SFCC

[brandyjoco]

It dropped from $43 to $28 on a possible erroneous Bloomberg article. Since then it has rebounded every day this week until it is now $33.  It is profitable with a strong future earnings potential.  I was thinking this may be worth 20% upside in the next few weeks with little risk.

Does anyone have an opinion?  I was thinking of buying some tomorrow....

[FireFly]

It seems that SFCC kept going down falling under 22$.
Insider transactions looking even stronger and so this might be a good entry point.

[1reilly]

One thing to keep in mind is that the investor hates unknowns. I have followed this company for some time and I currently hold no position. These are my thoughts :
a.The company states that guidance remains unchanged. $1.99 this year and $2.36 next year.
b.They have refuted the charges and have initiated a private investigation from an indepedant firm.
c. The company has never received an FDA warning letter.
d. We probably will see a congressional probe of the industry and new FDA-CRO standards.
e. Second Bloomberg article killed the rally back to 33. Is bloomberg finished?

If you can, listen to the company's conference call. Then decide what might be the worst case scenerio. What might happen to the current customer base? Will new contracts be delayed because of potential FDA guideline changes? What will the independant investigation find? ETC.
As you can see You may find that you have alot of questions. So will other investors. I liked this company, but I'm the type that needs to have fewer questions when ready to buy. Good luck with your Due Diligence.

[1reilly]

I want to follow-up on my reply. Today SFCC issued a PR which is important> They have increased the share repurchase program> read the press release. The stock was hammered to $15 dollar range on news of a capacity problem in Miami. I will tell you that I am now long the stock as of this posting. IMO it has become a value play for the next 6 months.

[bigdogs99999]

I also just went long and heavy too.  Great potential here.  Insiders are buying in the open market bigtime too. 

[owen654321]

This is a great contrarian and value play.  Just be careful of catching falling knives.  The chart looks technically ugly, but the volume today is good.  Also, SFCC appears to have had really big down days where it crashed hard, but not much continuation in the crash over the next few days (which tells me people have run for the doors very quickly when bad news has come out... the stock seems to have many skittish investors).  I am in at $17.90.  Disclaimer: I can't pass up $500 in a day if it is offered to me (esp. in these market conditions), so I have a limit sell order for $18.90 if it hits it today.

Perfect contrarian pick, thanks for turning me on to this one!

I couldn't resist quick money... out at $18.78... I'm sure I will regret it, but I can't complain about making a quick buck!

[shawFund]

Was in yesterday at $16 and out today at $18.65 for 2,000 shares - about 5K gain. I was a little bit nervous and did not want the profit gone. So I sold it.

Actually, SFCC shows a bullish reversal signal today. Will keep a close eye on it next Monday and may re-take position next Monday

In SFCC case, we may follow this rule: SELL ON RUMOR, BUY ON FACT.

[VikingFan]

SFCC had a quick selloff down under 17 today, that was quickly reversed, aided by the company's announcement of improvements on their building issues that caused the stock to tank last week.  The selloff and rally back over $1 from the low created a nice bottoming candlestick.

After hours, the company announced a conference call for Thursday morning at 8:30am to discuss recent issues, so the stock was up more after hours.  If it gets some upside tomorrow, the downtrend line from the top should be broken to the upside.  That, combined with the MACD buy signal at a very oversold level (<-4) makes me think the stock is ready for a nice retracement rally.  Valuation-wise, it seems the stock has priced in the worst case.  If anything better happens, SFCC should rally strongly.

[owen654321]

Well, for better or for worse I jumped in today (it's Tuesday here still) and bought with 300 shares at a little over 18, so I'm in   There is still a lot of selling at these levels it seems, but high volatility might provide a quick profit over the next few days.  Best of luck to all.

[1reilly]

Good luck to you with your purchase. I don't have a short term outlook on this stock. IMHO this stock has a long way to go. The company's guidance is for 1.99 this year and 2.32 next year. the Q3 numbers were right on target. You have an announced share repurchase program which tells me the company is willing to buy alot of stock at these prices. You have had a 50% haircut in market value. I'll take my chances and hold this for a significant % gain. I don't disagree with those of you trading this stock. I actually think you will actually outperform me. I just don't want to find this stock higher one day without me. Look at the fundamentals here ,you should be a comfortable long.

[1reilly]

I put out some numbers so it's my responsibility to update. Today SFCC changed the guidance lower. Now sees 2005 EPS 1.88 to 1.93. Now sees 2006 EPS 1.93 to 1.99. The Independent Counsel rejects the allegations and will report to Sen. Grassley. I still think the market cap haircut recently taken was overkill but this new guidance will probably keep the stock under pressure. Maybe the legal findings will override the lower guidance> I've said my outlook is long term for this one. Just providing the update for those with short term goals here.

[VikingFan]

Today's news is nothing but good for SFBC.  The stock has lost almost 60% of its market cap from the Bloomberg articles, and the impact to EPS is not huge.  The new guidance is actually ABOVE the analysts' revised guidance.  The Independent Cousel's review clears the company's name and removes the uncertainty that had the institutions selling out and shorts selling all they could.  Now, the shorts are going to have to cover and the institutions will want to buy back.  The panic selling is over.

Here's the summary from Briefing.com:
06:02 ET SFBC Intl sees FY05 non-GAAP EPS of $1.88-1.93 vs $1.82 consensus; revs of $329-330.5 mln vs $350.7 consensus (SFCC) 17.66 :SFCC sees 2005 non-GAAP EPS $1.88-1.93 vs $1.82 consensus; sees revs of $329-330.5 mln vs $350.7 mln consensus. The co's EPS and non-GAAP EPS guidance includes legal and related expenses pertaining to the Bloomberg articles of approximately $0.03 per share. In addition, the co has identified approximately $0.02 in lost EPS as a direct result of one client canceling two signed contracts of ongoing studies due to the Bloomberg articles, the impact of which is included in guidance. Non-GAAP EPS excludes non-cash expenses of approximately $0.18 per fully diluted share related to amortization of intangibles and $0.14 per fully diluted share related to one-time write-offs of deferred financing costs. Co sees 2006 non-GAAP EPS of $1.93-1.99 vs $1.90 consensus; revs of $355-363 mln vs $377.4 mln consensus. Non-GAAP EPS excludes non-cash expenses of approximately $0.13 per fully diluted share related to amortization of intangibles.

[brandyjoco]

I just jumped into SFCC this morning at $20 (kinda high).  I don't know why the price went down to the mid 18's...

I think this stock will have to go back up. Maybe $28 or more ... what do you think?

[David Randolph]

This is quite an interesting story. This is the first time I'm looking at this stock, so I know nothing about it.

But volume today is huge and the chart is a falling knife. As I read from your thread, two articles from Bloomberg caused this dive. Anyone has links to those articles?

Thanks 

[brandyjoco]

Sorry, I never saw the orig story.  Supposedly, there was some deaths and the company covered up by threatening doportation to the internationals involved. The insiders have been buying up shares ever since and refuted it.