Stock Trading Basics to Swing Trading

[lana2b]

Hi, LL

Reading your thread and learning a lot.Your "SWING TRADING TEMPLATE" IS a huge help in making design to buy, hold or sell. Thanks for that.

But I have a question:

I had bought GNAT this morning, but sold when I saw the buying pressure on GNAT (and I am glad I did).  If GNAT continues to rebound, it should gain to the previous profit taking points.

Why you sold and glad you did when you saw  buying pressure - doesn't it show increased interest and ability to move price higher

GNAT continues to rebound

I didn't get it - why you sold?

Thanks in advance

lana

PS: I don't know if I post in a right place. Can I post questions to you here or should do it somewhere else?

[LiveLife]

3 of 3

[LiveLife]

lana2b, thanks for the comments.

I had PXT, GNTA and CNXT lined up as my next stocks to buy when they rebounded.  When I saw that GNTA started the rebound, I sold portion of GNBT and bought GNTA on Friday market open and held 50/50 position.

The actual comments I made on Friday are:

I had bought GNTA this morning, but sold when I saw the buying pressure on GNBT (and I am glad I did).  If GNTA continues to rebound, it should gain to the previous profit taking points.

When I saw the large buying interest in GNBT (6 million shares in 2 hours!), I decided that GNBT gain may be higher than GNTA rebound gain (Yes, I made a judgement call or "gamble").  lana2b, I have been day trading/swing trading for 6 months now and calls like this gets made on the fly - I had a growing bullish longer-term feeling with GNBT and when I saw the volume take off, I acted on it.

As to GNTA, it should rebound to previous profit taking points.  But as you may suspect, I believe next week, the buying pressure and interest in GNBT (Generex) will continue.  If not, I will sell.

And feel free to post your questions and comments here.  This MB thread is dedicated to newbies to stock trading.  We all learn from each other.   

[lana2b]

Thanks LL

Now I see my mistake- I thought you are talking about the same stock and it was two different

lana

[LiveLife]

Here's a comical break, thanks jackomoeski for the link.

http://mm.dfilm.com/mm2s/mm_route.php?id=2817872

http://www.paperboy.nl/show.php?PID=A36CB301-E0D6-CD7C-D88461A0B1F4AB4E

[LiveLife]

This will hit hard on the EU and US media.  It will finally hit "home" and fears will be actualized.  This will drive the price of Avian stocks even higher next week, IMHO.

France confirms bird flu strain

France has confirmed the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 has been found on a turkey farm in the east of the country.

It is the first time a European Union farm has been infected. France has already had cases in two wild ducks.  

About 80% of more than 11,000 birds at the farm have died in the past week, and the rest have been culled.

Despite assurances that cooked poultry is safe, sales in France have fallen by 30%, and Japan has announced an import ban with immediate effect.

... more on link

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4749666.stm

[LiveLife]

Repost from Yahoo MB, thanks sirenebekim for the post.

02/25/06 08:51 pm
Msg: 98955 of 98964

"I'd like to post some of my opinions that I have gathered during my research of Generex.
...

Now to the company.  Generex is currently involved in a revolutionary drug delivery system of such magnitude words cannot explain. With a possible two-thousand and five hundred different drugs to be delivered through the buccal mucosa.  This is a very pivotal time in medicine, and very few people can recognize this before everyone else.  Let me tell you, personally, that this is revolutionary.  There are many possible scenarios that arise that could have turned out for the better if their were drugs available on-demand.  With buccal drug delivery, you can get the medicine that is needed on-demand.  On-demand is when the drugs can be carried with you at all times, such as an asthmatic carries his or her inhaler.  There are limitless possibilities here.

The company is currently focused on next developing oral sprays for pain and blood pressure medication.  These are both very large world markets.  The money will not just flow, it will flood.  This company with the current float will raise one dollar for every 65 million it gains in market capitol.

The first drug to be delivered buccaly will be Oral-Lynn.  This delivers insulin through the buccal mucosa for diabetics that depend on insulin for daily life.  This will eliminate the need for shots.  It can also help prevent diabetes in patients that are young enough but do not wish to receive shots.  Do parents really want to see there child go through unnecessary pain based on a chance the child may develop into further more severe diabetes?  Probably not.  If there was a pain free, less invasive process, they would be more than happy to use preventative therapy.  Not just preventative therapy will Oral-Lynn focus, but maintenance therapy as well.  The world of diabetics has been increasing dramatically and it will just continue to get worse with the daily lifestyle of todays modern citizen.  McDonalds, BurgerKing, etc., all help fuel the diabetic fire.  This is a prime time to capitalize on this market while helping those that currently suffer from Diabetes.

Antigen express is currently one of two companies that have pandemic volume manufacturing capabilities.  The buccal delivery system also offers a great way to manufacture and package the drugs, and have them dispensed in time for a pandemic.  The current threat of H5N1 has brought the medical world to alert.  The virus is only two mutations from being human to human transmittable.  If we can stop it while it's still bird to human, we can avoid the pandemic.  A lot of investors know this already, and thats the explanation for the recent increase in share price.  Continued.


02/25/06 08:52 pm
Msg: 98957 of 98965

When Generex completes the above three areas of buccal delivery, I estimate their market to be around 50 billion dollars.  The world's demand in these areas is huge, and that is the reason of focus on these drugs.  The fact that they can get insulin, a very large molecule drug, to be absorbed into the buccal mucosa is amazing.  This is the hardest drug, as science has failed many times in the past trying to deliver it in a fashion other than shots.  The most recent attempt would be exubera [by Pfizer], but that will not be on the market long since it is proven to reduce lung capacity due to the use of powder being absorbed through the lungs. Delivering the medication buccaly produces no side affects, with no taste.  This is clearly monumental and will continue to bring extreme profits and revenue for this company until the 20 year world patent on their proprietary buccal drug delivery compound expires. ..."

[LiveLife]

My repost from Yahoo MB:

02/25/06 10:03 pm
Msg: 98976 of 98977

I will be honest. I will admit that I am a hard-core swing trader who will sell GNBT in a second to take profit.

However, consider this reality. If you are stock traders/investors looking for your next trade/investment, say in Bio-Tech, what will you find?

You will find many traditionals. And if you are looking for growth potential (my specialty), GNBT priced at $2 has a lot of room to gain/grow short-term/long-term compared to other Bio-Tech/Nano-Tech companies.

With recent gain performance that GNBT put, going from $0.70 to $2.22 in a relatively short time, it will get noticed. If you turn on the TV, you will see GNBT scroll by on the ticker day after day, week after week.

I see arguments about $2.22 being over-extended and time to sell. The new class of volume buyers are used to buying stocks priced $5 - $50.

And, don't forget the institutional/fund managers who are constantly on the lookout for "growth" stocks to buy. Inst/Managers been buying NVAX for almost a year!

I see growth potential for GNBT that's better than NVAX.

Like I always say, time will tell.

Just some more things to consider with GNBT...

[shipman]

LL,
    Do you think it's gonna retrace?  Is there a possible entry lower in the future?
Give us the old institutional buying graphic please.  Hey, I like your work, thank you!!!! Applaud--Ship

[LiveLife]

shipman, thanks for the comments.

Ok, I will respond again to the "question of the day":  Will GNBT retrace and is it too late to get in?

Technically, RSI is above 70 and GNBT should be considered "overbought", a condition that "normally" triggers a price correction.  With that said, there are exceptions, which I have posted earlier (AMD, HOM, STX, etc.) where buying pressure overcomes the normal price correction and the stock continues its gain.

At this point, the stock becomes "untrendable" and as I stated before, the daily volume and buying pressure need to be the primary indicator and the technical indicators second.  If the volume and price falls, sell.  If the volume and price continues up, buy/hold.  But take a look at the MACD.  As long as it remains in the positive territory, I believe GNBT will continue to gain like AMD, HOM, STX, etc.  If MACD falls into negative territory, we may look to selling.

Will there be profit taking/price corrections in the future?  Of course!  No stock goes up forever.  There are "sawtooth-like" gains that even stocks like HANS follow, but stocks that have extreme buying pressure and volume, these price corrections are short-lived and minor as we saw on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with GNBT (see 5 day chart).  Although, many stocks get sold off on Friday afternoon as daytraders/short-term traders close their trade week to cash, so Friday's afternoon's drop needs to take this into consideration.

As to Lycos I-watch chart, GNBT past price of sub-$1 was too low for many institutional managers to consider (many funds have strict stock price restrictions).  Other private fund managers may have bought GNBT at lower prices, but if you look at the chart, the 52 week high was at $1.51.  As I stated before, many sell as stock approaches the 52 week high, in fear that the stock may not breakthrough (you will see the red "sell" requests on the I-watch chart to correspond with this).  Since the breakthrough of the 52 week high at $1.51, GNBT has been setting new 52 week highs on a weekly, sometimes, daily basis.

Like NVAX's $1 to $6, as GNBT continues the climb up, I believe the perspective of the buyers will change from thinking $2 as the top to $2 being a low price to gain to $5+.

Will there be a possible lower entry in the future?  I believe what will happen on Monday's market open is that those wanting to sell will sell early, driving the price of GNBT down, unless there is a gap up open that is significant.  After this early sell off, I believe GNBT will resume its gain up, especially if the volume activity we saw on Friday continues.

Remember this.  There were 19 million shares bought on Friday alone at price close to $2 and $2+.  Many bought their shares at $1.50+.  What are their sell targets?  For some reason, the $5 target keeps popping up at Yahoo finance MB.  I am guessing, but I believe the $5 target is achievable short-term with some profit taking/correction along the way.  Will it happen?  Time will tell.  Will GNBT go higher?  I am not a fortune teller, I am just a swing trader.

= Update = I also posted the Yahoo finance Major Holders for GNBT as a baseline.  As you can see, I-watch buy/sell activity is probably due to private fund managers.  If we see an increase, we will know for sure if Institutional Holders are buying more.

[LiveLife]

I have to repost this article, since I feel that this represents the future of non-injectable insulin press/media coverage.

Any reporter wanting to cover the non-injectable insulin story will have to address/mention Generex in their story because Generex is the only company (among many) that is actually MARKETING such a product!  And as a side note, they will also mention that Generex is also an Avian flu vaccine play.  = WOW =

As the word "Generex" circulates with press/media coverage and as investors watch the stock symbol GNBT scroll by on CNBC/Bloomberg/etc. as market volume gainer (as it did the last few weeks), buying interest will only increase, driving the price higher.  At $2, it's cheap.  At $5, it will be a bargain for Institutional/Mutual Fund managers.  IMHO. 



http://www.ediets.com/news/article.cfm/cmi_1148617/code_12738

Oral insulin making strides
Updated: February 25, 2006

For the first time in history, the notion that insulin cannot be given by mouth has been challenged. Generex Biotechnology reported completion of a pre-market clinical trial using a fine mist oral spray, Oral-lyn™, which allows insulin to be absorbed through the lining of the mouth. Oral-lyn™ was given as a replacement for fast-acting mealtime insulin in ten individuals with type 1 diabetes.

Results showed that over a nine-day period, subjects were able to successfully replace mealtime insulin injections with Oral-lyn™ and maintain equivalent glucose levels. In fact, a short-term marker of glucose control, fructosamine, was slightly better with the use of the oral insulin mist compared to injections. Larger studies will begin soon with the hope of eventual FDA approval on the horizon."

[LiveLife]

Almost my bed time, good night all.

If you want more GNBT TA/articles/links, check out page 27 (and previous pages) posts.

Points of interest:

GNBT was the most searched item on finance MBs:
http://www.wallstreettape.com/messageboards/?ticker=gnbt&submit=GO%21&ivlbb=1&RagingBull=1&cnbc=1&investorhub=1&Yahoo=1&ClearStation=1&SiliconInvestor=1&MotleyFool=1

GNBT was second most searched item on cnet:
http://news.com.com/2240-10755_3-0.html

[LiveLife]

My repost from Yahoo MB in response to GNBT release of warrants question:

02/26/06 11:56 am
Msg: 99258 of 99262

"If you pull the 8-K for ANY stock, you will find filing for more warrants, especially for small cap.

Yes, GNBT is a small cap listed with Nasdaq.

How do small cap stocks raise money while they are developing new products/services?

They sell stock shares!

The capital generated is used to pay the salary, buy new equipment, pay for Research and Development (R&D) of new products, buy buildings/leases/supplies, etc.

So Generex is releasing several million shares to do what small caps are supposed to do.

With the recent interest and high volume activity, several million shares will have a temporary affect on share price, but the best time to dilute is when the stock is actively gaining with large interest in the stock. The affect will be minimized and stock price gain will resume with volume support.

Consider the facts: Did AMD and HANS offer warrants as they were growing as a small cap company? You bet!!!

Did VPHM offer warrants during their $2 to $20 climb? Yes!

Where are they now?"

[LiveLife]

My repost from Yahoo MB:

02/26/06 01:05 pm
Msg: 99311 of 99311

Another good point on profit taking sirenebekim.

Yes, profit taking is also an "integral" part a stock's life.

As buyers of lower price (sub-$1) take profit, new bases form as stock price increases. If we "flushed out" the buyers that bought below $1.50 last week, then majority of the holders are bought in at $1.50 - $2+ range.

I post the resistance and support to represent this situation. Current support is at $1.69 which means that stock price is unlikely to go below this level.

My feeling is that majority of the holder of GNBT is bought in at $1.50+ and will hold for higher selling target. With 19 million shares bought on Friday alone at $2 range, I feel that price drop below $2 is unlikely.

Besides, as long as the buying pressure continues, warrants or not, the price will probably continue up. Stock prices are set by the buyers. Compared to many other stocks in the Avian play (like NVAX, HEB, SVA, etc.), GNBT is lowest priced stock with non-injectable insulin product already on the market!!!

Like I said before, GNBT is a "no brainer" for Bio-Tech buy for trade or investment. The company will do what it has to in growing the company and secure its future. The traders/investors often think only $$$ gain. Well, if you are playing on greed, GNBT has much more to gain, I say, at least to $5 range short-term.

Either case, it still is no brainer.

I am still very bullish on GNBT"

[lana2b]

Hi, LL!     Hello everybody!

Need help or rescue!!!!    

The gas company- CHK here is the situation:
Market Value, $K:  10,340,669 Shares
Outstanding, K:  344,689
Number of Institutional Shareholders:  510
Percentage of Institutional Shareholders:  51.4%  
Last Quarter Sales, $M:  1751.0
Last Quarter Net Income, $M:  452.5
Last Quarter EPS:  1.11  
P/E Ratio:  12.0  
Annual EPS, $:  2.51  
Most Recent Earnings, $:  0.84 on 02/23/06  


  - bought in september, average $36
  - october- CHK complite acquisition of Columbia Natural Resources, an Appalachian Basin natural gas producer
  - price start to decline(usually does a little  after acquisition)
  - Price down  30%
  - was so in love with CHK and didn't notice negative divergence in dec- jan -should sell      @ $34-35
  -was waiting prices jump up after earnings-

Results are a little muddled by the impact of hedging activities and the exchange of preferred for common stock, but it's still clear that this was a strong quarter. Revenue jumped 86%, as the company coupled 27% production growth with higher price realizations. Despite ongoing cost increases across the sector, Chesapeake also boosted its profitability; it grew adjusted EBITDA by 91% and more than doubled adjusted earnings.

Fools who've followed this company know that it's been busy on the acquisition front, so it's no great surprise that proven reserves grew by 53% for the year. That puts the reserve replacement ratio at an eye-popping 659%. Just as impressive, the company would have achieved 223% reserve replacement through the drillbit alone -- that is, organic growth through its own exploration, development, and drilling efforts.

  For last 8 month insiders buying on $$$ millions @ $30-34
 -they hedged 80% $7-9 so if gas prices continue down - they are save

EVERY THING LOOKS BEAUTIFUL- except they are continue going down

 Actually can't read the chart at all - confused, lost, upset I;m down $6,000.00

Appreciate any  advice, help, TA

Thanks in advance

lana