relative strength within its peers, so probably it will end up higher than the other two (well, I hope they all rise).

AVII chart seems to be developing an ascending triangle, between an ascending trendline and the recent highs. I'll be looking for a bullish breakout, and use the ascending trendline as a safety net.

The ascending trendline for today stands at $3.25, which is also a short term support, if the stock is set to close below $3.25 I'll take a small loss. If not, I'll continue holding and expecting a bullish breakout above the $4.04 - $4.11 zone.

[David Randolph]

I really don't know why, but insiders are buying stocks in NVAX, HEB and AVII, which is great. Perhaps they know something for the future we don't.

AVII was up almost 6% yesterday, and as I said, it is the strongest of the three, because its pullback stopped at the 50% retracement level, instead of the 61.8%.

The ascending trendline stands at $3.36 today, I'll continue holding for as long as the stock is set to close above this ascending trendline.

[David Randolph]

I told you AVII was the strongest of the three  It was also down on Friday, but not nearly as much as the other two more «momentum» stocks.

Today I'm a little short in time for these updates (some problems at a personal business that I have to take care before lunch), I'll just say that the plan of holding for as long as the stock is set to close above the ascending trendline is to be kept.

[setravis]

Time to do a little update on this one.
Cited in Barron's as big play in the budding flu stock trade,
if Barron's is right on the potential, this could be a very big winner.
Note that the new trend is an ascending channel of higher highs and higher lows since late September.

Support @ $3.75...3.63...3.48
Resistance @ $4.01




Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
8.73%above 13-day EMA
18.91%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 98 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $156.85 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: 03/07/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Sell < The analyst has me puzzled with that rating!!!