CNXT - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Semiconductors

[Melf Elf]

Please keep up with your added analysis. Your teaching me some good stuff.

basanlas,

Thanks, I learn something every day, like reading shawFund's analysis of the semiconductor stocks that are doing well, and the ones that are not.  The sector is "mixed."

I'm focusing on the SMH because it's "a basket of stocks," and it helps me to assess, overall, who is winning: bulls or bears?  It helps me to assess CNXT's chances for an upside breakout above the neckline of its Inverse H&S pattern. 

In the SMH, the bears clearly are winning, with those well-defined Four Bear Moves, and with the SMH still below the broken neckline of that H&S Top, so that would seem to hurt CNXT's chances for a breakout.

Here's why I say that.  Just as in a bull market, "a rising tide can lift all boats," (like the dogs in the oil sector that had no earnings, but still had a great rally in the late spring because the sector was bullish), stocks like CNXT that have improved earnings, but are in a bearish sector, can go down "in sympathy" with the sector.

If the SMH at least could get back above that neckline and stay there, it would take the pressure of the sector, and CNXT's chances would improve, in my view.

EDIT: Anecdotally, note on the INTC chart that MER rated it a buy ahead of earnings, and that earnings were good.  INTC making a new low for the move yesterday, given those factors, isn't bullish. 

[422fwhp]

I enjoy reading and absorbing everything, too....keep up the good work all.

Jody

[David Randolph]

Thanks for the great analysis 

The chart on the semiconductor index is bearish, as Melf Elf says. But the market is heavily short at this moment, in fact, shorts are at an all time record. That's a bullish factor, according to Contrary Opinion Theory and Sentiment Analysis (I'll write more about this later).

Anyway, CNXT is bullish in a bearish sector. I agree with Melf Elf when he says the stock has less chances of a bullish breakout being in an overall bearish sector. But it is also true that, showing relative strength, CNXT would probably be one of the stocks that would rise the most if its sector suddenly turns bullish.

I see this trade as a high reward/low risk proposition. I wonder if CNXT will be able to break $2 this week?

[ncham]

Yee-haw! Great pick.

[setravis]

Breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle (continuation)

Yee-haw! Great pick.

[ScottishTrader]

and we got our answer to that question this morning - nice breakout above 1.97, now standing at 2.10.  Looks like CNXT is showing its true colours.  Just have to keep an eye out, as it has had failed breaks of 2.00 in the past.  At the moment 2.09-2.10 seems to be holding though

[Terliso]

I don't wanna think too much ...i'll take a position tomorrow 

applaud setravis...

[setravis]

I don't wanna think too much ...i'll take a position tomorrow 

applaud setravis...

Applaud back at you...for pulling the trigger!

Nice Move today......Breakout!!!!!!
Support @ $1.84...1.80....1.76
Resistance @ $1.90...1.94...2.07

Recent CandleStick Analysis    Very Bullish
Oct-27-2005 Bullish Harami 
Oct-24-2005 Bearish Engulfing 

Technicals
Most Actives
Percentage Gainer
MACD is Bullish

Last Price Quote is:
15.37%above 13-day EMA
19.86%above 50-day EMA
RS Rating: 85 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $899.48 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: 2.56098 
Next Earnings: 01/25/2006
Last Analyst Rating: Buy

[setravis]

Nice move today.
Great looking Breakout from the Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) Pattern
All my comments can be found here...not going to do a re-write

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1207.15

[redchipper1]

Jim Cramer pumped CNXT on Mad Money tonight, indicating he thought it will go to 2.50 soon.

[Melf Elf]

What a nice day for CNXT.  Good going, David!

The SMH went back above the broken neckline of its H&S top while CNXT had a breakout above what looks like a 15-month Inverse H&S pattern.  Technically, the volume in the right shoulder is too much to qualify, but otherwise, it sure looks like one.   

It's a nice, broad base.  "The bigger the base...the better the breakout."

EDIT: I liked seeing 2.18 get printed.  It took until 3:58PM, two minutes before the close, but that print was a penny above the July 18 high of 2.17, so it was "a higher high." 

The close was 2.16, but that was good enough to be a close above the November 19, 2004 (2.23) -July 18, 2005 (2.17) neclkine/trendline.  That looks good.

Volume was more than double average daily volume on the breakout.  That looks good, too.

[David Randolph]

Thanks for your comments Melf Elf, CNXT is indeed looking good 

It's curious like JDSU, CMGI and ATML, stocks that I was buying near the lows, took me out of them before they actually started to rise in a meaningfull way. The same thing here with CNXT, the stock was already bullish before (my sense told me it was going up, but my reasoning took me out of it) but still it was able to shake me out.

Fortunately I came back to buy it, nevermind it was at an higher price.

The lesson I take out of this is that it is really hard to pick bottoms in stocks. Much better to wait for a new bullish trend to start, like it is happening now with CNXT.

No doubt I will continue holding CNXT.

[rurouni]

Hi All,

I see that the MACD indicator is bullish and volume is picking up.  The MA also looks good.  However, RSI is above 70 and the currect price is nearing 52 weeks high.  Does this concerns you?  If not, please state why and how long do you estimated the trend to last?

Please don't take this question the wrong way.  I am not trying to correct anyone.  I am trying to learn why a certain indicator can be ignored or overrided.

Thanks.

[setravis]

Let's rock CNXT...
+6.48%.......Volume @......5,833,891

[setravis]

Rock on CNXT....
Comments located here.

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1207.15