Stock Trading Basics to Swing Trading

[gambler2075]

I have no idea what I am actually doing. I do not really even know what a short really is, other than everyone seems to hate them.

That's hilarious!!! Nice job on the nvax, as well!!! sounds like you are off to a great start. Remember... Shorts are bad... mmmmmmmmkaaaayyyyyy??

g

[LiveLife]

I had to work late last night again and going in early today for a project. 

Thanks soccer321 and gambler2075 for your comments.  Yes, I too have traded NVAX quite a few times last year and this year.  NVAX got some great new PRs that should be checked out: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=NVAX

I have gotten great response for the start of the new group, which is growing each day.  And soccer321, don't feel bad. .  Most in the group don't even have a stock trading account and don't know anything about stock trading!

I look forward to supporting this new group and the various stock trading issues, topics, tools and techniques we will be covering in the weeks to come.  Of course, I will be posting the information covered with the group on this MB and in the Knowledge Base section to maintain and support the "public forum" concept of 3StocksOnFire.

As to "shorting a stock" or shorts, the simple definition is the opposite of buying a stock to anticipate a gain.  We buy stocks that are anticipated to rise in price.  Shorts buy stocks that are anticipated to fall in price or stocks that are actively falling in price.  The reason why many traders on Message Boards hate shorts is because they often "bash or trash talk" the stock to drive the price down, so they can make even more money.  They do this because if the stock rises in price, they lose money in the same manner we lose money when a stock falls in price.

With that said, in certain bear market conditions, shorting stocks is a wise thing to do.  JFK's father made his money by shorting stocks during bear markets.  David Randolph (founder of 3SOF) in the recent past shorted some stocks when market conditions were bearish.

I do not short stocks (for now) and do not recommend newbies to short stocks (for now) or trade stocks on margin or do options trading.  I believe shorting, margin or options trading should be set aside for now to newbies until they are very well experienced in stock trading and learn the detailed processes to perform these more advanced trades effectively.

Yes, I have considered shorting stocks many times because the swing trading template indicates when the stocks will rise AND fall.  For now, I have dedicated this MB thread to support the newbies to stock trading, and I will focus on buy-low and sell/profit take-high for now.  Perhaps in the future, I may start a new 3SOF MB thread for more "advanced" stock trading concepts and techniques as this newbie (stock trading since July of 2005) learns more stock trading tricks. 

For those that asked, I sold my stock positions yesterday and bought back GNBT and NVAX at market open.  I will do more comprehensive posting for GNBT and NVAX after work today.  You can check out NVAX info and my previous NVAX posts here: http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=2478.msg51456#top

Well, I gotta get ready for work (going in early for a project today).

[fill_the_gap]

Agree with fousc on GZFX.

Take some off the table if needed.  We have no idea when news may come.

Remaining on the Circuit City site tonight is important too.  Coming off of there just like the circular ad would be devastating to the price.

The reality is probably a heavy selloff today without CC news. 

This is a frustrating company to trade. 

[wrangler]

Hi LiveLife
CYAN : when I did search on this stock you'rs was at top so this is where I'm at.
I don't know if you'll agree but I'm puting alert on this stock for all who want's to put it on their watch list.
What is you're TA,would appreciate you're comments. Also it's a great thing you're starting for new traders to help increase their knowledge in the market place.
Applaud 
Goodluck trading

[LiveLife]

fill_the_gap, I feel your frustration.

I was waiting for a PR from either Circuit City or GameZnFlix regarding the nationwide rollout.  If you look at the 5 day chart, I had no choice but to sell above my buy price of $0.0094 Monday morning.

There are many actively gaining stocks like AVNX, and with the new group of stock trading newbies I am supporting, I need to focus back to more "trendable" and tradable selection of stocks.  I will take a break on "speculation" stocks for now, but I will keep my eye on GZFX, just in case.

Take care.

[LiveLife]

wrangler, thanks for your comments! 

Glad to do an analysis on CYAN.  If you look at the template, there's a lot of sell indicators.

If you look at MACD, the last "buy" point where MACD bottomed and rebounded was in mid February.  It appears that the MACD has hit the "sell" point as it peaked in the first week of March.

My recommendation is that you wait for the MACD to bottom and rebound again before buying, unless you see a significant volume increase with matching price/MACD increase like in late December.

[LiveLife]

Nice rebounding gain on GNBT as MACD bottomed Monday and should continue to gain until MACD peaks.  Since RSI is at 70, there may be some short-term profit taking.  Perhaps GNBT will experience another 2 months of MACD in the positive territory?  Time will tell.

As to NVAX, what can I say.  I bought NVAX last fall at $1+ and rode it all the way to $6 and sold down to $4.50.  Wild ride with many trades during that run.  NVAX rebounded from $3 in December and hit $7 today!  Wow!

I will consider GNBT and NVAX my "longer-term" plays but will be "sensitive" to short-term profit taking.  I am even thinking about riding through the short-term profit taking dips (dang, am I slowly becoming long?  ).

As I write the intro to stock trading for the knowledge base, I am mindful of stocks such as AVNX which experienced 200%+ gains in recent months.  Search for such stocks will be the primary focus of the new group of stock trading newbies I am supporting - swing trading on a longer-term time period (weeks to months).

Like I posted in earlier posts, this MB thread will continue to evolve as time passes.  I will establish the basics in the knowledge base for the absolute newbies and keep this MB content easy to understand and use for the newbies actually trading (practice or for real).  Supporting this MB thread and the interactions I have experienced the past several months have been very rewarding!  I really enjoyed all of your participation and the report of you finally becoming effective and making profit on your trades! 

[LiveLife]

= Stock Trading Basics to Swing Trading Basics Lesson Plan =

Those interested in the lesson plans for the Swing Trading "class" can follow the Knowledge Base link.  (I will post the link to the Knowledge Base from now on at the bottom of my posts)

I am writing the "Intro to stock trading" right now and will be posting at the Knowledge Base in about an hour.  I will post the link on this MB once it is posted at the Knowledge Base.

You can check back here later.

[LiveLife]

Ok, a quick NVAX and GNBT update.

For those that asked about the sharp afternoon gain, my theory is that holders of other Avian plays may have sold and bought NVAX.

Coincidently, 3SOF NVAX MB is titled "... next VPHM?" and the recent $22 to $17 drop of VPHM may have brought in new "serious" money to NVAX.  HEB, BCRX and VPHM all dropped in the afternoon as NVAX gained sharply.  Will NVAX be the next VPHM?  As always, time will tell, but if Novavaxx receives any government linked funding or contract, it is very plausible.

And about GNBT?  One strong product Generex has going for it is the Oral-lyn oral spray insulin.  I believe this product alone can push the price of GNBT to $5 - $10.  And GNBT is another Avian play.  The Avian flu money will not go to a single company.  I believe it will continue to be distributed to many companies.  Generex happens to have other lines in the water other than Avian flu vaccine, and I believe that makes GNBT an attractive "long-term" play.

Below are Intraday and 5-day comparison charts for NVAX, VPHM, HEB and BCRX:

[LiveLife]

= 3SOF Knowledge Base Update =

I started my revision of the knowledge base on the link below.  You can follow the "lesson plans" for the second "newbie" group there (new content in red).

= Please, DO NOT try to post questions or comments at the knowledge base, it is locked.  Post your questions and comments on THIS MB.  Thank you  =

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=3633.msg32636#msg32636

[LiveLife]

= For those that need to file tax return for USA =

= All USA traders must claim capital gain/loss for stocks sold in 2005 on 2005 tax return using Schedule D =

Here's a very valuable MB thread started for tax filing for USA traders:

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=4709.msg51674#msg51674

[LiveLife]

New PR this morning:


Novavax Receives Additional Government Funding for HIV/AIDS Vaccine Research

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/060316/nyth065.html?.v=38

"MALVERN, Pa., March 16 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Novavax, Inc. (Nasdaq: NVAX - News), announced approval today from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), of an additional commitment of approximately $1.0 million to fund the third year of a 4 1/2 year research program. Novavax is developing a novel HIV/AIDS virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine as part of an NIH Integrated Preclinical/Clinical AIDS Vaccine Development Program comprised of scientists from the University of Alabama at Birmingham, Emory University, and Harvard Medical School. All three institutions are working with Novavax in a collaboration to accelerate HIV/AIDS vaccine development."  more at link.



http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060316/premarket_movers.html?.v=1

[NVAX] announced approval from the federal government for a third year of research in a four-and-a-half year program to develop an HIV/AIDS vaccine.

The company, which is also working on a vaccine for bird flu, has seen its shares enjoy a huge run-up in the last half year, rising nearly sevenfold since late August. Shares added 19 cents, or 2.7 percent, to $7.19 in heavy premarket trading on the INET electronic exchange. Shares closed at $7 on the Nasdaq Wednesday.

[LiveLife]

Generex Biotechnology Receives Patent in Mexico

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060316/0113474.html

TORONTO--(MARKET WIRE)--Mar 16, 2006 -- Generex Biotechnology Corporation (NasdaqSC:GNBT - News), a leader in the area of buccal drug delivery, announced today that it has been granted a patent by the Mexico National Registry of Patents titled "Proteinic Drug Delivery System Using Aerosolized Membrane-Mimetic Amphiphiles." The patent, an extant United States Patent registered by the Company, relates to an improved delivery system for the administration of large-molecule pharmaceuticals, particularly through the oral and nasal membranes.  More at link.

[LiveLife]

Wow, what a nice gain days for GNBT and NVAX with great PR/news! 

Despite Nasdaq taking a dip in the afternoon, both stocks fared very well.

As I stated before, Generex already has the non-injectable oral insulin spray (Oral-lyn) marketed in Ecuador.  With today's PR announcing patent from Mexico with recent oral insulin spray data controlling blood sugar, Canada's FDA counterpart approving Oral-lyn is becoming a closer reality.  Add to this the Avian flu vaccine component, GNBT is very attractive.

With that said, here's the objective technicals.  MACD rose to positive territory today after 3 days of rebound off negative bottoming and RSI is just rising above 70.  Volume increases of the last 3 days correspond with price increases and chart looks very bullish.  Will GNBT experience another 2 months of MACD in the positive territory?  With GNBT setting new 52 week highs each day, GNBT may easily hit $5 - $10 short to mid-term.

Of course, as GNBT demonstrated the last two months, expect short-lived profit taking along the way.

I am long on GNBT.

[LiveLife]

As to NVAX, very nice news release of government funding for their ongoing HIV/AIDS vaccine research.  Although the funding wasn't for the Avian flu vaccine development, as I stated before, any government linked funding will attract interest for Novavax and firm up many thoughts about possible government connection/talks NVAX may have.  Novavax also has a marketed product that delivers estrogen hormone in a cream suspension (Estrasorb) that already has FDA approval.  It all results in more buy interest in the company that just recovered from the $1-$6-$3 run and rose from the ashes of $3 to $7.30, setting new 52 week highs this week!  Nice performance. 

[D] Investor sent me an email question asking if NVAX train has left.

Technically, MACD has been rising from bottoming the last 4 days.  The RSI is at 80 with very high volume and spiking gains in price.  Is NVAX ready for some profit taking?  It may be.  But as I posted before, there are exceptions to technical where buying pressure overwhelms the chart trends.  If you look at the intraday chart, there was some selling pressure in the afternoon, but it flattened despite the sharp fall of Nasdaq.

My take is that as long as MACD remains in the positive territory, NVAX may experience the inevitable profit taking dips, but will continue to rebound and gain.  The $10 target we talked about last year don't seem so far away now.

I am also long on NVAX.

More NVAX info here:  http://www.nvax101.com