VLO

[puenthouse]

shorted it.  4th short in history.  see how it goes

[Rip]

David,

If they were going to do a 4 for 1 stock split would they have to increase the number of authroized sharers before doing it?

[puenthouse]

nope

[Rip]

Thanks puenthouse.

[calven]

Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again. 

VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...

[Melf Elf]

Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again.

VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...

Good observation, calven.  Applause.

VLO printed 106.12 on Monday, within 0.038 of the down trendline, validating it as resistance.  If we can print 106.13, VLO should rally. 

Makes sense from the standpoint of sector rotation, too, if we get a selloff in the NASDAQ, Semis, etc.  They've have had a great rally, while the energy-related issues have had a selloff.

[Melf Elf]

Folks energy is bottoming...its time to buy again.

VLO "knocking 3 times" very bullish...

Good observation, calven.  Applause.

VLO printed 106.12 on Monday, within 0.038 of the down trendline, validating it as resistance.  If we can print 106.13, VLO should rally. 

calven,

We got the print of 106.13 and have two closes above the down trendline.  VLO looks okay here.

I own energy-related Burlingrton Resources (BR).  It's in merger discussions with Conoco Phillips.  You might want to take a look at it.  Nice chart.  I'll post it next.

[Melf Elf]

BR broke out of a W-bottom and Ascending Triangle.  It re-tested the breakout on Friday.  Upside target: 85.97 IN PLAY.

[Melf Elf]

Upside follow-thru on the Symmetrical Triangle breakout on a gap higher.

[Michael]

I like the KISS approach to investing.

VLO is in the refining and distribution business of Oil products. The US is running out of refining capacity. In fact many believe that there will be a shortage of refined products in the US this year.

For many reasons this shortage of refining capacity will continue for years to come. I like companies that cannot produce enough of their products to meet demand (this pick actually reminds me of KOMG!). It normally indicates that they have a lot of pricing power.

Pricing power translates directly down to the bottom line. Having in mind that VLO is trading at a PE of 7.3 with the consensus earnings this year it seems to be severely undervalued.

It was therefore a very easy decision to buy VLO this week.

From this thread I can see that David sold due to fear of dilution. I am really not concerned. VLO is generating 1 billion dollar of cash on a quarterly basis. They obviously don't need cash.

They decided to fill the war chest in December and that can only mean that they might think about acquisitions. I like that if they are planning to buy companies in their core business. This whole sector is undervalued and even though I am not sure how the market will react to acquisitions in the short term I am sure that VLO is a winner long term.

Mike

[Melf Elf]

Bought VLO at 51.00 on today's retracement of yesterday's tall white candle, which was the third day of a Bullish Morning Star pattern.  If it wasn't a Bullish Star pattern, I'll be stopped out at 49.64, below last Friday's Bullish Doji Star hammer, for a loss of  2.7%.

Upside target: resistance in the 55s.  Risk: reward is 1:3.

[Melf Elf]

Upside target: resistance in the 55s. Risk: reward is 1:3.

55.57 - 55.19 was key support that was broken on the September 9 gap down.

55.58 - was the September 8 low, prior to the gap down.

55.22 - was the high of the September 9 gap down.

[Melf Elf]

Bought VLO at 51.00 on today's retracement of yesterday's tall white candle, which was the third day of a Bullish Morning Star pattern.  If it wasn't a Bullish Star pattern, I'll be stopped out at 49.64, below last Friday's Bullish Doji Star hammer, for a loss of  2.7%.

Sold at 49.61.  Loss: 2.7.%

[Melf Elf]

Bought VLO yesterday at 52.71.  Stop: a few pennies below 51.60.  Risk: a loss of 2-2½%.

Sold at 49.61.  Loss: 2.7.%

"If at first you don't succeed, try, try again." 

I've been following VLO since I took that loss on what looked to be a Bullish Morning Star pattern. 

NOPE.   

On Monday of this week, after a better thrust higher in the 34 RSI, it came into Bullish Synchronicity with its "shadow," the 55RSI.

That established a Buy Pivot for yesterday, at 53.00 (Monday's high).  The Buy Signal for yesterday was 53.01, a penny above the Buy Pivot.

As with any indicator, when we get a buy or a sell signal, we always want to look at the chart, to see whether or not we want to take the signal.  The chart looks good.  We'll take a look at it in the next post.

Yesterday, VLO went to 53.00, the Buy Pivot, then backed off to the 52.40s.  I bought it at 52.71, figuring that if the stock was as good as it looked, technically, it should print the Buy Signal, 53.01, late yesterday, or today.

VLO closed at 53.06, so the Buy Signal was issued, and on a closing basis, as well.

[Melf Elf]

VLO got slapped for a 32% loss, from July's 68.83 to September's 46.84. 

After that kind of whacking, I like to see a stock settle down and form a base, from which to launch a rally.

VLO broke out of a W-Bottom on October 12.  Targets are on the chart.  They haven't MADE, and still are IN PLAY.

That kind of bottom is "skimpy."  Only of one month duration,  But, it was a start.

Rather than rally to the targets, VLO now has formed a second pattern, an Ascending Triangle.  Data Point #4 on the ascending line just got put in at 51.60, and yesterday, the 34/55RSIs gave us a Buiy Signal at 53.01.  I like that.

The MACD had a nice bounce yesterday, from above its signal line, and also from above the ZERO line.  I like that, as well.

VLO is set up nicely here, for a rally.    If VLO can take out the 54.73-54.75 highs of the Ascending Triangle, we'll have TWO Bullish breakouts, and another upside target IN PLAY.