VLO

[la-onda]

VLO has closed above resistance at at 56.97 and appears to be in a new uptrend. Volume was quite heavy which leads me to believe we should see the rally continue. Melf Elf, what´s your comment  ?

fyi:
1)
Valero Energy "outperform," target price raised
Wednesday, February 21, 2007 9:13:30 AM ET
Friedman,Billings,Ramsey &Co
NEW YORK, February 21 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Friedman Billings reiterate their "outperform" rating on Valero Energy (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $79 to $80.

2)
Valero Energy upgraded to "overweight"
Monday, February 05, 2007 1:50:03 AM ET
Prudential Financial
NEW YORK, February 5 (newratings.com) - Analyst Jason D Gammel of Prudential Financial upgrades Valero Energy Corp (VLO.NYS) from "neutral weight" to "overweight," while raising his estimates for the company. The target price has been raised from $61 to $65.
In a research note published on February 2, the analyst mentions that Valero Energy's focus on improving the operational performance is boosting the company's bottom-line. The analyst believes that Valero Energy would be able to generate ample free cash flows in 2007 in order to pay dividends, reduce debt liabilities and repurchase shares worth $2 billion. Prudential Financial expects the company's margin expansion to be sustainable relative to the benchmarks going forward. The EPS estimates for 2007 and 2008 have been raised from $6.89 to $7.41 and from $2.74 to $6.13, respectively.

3)
Valero Energy upgraded to "overweight"
Friday, February 02, 2007 8:26:04 AM ET
Prudential Financial
NEW YORK, February 2 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Prudential Financial upgrade Valero Energy CP (VLO.NYS) from "neutral weight" to "overweight." The target price has been raised from $61 to $65.

[nullzero]

VLO has a bunch of new gas stations popping up here in California. The prices are better then the other two gas stations and they also have a nice clean apperance to them. I think VLO is a great stock to own if you believe oil is on its way up. I think we will see $70 dollars a barrel for oil in the not to distant future.

[Melf Elf]

VLO has closed above resistance at at 56.97 and appears to be in a new uptrend. Volume was quite heavy which leads me to believe we should see the rally continue. Melf Elf, what´s your comment  ?

Oliver,

VLO is a little ahead of itself as far as the 50/200DMAs, but it looks good.

The 50 is the dotted green line.
The 200 is the dotted red line.

Worth watching for at least a bounce, and possibly more, in that 46.47-47.52 area.

The January low came in four sessions later, on January 10, at 47.66, just above the target area.  That completed the Right Leg of a W-Bottom.

Yesterday was a DOUBLE breakout of the little Symmetrical Triangle at 56.37 (pattern in purple), and the W-Bottom (horizontal black line, at 57.09 ...Left Leg is the September low of 46.95 ... Right Leg is the January low of 47.66).


Targets IN PLAY:

#1 - 58.35 - Symmetrical Triangle (in purple).  Broke out above 56.37 yesterday.

#2 - 59.23 - That's a "lost target" from the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) that broke out in November, but morphed into a Bear Flag (dotted blue trendline) at the 57.09 high.  That 57.09 high then became the pivot of the W-Bottom.

Sold another 20% at 57.06.  Gain: 8.3%

TIP:  Anticipating that "possible" pattern morph into the Bear Flag got me out of that portion of the trade three cents below the 57.09 high.

When you get an Ascending Triangle breakout (pattern in blue), create a line parallel to Blue #2 and Blue #4, an anchor it to the high at Blue #1.  That's the dotted blue line. 

When you approach that dotted blue line, particularly if there is overhead resistance, which there was, it's a good idea to take some profits there, to defend against the pattern morph into a Bear Flag, which we got.

Back to the 59.23 target...

When VLO gapped above the 54.73 - 54-75 highs of the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) on February 2, 2007, that put the "lost target" of 59.23 back IN PLAY.

#3 - 66.52 - W-Bottom target.  I always use the more conservative of the two legs (46.84 and 47.66) to measure the target, so 47.66.

57.09 ("W" pivot) - 47.66 (Right Leg) = 9.43 points + 57.09 = Target: 66.52

The targets are IN PLAY as long as VLO trades above the pattern breakouts.  Given the fact that the 50/200DMAs are inverted, and that there is a gap left on the chart at 54.46 - 54.28, VLO could come back and fill it. 

It's more bullish if that gap doesn't get filled, but it's still bullish if it fills the gap, then turns higher again.

[Melf Elf]

Targets IN PLAY:

#1 - 58.35 - Symmetrical Triangle (in purple).  Broke out above 56.37 yesterday.

#2 - 59.23 - That's a "lost target" from the Ascending Triangle (pattern in blue) that broke out in November, but morphed into a Bear Flag (dotted blue trendline) at the 57.09 high.  That 57.09 high then became the pivot of the W-Bottom.

58.35 AND 59.23 both MADE.

VLO is a little ahead of itself as far as the 50/200DMAs, but it looks good.

The 50 is the dotted green line.
The 200 is the dotted red line.

Now that Targets #1 and #2 MADE, I'd like to see a pullback to support, which would give the MAs a chance to get in gear:

Support:

1. 57.09 - the "W" pivot

2. 56.70 - the 200 DMA

3. 56.30 - The top of the Ascending Triangle (in purple).

Gap and 50DMA below all of that.

It might not pull back and just head for Target #3, but Friday is a "possible" Bearish Doji Star Hangman, and a pullback would be healthy.

[la-onda]

VLO update (MelfElf, we are missing you  )

1)
Valero Energy "buy," target price raised
Wednesday, April 04, 2007 2:09:01 PM ET
Banc of America
NEW YORK, April 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Banc of America Securities reiterate their "buy" rating on Valero Energy Corp (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $64 to $72.

2)
Valero Energy "outperform," target price raised
Wednesday, April 04, 2007 4:16:04 PM ET
BMO Capital Markets
NEW YORK, April 4 (newratings.com) - Analysts at BMO Nesbitt Burns reiterate their "outperform" rating on Valero Energy Inc (VLO.NYS). The target price has been raised from $75 to $82.

3)
Chart: continuously uptrend