Stock Trading Basics to Swing Trading

[LiveLife]

GZFX moving up to #3 from #5 on cnet search!  The "buzz" is on!

http://news.com.com/2240-10755_3-0.html

http://www.wallstreettape.com/messageboards/?ticker=GZFX

[LiveLife]

Good morning!

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/051129/wall_street_premarket.html?.v=4

"Stocks Set to Open Up on Economic Data
Tuesday November 29, 8:37 am ET
Stocks Set to Open Higher on Durable Goods, Consumer Confidence Data"

We may have a nice market rebound after yesterday's dip.  GZFX stayed positive even after a significant profit taking and this is good.  Should be an exciting day!

GZFX continues to be the "buzz" on the stock trading MBs and still remains #3 searched item on cnet!

http://news.com.com/2240-10755_3-0.html

http://www.wallstreettape.com/messageboards/?ticker=GZFX

[LiveLife]

Interesting repost that may apply to stock trading in general.

Perhaps GZFX in Stage 4?  For this swing trader, I am back in to see where GZFX will go, if it doesn't I will sell and move on to the next swing trade! 

Thanks mrtrader1 for the post from Raging Bull MB:

24 Nov 2005, 10:53 PM EST
   Msg. 162993 of 163040


A Penny Stocks Life or Market Cycles

Stage 1 - Accumulation. Stock is quiet, trading sideways and without a lot of volatility. Most everyone ignores the stock because it has no sizzle. Insiders hold large blocks of stock and quietly gear up for the distribution.

Stage 2 - Breakout. Volume jumps up, psychological barriers are broken. Insiders begin to tell their friends of upcoming significant fundamental change. Pros take notice and buy the stock on the coat tails of the well informed. The public ignores it because they have not read about the company in the paper yet. It must be a scam.

Stage 3 - Uptrend. As a larger audience learns of the company and its promise, more buying comes in to the stock and it begins to climb. Pros begin to sell, but slowly. Average investor begins to buy.

Stage 4 - Pullback. The stock has gone up too fast, and some profit taking arrives. The jumpy investor who got the entry timing right but lacks confidence in his or her decision sells the stock with a small profit, and smiles in the mirror. The Pro holds on, Average Investor looks through the newspaper to find justification for ownership of the shares.

Stage 5 - Resumption of the Uptrend. The pull back is short lived, and the stock bounces and continues higher. The wannabe regrets the sell, but provides self counsel on the merit of making a profit, albeit a small one. The Pro might sell a little bit more, but still holds the majority of the original position. The Average Investor is getting excited now, and thinks about what could have been if only he had bought when he first noticed the stock.

Stage 6 - Exhaustion of the Uptrend. The media takes notice, and communicates the company's merits to the masses. The masses buy the stock, and it goes up sharply with strong volume. The Pros sell with enthusiasm. The Average Investor owns it now, and is telling everyone who will listen. The wannabe Pro jumps back on, after all, he was smart enough to buy it when the trend started, so he knows the stock well. Will hope make it go higher?

Stage 7 - Gravity Works. Pro selling begins to weigh on the uptrend, and the stock fails to go higher despite high volumes. The stock starts to go down instead of up, and the Pro is almost sold out. The Average Investor continues to cheer lead, hoping to rally support. The wannabe ignores what the market is telling him, taking a loss is too painful to consider. The company is featured on the cover of a magazine.

Stage 8 - The Second Guess. The stock bounces and starts to go back up. The wannabe Pro averages down while the Average Investor gets back to advising friends of his stock picking acumen. Pros sell their remaining holdings and begin to look for another deal to play, or perhaps start short selling the stock.

Stage 9 - Out of Gas. The bounce is a fake out, and the stock moves lower again. The public own this stock, and they have no more power to buy. The Pro are making money on the short sales now, but are despised by the masses. Calls for short selling to be made illegal are made by the Average Investor, after all, the short sellers are the demons causing the sell off.

Stage 10 - Dead Cat Bounce. The Average Investor and the wannabe Pro have no pain tolerance left, and finally sell for a big loss. The short selling Pros are the only buyers to take the share off their hands, and provide the needed liquidity. The stock bounces, and some short term traders make a quick profit. The Average Investor either swears to never buy a stock again, or tells lively stories over drinks about the one that could have been.

Stage 11 - Post Mortem. Pros have forgot about the stock and are considering carpet samples for their new home in Florida. Average Investor continues to follow the company and buys loads of cheap stock to try and overcome the regrettable loss.

The stock market is mean. You can be a good analyst, but if you can't overcome the psychological traps of trading, you will do what the crowd does. To be successful, you have be one step ahead of the crowd, and trade with unemotional discipline. There are strategies to take advantage of each stage of the market cycle that can be applied just by looking at a stock chart. They just require a bit of knowledge.

Author Unknown

[LiveLife]

Good re-entry point after swing trading profit taking (blue oval)

= Update 9:00 AM PST = lunch time in New York.   
Well, is GZFX rebound after the anticipated profit taking sustainable?  It will depend on buying pressure and new buyers learning about this company and Circuit City connection.  GameZnFlix and Circuit City should do a Press Release regarding GameZnFlix subscription increase and company profitability.  Time will tell.  Let's watch.

= Update 11:00 AM PST =
Nice daytrading gain! but I am seeing a pullback on GZFX, I am wondering if the overall market is also doing a pullback.

[LiveLife]

Yes, if you compare with GZFX and Nasdaq intraday charts, not too far off.  I also pulled other stock charts in comparison.

[LiveLife]

Along with the general market pullback, I also found some more "relevant" news that may be influencing GameZnFlix price because of "association" with Circuit City, perhaps.  Often, sector as a whole will respond as a "group." Netflix got a nasty downgrade and price drops reflect it yesterday and today. (see below link)

This swing trader is bought back at $0.019 and I am off to work.  For GZFX, yesterday and today's profit taking was overdue and anticipated.  Will GZFX go through further retracement before climbing?  I am not certain, so I will hold my shares overnight and see what happens to the tech sector as a whole and GZFX at market open tomorrow.  If money left the tech sector I wonder if it got converted to cash to hold on sidelines or got moved to another sector.  I will check on that tonight.

http://finance.yahoo.com/mo

12:30PM : No change to the prevailing trend as the afternoon session gets underway. Retail stocks, however, have recently inched into negative territory. Weakness has been most prevalent in computer & electronics retailers (i.e. BBY, CC and RSH)...

1:49PM Netflix - - 50 Day Alert (NFLX) 27.08 -0.50: -Technical- The stock trades at session/3-week lows just above its 50-day simple ma (26.98). Note the 50-day exponential lies below at 26.71.

[LiveLife]

I pulled the 5 day Nasdaq chart to see if there is a correlation of GZFX movement with the market.

I will let you come to your own conclusion.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Good evening!

Many of you emailed me asking "What happened today?"

If you look at the StockCharts technical analysis, as RSI dropped below 70 (RSI above 70-80 indicates "overbought" condition and stock usually sells off, unless there is extreme buying pressure) the anticipated retracement continued (fousc, you were right again!  ).

The volume remained healthy at 235 million shares and MACD is still in the positive territory.  Additional factors that may have contributed to today's drop may be due to market, especially tech heavy Nasdaq, took a day long dip after early gain (see Nasdaq Intraday chart).

I posted several other intraday stock charts for comparison.  Even IBM took the same day-long drop (BTW, IBM makes the CPU for the XBOX, FYI  ).  Circuit City and Best Buy both took it hard today along with Netflix, which continued it's decline after a "down grade" rating cut.

So, what's next for GZFX?  If GZFX is trending with Nasdaq and other "tech" stocks, then if Nasdaq and tech sector rebounds, GZFX should follow with rebound.  I held my shares through the night (I bought back at $0.019) after fractional daytrading in the morning, and I will be watching for rebound.  If not, I will sell and watch for rebound.

Good trading!

[LiveLife]

Here are more comparison intraday charts:

[LiveLife]

And here's Intel, I think you get the message.

[LiveLife]

Thanks michaelsilata14904 for the post from Yahoo MB:

11/29/05 08:53 pm
Msg: 73910 of 73914

First of all I have both stocks , CC and GZFX, and I wish all of us and the two companies the best. I just listened to the conference call and to say the least I am very impressed. You can go to wallstreet.net to listen to the one today. I have a lot of major Dow 30 stocks and this conference call just as insightful . Gallent stressed that they are constantly watching the demand which is No. 1 priority. Membership has increased 25% since the beginning of the month and he states at least twice that we are in growth mode. I believe he wanted to say so much more but of course he had to hold back. In ending, I believe the CC is definately on. Management is so concerned about future demand and acquisitions. The reason is so simplistic, this deal and others are on. Be prepared you true longs for tremendous benefits in 2006. Same earmarkings as Sirius, nothing different.

[LiveLife]

Thanks bigomaha21 for the post and link from Yahoo MB:  This is the conference call highlights by CEO of GameZnFlix with wallst.net.  I am listening to the conference call now.

Good update for GZFX!!!

11/29/05 08:57 pm
Msg: 73911 of 73914

GZFX Subscriptions up 25% since begining of november.

CCity deal is going excellent

"gameznflix is now at the point when we are no longer a start up business, we are in growth ... Everything is in place for us to grow "

Aquisitions very agressive over next 12 months

Revised website in first quarter next year. New website during holiday season not a good idea.

Expanding advertising and marketing / distribution centers

Expansion into Europe

Playstation 3 Games in spring / HD DVD in Fall

More marketing partners

Retaining members better than ever.

All Straight from wallst.net's interview (www.wallst.net)

[LiveLife]

Nice conference call by CEO of GZFX with wallst.net!  The subscription increase update (25% since November 1st!!!) is very timely and will certainly boost GZFX stock price!

Here's the transcript of the call:

http://www.gameznflix.com/press.asp?pressID=44&archive=0

http://www.wallst.net/

Today we would like to welcome Chip Gallent, president of GameZnFlix Inc., ticker symbol GZFX, on the over the counter bulletin board.

Welcome Mr. Gallent.

Thanks for having me.

Can you give us a brief overview of GameZnFlix, what you do and markets you serve?

GameZnFlix is in the on-line rental business of both games and DVDs, we are one of very few that do that, and what it allows us to do is really to serve the home in a way that no one else can in the on-line rental business.  Our goal is to provide the family with a broad variety of rental choices, taking into account of the game market as well as the movie market and provide that value for the home entertainment dollar.

What do you think is the value proposition for your customers?  What do you think separates GameZnFlix from its competitors?

The main thing for us is, like I said, we are the only major company in this market who offers both games and movies.  And it really is helping us to establish its own category because traditionally, you had to go in either direction, either to on-line renter of movies or on-line renter of games to get the same thing that you get from us.  For example, one of our competitors in the game space, offers two titles out at a time program for $21.95.  On the DVD side, you can get three titles out at a time program for $17.99, that's $39.94 in combined rental expense to the home to get the same thing we offer for $16.99, now that's our three out program.

If you want to look at purely apples to apple, you have to spend almost $30 to get with game provider that offer one out plan with a movie provider to get the same thing of $16.99 that we offer.  The fact that who we serve and who our customers are, the majority of people that we deal with are males.  Our age demographic is 24-39, half of them are married.  So we are really penetrating the home entertainment value for that home, and it's allowing us to serve, maybe their son or daughter who's a gamer, dad might be a gamer, mom might be a gamer.  But then again, mom and dad might want to watch movies on the weekend, or kids might want to watch a particular movie.  We are giving a lot more choice for their investment in the on-line subscription.

Tell us about the company's relationship with Circuit City.

We are in a program with Circuit City where by we are testing in stores the sale of our service through a box that we have designed that's sitting on their shelves and they are selling for us.  The pilot program we are running with them right now, and we are hoping that that will lead to further expansion into the rest of their stores, which is going very well right now for us.  All we can say at this point is that it's going well, and we are hoping that it will lead to us being in more of their stores.

When can investors expect the company to see uptake of subscriptions and revenue?

We are, for example, we have historically reported information, we are coming out of fourth quarter, you will be able to see those results in our annual report that will be filed some point in the first quarter.  The most encouraging news today is that, just looking at the month of November, we are already up 25% in our membership from where we began on November 1st, and so that's very encouraging for us right now.  A lot of things we've been working towards over the last couple of quarters are really beginning to work for us.  Our new mailer is working very well for us.

We are striving to have as many titles on release day is as possible. That's one of the things we, through some of the research, we have identified that our members really like about us.  Most of people in this business do not have the inventory from on day one.  They wait until the titles are available on the used market, and they bring those titles in 2, 3, 4 weeks after release date. 

What our research tells us is that the primary drivers in this industry are new releases, specifically on the DVD side.  On the game side, it is very much with the new releases very much in line with genre specific titles be that shooter, role-play any number of genres that the gamer has.  Having the day one stock is very critical for us and a key advantage that we have over a lot of people in the industry.

We have seen what happened when we launched our XBOX 360 program in the fact that we had titles on the shelf on day one, shipping to our members, and what that did to the demand for the titles and what that has done for us in helping us increase our membership, by having more variety for people to choose from.

Is the company currently capitalized to achieve strategic objectives through the next 12 months?

Absolutely, through our investment partners, we are very well capitalized and GameZnFlix is now at the point where we are no longer a startup business.  We are absolutely in the growth and expansion mode and we are well capitalized to take on that state of the business.

How much growth through acquisitions can the investors expect in the next 12 months?

I think more than anything you will see that this industry is at a point in time where consolidation makes a lot of sense.  There has been a lot of people who have been in the business for a number of years.  A lot of companies that are privately funded who are not public, and are really at the point, in order to take the next step, they need access to capital and/or partners.  What we look for in a company is for any type of acquisition target, is someone who is just that.  In order to get to the next step, they need money.  They've done a good job getting it where it is, but they just haven't been able to break through ceiling of some sort, whether it be marketing expense, inventory expense, growth expense, infrastructure, so on and so forth.

Another thing that we look for in a company is that is the company on-line rentals of movies or on-line rentals of games?  Do they make good fit for us strategically?  Are we like minded in the way we approach the business philosophy around the business do they have sound membership base? Do they have good inventory on hand that we can bring into our fold and help us expand the inventory that we have?  You are going to see from us, that we are very aggressively looking for acquisitions right now in over the next 12 months, you are going to see us very aggressive in that side of the business.

Tell us about the company's management team.

Number one, we got a great management team.  We got a core group of five individuals that cover the gamut when you are looking at the business, obviously finance, operatins, marketing, technology, human resources and the core people we have, Mr. Flemming, myself, Chris who runs the web operations side of the business, Arthur, CFO everybody has unique experience in and around the on-line business.  We obviously been working to get to this point now for two or three years. Mr. Flemming has laid the ground work for us.  So, our management team is really one where we got the right people to help us grow.  We are looking for additional people to help us grow in other parts of the business.  As we keep continuing to grow in member,  We are looking for other parts of the business  continue to grow in membership, the number of title, the number of distribution centers we have to continue to bring in good people to take us to the next level.  We are obviously not done, and we will be adding others as we grow as we see fit and as the need arise.  But as far as the core, we are very sound and have a great team to work with to get us where we are looking to go.

What are some milestones over the next 12-18 months the investors should watch for?

Number one, we already hit on, which is acquisition, in finding companies that are good fit companies to help us grow, can bring subscriber number to us as well as inventory as well as good people  Probably in the first quarter is going to be the revised website.  We were looking to get that out sooner, but we were counseled that releasing a new website during the holiday season was not a good thing for us to do at this point in time because of all the issues that surround releasing new technology out into the market.

The other thing is expanding our advertising and marketing.  And really getting to the point where marketing and advertising is more science.  And we understand exactly how people come to us, what drives them to us and what drives people to stay with us, for as long we can serve them, as long as they have a need for on-line subscription.  We are looking at things like sponsorship and endorsement programs at different levels.  Different sales channels we can look at for offering our service.  We are looking at things like, is there potential for us to offer a way for groups and organizations to sell our service as a fund raiser, and are those kinds of things possible?

Obviously the other thing is expansion.  Where do we go with distribution centers?  How do we  expand the business in a smart way in line with membership growth so that we are closer to pockets of members; therefore, so that our turn around time is better  Another thing that is very strong for us is what is the evolution of rental business?

We are aggressively looking at a download model or paper view model, one that would allow us to offer to our members a title that is electronically delivered, you know that is the next stage of this business.  And whether that be through a computer, to a media center PC that is attached to the television, or satellite system of some sort, or an IP based television, that is something we are aggressively looking at because the technology and more importantly, the market for that may not be here right now, we know that some of the things that has happened in and around the business, that it is absolutely coming, and we want to be ready for it in anticipation of what that is.

Another strong thing for us is expansion into Europe and what that may entail, either through organic expansion or through acquisitions. And really the next things that are internal to the business is you got two new game platforms coming on-line in the spring, Playstation 3 [and Revolution].  You also have, probably in the summer or fall time frame, HD DVD, which is whole new world for us in respect to DVD and its technology.  So, those products as we see them are going to be strong for us going into, which they are released and we will want to stay on top of those.  So, that's kinda of a laundry list of things we are working on and we are striving for the next 12-18 months.

Do you have any closing comments?

I think the biggest thing is to reiterate that GameZnFlix is no longer a startup business.   Everything is in place for us to grow.  We are adequately funded.  Our internal infrastructure, both from capacity to shipping and receive is in great working order. Our IT infrastructure is at a point in time where we have more bandwidth and more capability especially with things we will be viewing at the website, from que one, is better than we have been with respect to web operatons. Marketing is qued up and ready to go.  Our relationship with Circuit City and other relationships we are working on with marketing partners.  Website sponsorships and other programs that we are looking at to help grow members, we are very excited about.  Everything in essence, is ready for us to take off.  We are retaining members better than ever before.  We are growing at a rate better than we have ever before. 

And it is now time to just "sit back," not necessarily sit back, that's the wrong term, but to manage the growth of the business.  And we have to be very strategic  The growth is managed in line with everything.  the demand doesn't get ahead of supply we don't bring in an exsorbant amount of members that we can serve.  Everything has to be done in line so we don't overextend ourselves.  One thing about this business is that you have to be very very careful is we are constantly watching the demand.  We are reordering customers are satisfied, our ship time to and from the customer are better than it has ever been.  Our day one stock is better than we have ever been.  We are serving the customer better than we have been because we are watching those things on a daily basis.  And so if there is anything I am completely encouraged with the state of the business is just that, we are in growth mode.

And finally, is there a website where investors can go to find more information?

You can go to our website, in the about section of gameznflix.com.

[LiveLife]

I know it's 1:30 AM (PST), but I wanted to see how the European markets did with GameZnFlix.

Both Berlin and Frankfurt are up 12%.  I hope this is in response to the CEO conference call yesterday with wallst.net and indication of US market performance for GZFX later today.

Time will tell, I am off to bed - see you in 4 hours!

[LiveLife]

Here's a pic of GZFX billboard - Thanks jrod from investorshub MB.