Exhausted Selling Model

[calven]

SUF hit the 10.40 level.... did you set a trailing stop for that???

[ScottishTrader]

Nope and got burned bad yesterday - basically ignored one of the main rules of playing pull backs - as soon as it looks bearish - get out!  Saw a solid profit turn into a loss on yesterday's sell off, and paid a pretty penny for my lesson ugh

I did take not and shoulda listened....

[calven]

I like to use a stop under the previous days low of day if nothing else.  In this case I liked a trailing stop under the upsloping trendline (10.40)

I think SUF looks like a good short now....

[calven]

Will be using the ESM to hopefully pick a bottom for GOOG. Here is my starting chart. self explanatiory. GOOG is still 2-3 weeks from any kind of a bottom.

First things first in the ESM for GOOG. We need the blue downsloping trendline broken on the upper right hand corner of the chart...

Will be using the 30 day moving average as well it looks like.


Will be updating this post periodically. check back...

[calven]

ADZR is selling off....not really "panic selling" but Ill try the ESM - 


Inputs - 10 min chart (scottrade)
MA - 50 period moving average
Type - Candlestick
Duration - 3 day chart w/volume indicator
Possibly a higher low wave started...
Downsloping Trendline - 2 Touches (weak validity)

Green Support Line Unecessary....unless you are playing the bounces on the way down

Putting the ESM to the test on my first penny...w/ money...

ESM TUTORIAL - http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/ESM.asp

[ScottishTrader]

Bingo,

Looks like another ESM play with QTWW - 5min chart 40MA.  Unfortunately, I'm caught on the other end of it, holding with a loss from 2 days ago - really an ugly sell-off, but I'm hoping our WW target is still happening on this one.  May see the pullback today - perhaps a good entry for anyone interested, but not in?

What do you think Cal?

[calven]

Hmm, not sure about that chart you have there. The one main thing it lacks is the volume spike...its important too because it signals capitulation ("the sellers have given up")

[calven]

WOW Scottish Trader! I think you were right...guess we didnt need a volume spike on this one!

APPLAUD! 

[ScottishTrader]

Don't forget that this was only a 5 min chart - there was sustained volume down there at that bottom, maybe not a clear spike, but definitely a pickup when it hit that first bottom.

Anyway, I'm just glad it did bounce back - really didn't like to see myself in so much red so quickly!

Here's hopng QTWW will see $5+ next week!

[calven]

Here is the ESM on ADZR -

[calven]

Following GOOG with the ESM....   

[bananajo]

Hi Cal
Thanks for the Analysis on GOOG.
52% profit with my Puts . 

[calven]

1-2 more down days possible - probably time to take some profits on those puts....

[fous]

ESM? ascending triangle

[calven]

GNBT ESM CHART



Volume picking up - possibly spiking. Long may be ready to take over here. I think the next two days worth of trading will create a bottom...Its probably time to start getting some GNBT here...(2.25)


Capitulation selling and possible accumulation starting.
Highest probability entry is on a break of that RED downsloping trendline.