CNXT - Sector: Technology --- Industry: Semiconductors

[tokyopua]

hi,
iam looking for an entry around 213- 215 support.
maxi

I sold today at 2.23 and also look to buy again around 2.14 area.  Lets hope we get filled Maxi 

[rickjust]

hi,
may miss out today, already 16mil traded with lots of buyers coming in at 220. but i don't want to chase it . if i miss it today i will look for monday
maxi

[Ramsburg]

Update:
CNXT on the move because of this news:
- Conexant Gets Supply Pact From Motorola

The stock opened with a Gap up, reaching a high of $2.27, but not holding above $2.20. We don't pretty much enjoy this gap ups because of news, the stock will most likely close the opened gap in order to consolidate the move.
So, we are going to upgrade our stop level from $1.92 to $2.10, to decrease our risk in this position, and assure we'll lock a profit no matter what. Bellow the gap zone, the support level is now at $1.97 and $2.03.

Trading Plan:
Hold CNXT with a stop @ $2.10

[Melf Elf]

So, we are going to upgrade our stop level from $1.92 to $2.10, to decrease our risk in this position, and assure we'll lock a profit no matter what. Bellow the gap zone, the support level is now at $1.97 and $2.03.

Trading Plan:
Hold CNXT with a stop @ $2.10

Frederick,

I like that.   We want to ensure a gain out of this, now that we got the breakout.  You'll come out of it with a 10½% gain, if stopped out, which is a very nice profit. 

My exit strategy locks me into about a 7.7% gain, if I'm stopped out.

I'm long from 1.91, a penny higher than you.  Friday, I took an 18.3% gain on 25% of my position when the 2.26 target MADE (posted on the Stock Picking Board since I had a temporary problem accessing this board...thanks for fixing it). 

For the stop on the remaining 75% of my position:

[Yes, quite a number of hits to those trendlines.  The top of the pattern will be about 2.01 for tomorrow, so it would be good to see that hold, on any re-test.

The top of the pattern for Thursday actually was 2.009.  The low Thursday was 2.01, for an exact hit. CNXT keeps hitting those trendlines, as we've discussed, and that particular hit said:

"Remember how the top of the pattern was validated RESISTANCE? (red arrows)  Well, with that exact hit at the  2.01 low (green arrow), that trendline now is validated SUPPORT."

I like that, and it's also one of the reasons that I like to play very liquid stocks (high volume), like this one.  CNXT is a "trading favorite," and traders know where these trendlines are, which accounts, in large part, for all of the "direct hits" that we've gotten.  Traders sell at resistance, and on Thursday, they stepped up and bought support at 2.01.

Now that we've gotten that re-test validation of the breakout, we don't want to see 2.00 get printed, because that violates the 2.01 validated support.

However, in this particluar case, 2.00 happens to be a bit "ticklish," and I'm putting my stop at 1.99 because:

1. The top of the Symmetrical Triangle has a downward slope, so it comes in today at 2.00.  We "could" get a stop-busting fakeout print of 2.00, which actually would be another trendline validation, if CXNT tags it, and runs higher again.

2. Players tend to buy round numbers (2.00), and tend to have their stops under round numbers (so, 1.99).

If I'm stopped out at 1.99, that's a gain of 4.2% on the remaining 75% of the position.  With the 18.3% on 25% of the position, taken on Friday, the gain on the trade will be 7.7%.

Sorry to have been so tedious about this, but I know that some of you are wanting to learn how to "run your business of trading."  Learn how to make decisions about "when to sell....why am I sellling at that price," etc.

If I'm stopped out, Frederick will have a better gain than I will.  We have different exit strategies, and they both are perfectly fine.  It's all good when you have a gain, and there isn't "one right answer" about where to take profits.  Decide how much you want, as your "minimum" gain, which is what Frederick and I both have done.

There's every reason to suspect that Friday's candle is a Bearish Doji Star Hangman, that the gap will get filled, and that CNXT "could" breakdown below pattern support.

Frederick's selling at 2.10 and locking in a 10½% gain is a great exit strategy, and I applaud it.

Good luck, everybody!

 

[tokyopua]

I sold last Friday at 2.23, and put in a limit order for the gap close at 2.14.  Just missed that then changed the order and got filled at 2.15.  But I might not have tried this if I didnt have the 30 free trades per month with Bank of America    I am starting to do more trades with that account, while using my Power Etrade Pro platform to actually watch Level II.

[Ramsburg]

I sold last Friday at 2.23, and put in a limit order for the gap close at 2.14.  Just missed that then changed the order and got filled at 2.15.  But I might not have tried this if I didnt have the 30 free trades per month with Bank of America    I am starting to do more trades with that account, while using my Power Etrade Pro platform to actually watch Level II.

Toky, you have been doing some great moves around some of our picks  (applaud)

regards,

[tokyopua]

I sold last Friday at 2.23, and put in a limit order for the gap close at 2.14.  Just missed that then changed the order and got filled at 2.15.  But I might not have tried this if I didnt have the 30 free trades per month with Bank of America    I am starting to do more trades with that account, while using my Power Etrade Pro platform to actually watch Level II.

Toky, you have been doing some great moves around some of our picks  (applaud)

regards,

Thanks for the applauds Rams, I am just using what I have learned here at 3SOF and from Nison's Candlestick book (which I read because of the 3SOF recommendation)! 

Also, as I mentioned, the Bank of America free trades are helping me now to not worry about commission at all when I make these kind of moves.  If any other members on the east coast of the US are interested, here is the thread I started about that to track my experience with it and give some details:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7052.msg73854#msg73854

[tokyopua]

hi,
may miss out today, already 16mil traded with lots of buyers coming in at 220. but i don't want to chase it . if i miss it today i will look for monday
maxi

I got filled at 2.15 after missing 2.14 today, hope you got filled too Maxi!   

[rickjust]

hi,
i let this one go . i didn't like fridays candle . all those shares traded and no price movement.
didn't feel comfortable so moving on for now.
maxi

[Ramsburg]

Update:
CNXT continues to show strength, the stock filled the opened gap, and kept its trend to the upside, managing to close on positive territory again.
I was afraid our aggressive trailing stop would be triggered, but so far, so good.

If this swing is here to perform, and we manage not to get stopped at $2.10, we can expect to see CNXT (from a pure technical approach) hitting something like $2.55, which is the projection of the long symmetrical triangle pattern, so we'll be introducing a suggested exit zone at this time.

A few news were out yesterday:
- Conexant Expands Industry-Leading DSL Portfolio with World's Most Feature-Rich ADSL2plus Central Office Solution
- Readers' Picks: TheStreet.com's Top 10
- Conexant Completes Private Offering of Senior Secured Notes

Trading Plan:
Hold CNXT with a stop @ $2.10 (suggested exit price near $2.50)

[Melf Elf]

(suggested exit price near $2.50)

Frederick,

2.50 is close to 2.479, which is the .382 Fibonacci Retracement of the April-August decline.

2.41 is today's data point for the rising dotted blue line, in case the Blue Symmetrical Triangle morphs into a channel.

2.58 is the declining 200DMA.

2.68 is IN PLAY from the Blue Symmetrical Triangle Breakout.  That might be a bit ambitious, given that the 50/200 DMAs are so badly inverted.

Given the breakout, I'm thinking that we at least ought to get the 2.41-2.479.

[ScottishTrader]

Some movement came today though.  Yesterdays candle made a nice little gap fill, and CNXT was looking strong above 2.26 resistance today.  However, pulled back and closed right at 2.26.  Still, if we break that (and I think we will), the 2.66 symmetrical triangle target is IN PLAY, and not a huge amount of resistance between here and 2.50 either.  Lets go CNXT!!!

Tokyopua, glad you are in on this one too!!   (by the way, I found out what the pua is all about - f****ing brilliant, laughed my a$$ off, and lets just say i'm starting working on getting myself to gpua status - do you think we should start a "3 stocks on pua"  I seem to be really good at picking them up, but I always seem to crash and burn!!! )  Just gotta keep the head cool

[setravis]

Back above 13/50 MA, Volume will increase and updraft on horizon.....
Let's knock out that resistance @ $2.26

52wk Range: 1.60 - 3.90
Volume: 18,874,468
Avg Vol (3m): 15,392,000

Technicals
Most Actives

Last Price Quote is:
10.81%above 13-day MA
13.97%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: 91  

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $854.42  
P/E Ratio: NA  
PEG Ratio: 4.85  
Next Earnings: 01/24/2007
Last Analyst Rating: Hold

The coil is getting tighter....
Could be ready to pop and rock.

BreakOut !
Target $3 to 5 stop $1.95. Breakout to a new local high. MACD positive and rising.

[Ramsburg]

Update:
Nice day for CNXT, closing at a new high for this up swing, volume was consistent, and momentum looks solid.
We are tightening up a bit our trading plan, giving a higher stop and a lower «suggested» sell price, just regular procedure for this kind of trade. We bought CNXT waiting for a momentum run, but somehow we had to wait a bit longer than expected, now we have that momentum run on the going, and we don't want to hold CNXT during any consolidation process, thats the reason why we are tightening the trading plan.

Trading Plan:
Hold CNXT with a stop @ $2.15 (suggested exit price near $2.45)

Best regards,

[Melf Elf]

I'm changing the suggested exit level just a few ticks below, and upgrading our stop too, just remembering the time we were «annoyed» with CNXT trading development

Frederick,

Yes, while we want to be forgiving of CNXT's past transgressions, we don't want to be too forgiving.   

Since CNXT took out Friday's 2.27 high, I'm moving my stop up to 2.13, a penny below Monday's 2.14 exact gap-filling low (the November 9 high, before the gap, was 2.14 )

As you mentioned before, Frederick, CNXT does a good job responding to trendlines and resistance/support levels.  I like that.