Crude Oil

[Terliso]

It pays to look for stocks where indices breaking out

Bullish --- Oil & gold

Oil made a breakout around $68.00...

[akclide]

OIL and GOLD did breakout but in the past few days of trading we have seen the indexes that have already been flying high,when break out of a trend like that will start a pull back fairly quickly.So if you would have entered early last week,you are doing good.I think OIL and GOLD will pullback for the rest of this week either starting tomorrow or Wed.I could be dead wrong,but that is how I see it.But those are the sectors to play in the near future.

[Terliso]

OIL and GOLD did breakout but in the past few days of trading we have seen the indexes that have already been flying high,when break out of a trend like that will start a pull back fairly quickly.So if you would have entered early last week,you are doing good.I think OIL and GOLD will pullback for the rest of this week either starting tomorrow or Wed.I could be dead wrong,but that is how I see it.But those are the sectors to play in the near future.

I've been holding my GOLD stocks months ago i'm currently up 40% @ CLG 30% @ CBJ, bought CGR last week  and i'm already up 21% ...not bad akclide, I hope u got in also

[Terliso]

OIL and GOLD did breakout but in the past few days of trading we have seen the indexes that have already been flying high,when break out of a trend like that will start a pull back fairly quickly.So if you would have entered early last week,you are doing good.I think OIL and GOLD will pullback for the rest of this week either starting tomorrow or Wed.I could be dead wrong,but that is how I see it.But those are the sectors to play in the near future.

Yup, you were right..you're deadly wrong ...i think OIL index will continue trending up this week...

Have you checked out these oil stocks HEC & TGC? Hopefully you did....

[akclide]

I am glad that I was wrong because that would mean you made a bundle.Excellent Goodluck

[calven]

Crude should test support at $68.25 

[Terliso]

I think we are in for a recession. Here are some of the following fundamental reasons the market is tanking.

1) World instability ex.(Iraq, Israel conflict, North Korea, Iran nukes, Nigeria, world wide terrorist attacks, etc.)

2) Rising Energy prices (Oil, electricity cost, etc.)

3) Rising Inflation

4) Declining Dollar

5) Cooling real estate market

6) Political polarism and division in this country.

Im sure we can add a couple more lines to this list once we progress down the economic cycle of a recession. Unemployment, business slowdown, foreclosures, etc. Looking at the history books it looks a lot like the 1970s recession. Seems to me the markets will be in limbo for the next 2-5 years. Only way to make money is playing the stocks on a short term basis long or short taking your gains fast!

Its hard to touch any long position in a market like this. I think the only stocks that can hold up in this market are strong funadmental high yield div. stocks, any stock related to oil that is fundamentally strong ex. (SU, HES, VLO, XOM) and will benefit from higher oil prices, commoditys stocks and ETFs  like ex. (GLD, SLV, PD, FCX, N), and foreign stocks, ETF, foreign currency.

Good job Nullzero (applause)


I'll be scanning oil stocks this weekend.... I'm seeing the oil Index will hit below $85 bucks this coming weeks to come

[nullzero]

Im currently long in SU, NBG, and BRLI. BRLI doesnt really hold true to a recession strategy but I felt it could have a strong upward push in the next couple days if the market turns (currently only down like -1% on this) Here is a summary of SU I highly recommend it.


[SU] - "Suncor Energy, Inc. operates as an integrated energy company in Canada. It operates through four segments: Oil Sands, Natural Gas, Energy Marketing and Refining, and Refining and Marketing. The Oil Sands segment offers light sweet crude oil/diesel and light sour crude oil/bitumen. The Natural Gas segment explores, develops, produces, and supplies natural gas, natural gas liquids, and crude oil. The Energy Marketing and Refining segment refines, transports, and markets petroleum and petrochemical products, such as gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, heating fuels, heavy fuel oils, and petrochemicals to industrial, commercial, wholesale, and refining customers."

http://www.suncor.com

Bought SU today up already a %, looks strong on this one. Room for lots of short squeeze the oil and gas industry has been targeted the week before in shorting and now they are panic covering.

[Terliso]

Watch out!!  I think the market will drop again tomorrow
Oil Prices Rise Toward $78 a BarrelMonday July 17, 12:43 am ET
By Gillian Wong, Associated Press Writer 
Crude Oil Prices Rise Toward $78 a Barrel in Asian Trading on Mideast Turmoil


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude oil prices rose Monday as escalating fighting between Israel and militants in Lebanon created more geopolitical uncertainty in a market already jittery over volatility in producing countries.
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Light, sweet crude for August delivery gained 50 cents to $77.53 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, midmorning in Singapore.

The contract reached an intraday record of $78.40 a barrel Friday before settling at an all-time closing high of $77.03.

Gasoline futures rose 1.01 cents to $2.335 a gallon Monday while heating oil prices added 1.65 cents to $2.0925 a gallon. Natural gas prices fell 19.7 cents to $6.150 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Fighting between Israel and militants in Lebanon, which escalated over the weekend, raised fears of a possible full-blown war in the Middle East.

Analysts said the violence was driving oil prices higher though it had no direct effect on oil supplies because it added more nervousness to a market already placed on edge by strong global demand and a tight supply cushion.

"Oil prices are higher because the conflict between Israel and Lebanon worsened over the weekend, and though that obviously doesn't have any direct impact on physical oil supply, people are having trouble seeing where this all ends," said Tobin Gorey, a commodity strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney.

Israel lobbed missiles at targets in all corners of Lebanon early Monday, killing 13 and wounding 53 in a surge of reprisals after Hezbollah rockets slammed into new targets deep inside Israel.

Both Israel and Hezbollah signaled over the weekend that their attacks would only intensify in an already brutal fight that has killed at least 174 in Lebanon and 23 in Israel.

Hezbollah on Sunday launched missile attacks on the Israeli city of Haifa after attacking an Israeli warship Friday night.

Israel has said one of the missiles in the Haifa attack came from Syria and said Iran had helped Hezbollah fire a sophisticated radar-guided missile at the Israeli warship.

Fearing the violence could spiral out of control, world leaders meeting in St. Petersburg produced a framework to end the crisis, and a U.N. envoy landed in Beirut for talks. The Group of Eight industrialized nations expressed concern over "rising civilian casualties on all sides" and urged both sides to stop the violence.

The fighting comes amid persistent oil market anxieties about the West's nuclear standoff with Iran, threats of supply disruptions in Nigeria and the Gulf of Mexico hurricane season. Last year, hurricanes Katrina and Rita devastated oil and natural gas production in the Gulf of Mexico.

[setravis]

Oil

This link is to a Wilkipedia writeup on the future availability of oil and other resources. it's worth a reading.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

[setravis]

Saudi King Abdullah drops quiet bombshell; U.S. media sleep through it Written by Steve Andrews and Randy Udall
Monday, 21 April 2008
On April 13
Reuters reported the following from Riyadh:
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said he had ordered some new oil discoveries left untapped to preserve oil wealth in the world's top exporter for future generations...

"When there were some new finds, I told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our children need it'," King Abdullah said...

Saudi production capacity stands at around 11.3 million bpd, and is scheduled to rise to 12.5 million bpd next year.

The King's remarks seem to confirm a statement made last year by Saudi oil minister Ali al-Naimi who, when asked "How high can your production go?" replied, "We'll get to 12.5 million barrels a day and then we'll see."

If the Saudi announcement was a bombshell, American nearly newspapers ignored it. We decided to canvass experts we respect to see what they thought. Excerpts follow:

Tom Petrie, vice president, Merrill Lynch:

"King Abdullah's quote speaks to the fast-emerging reality of what I call 'practical peak oil.' The Saudis and other exporters are placing a new emphasis on elongating the petroleum exploitation and depletion cycle. This stems from a growing awareness of the challenges of conventional resource maturity, as well as rising resource nationalism. This is likely to result in an earlier occurrence of global peak oil output than many consumers yet recognize."

Charles T. Maxwell, senior energy analyst, Weeden & Co:

"If Saudi Arabia's oil reserves are not going to be made available to the world in future years, beyond the expansion they have already signaled (to 12.5 million barrels/day), then the geologic oil supply constraints that we are feeling in many other parts of the world are going to close in on us earlier and more severely than we previously thought. It's a major change in policy. It's a powerful message. It makes the geologic message that much more decisive."

Chris Skrebowski, editor of Petroleum Review:

"King Abdullah's statement represents the final seal of approval on an emerging Saudi policy of restricting output to save oil for future generations. In recent years the Saudis have been managing expectations of future capacity steadily downwards. No one now talks of their reaching 15mn b/d. If they reach 12.5mn b/d, while maintaining 1-2mn b/d of 'spare' capacity, we should plan for Saudi production to be 9-11mn b/d for the foreseeable future.

"High oil prices and bulging treasuries are giving producing countries the option of maximizing plateau production. We may never know if these decisions are being dictated by geology or driven by a political imperative of 'saving oil for later generations.' I suspect it's a mixture of the two.

"In any case, there is now a broad-based move by energy exporters, including Russia, Angola, Azerbaijan, and Norway, to restrict expansion to maximize plateau flows. If this takes hold, then global supplies will reach a peak rather earlier than analysis of future projects would indicate."

Matt Simmons, chairman of Simmons & Co. International:

"This statement by the Supreme Ruler of Saudi Arabia has far-reaching implications. That King Addullah would now instruct his servants to conserve the oil they pump and save some for the kids and grandkids of today's Saudi citizens is most profound.

"King Abdullah has exhibited a sense of wisdom not seen since his brother, King Faisal ruled the Kingdom until his tragic assassination. Assuming his health continues, he might lead Saudi Arabia successfully into a post-peak world and create sustainable middle class wealth for the 90% of Saudi Arabia who had accidentally been left behind.

[setravis]

Top in Oil ? 

hmmm

[setravis]

AP
Energy Sector Roundup: Another day, another record
Tuesday May 20, 3:48 pm ET 
Crude marches past $129, demand falls at the pump, greenhouse gas emissions rose last year


NEW YORK (AP) -- Following is a summary of top stories in the energy sector Tuesday afternoon.
Higher oil, Higher gas

Crude prices spiked to a yet another trading high, as supply concerns mounted and traders poured in for a last-minute buying binge before June contracts expired. At filling stations across the country, the national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline approached $4, touching $3.80 for the first time.

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The June contract for light, sweet crude traded as high as $129.60 on the New York Mercantile Exchange before settling at $129.07, up $2.02. The imminent expiration of that contract, which ended with the close of Tuesday trading, created additional volatility in the market.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures rose 9.99 cents to settle at $3.7750 a gallon, while gasoline futures gained 6.78 cents to settle at $3.3044 a gallon. Natural gas futures jumped 41.1 cents to settle at $11.365 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Gasoline Demand Falls as Price Climbs

A survey by MasterCard SpendingPulse finds gasoline demand at the pump last week fell 6.8 percent compared with the same week last year.

Study author Michael McNamara said in a phone interview the seasonal lift in gasoline demand that normally happens around this time of year continues to be stalled, possibly due to record high gasoline prices and a sluggish U.S. economy.

The average retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline is up 70 cents since the beginning of the year.

McNamara said gasoline purchases account for about 15 percent of total retail spending so far this year compared with 11.3 percent in 2003. "In dollar terms, through April, consumers spent $158 billion on gas," he said. "That compares with $88 billion in 2003."

SpendingPulse is a macroeconomic indicator of national retail sales based on aggregate sales activity in the MasterCard payments network, together with estimates for all other payment forms, including cash and check. MasterCard SpendingPulse does not represent MasterCard financial performance.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Rose Last Year

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration says carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. increased last year, compared with emission levels in 2006.

EIA says 5.98 million tons of carbon dioxide went into the air in 2007, a 1.6 percent increase from the year before. EIA blames greater demand for heating and cooling, as well as "higher carbon intensity of electricity supply."

The electric power sector is the largest single source of carbon dioxide emission, accounting for 40 percent of the total, according to EIA. Emissions from the electric power sector rose 3 percent last year as power generation increased 2.5 percent.

EIA says the emissions increase is due to a decline in non-fossil-fueled generation, as hydro generation fell off.

Total energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S. are up 19.4 percent since 1990. They make up more than 80 percent of greenhouse gas emissions.

Pickens Says Oil Could Hit $150 This Year

In an interview with CNBC, billionaire Texas oilman T. Boone Pickens said he thinks crude oil could go as high as $150 a barrel this year.

Pickens said only natural gas is plentiful enough to offset dwindling supplies of oil, particularly for the U.S., and only a global recession would cause oil to fall.

Pickens said high oil prices are tied to depletion of supplies around the world and are not driven by speculators.

Lehman Raises Oil Services Price Targets

A Lehman Brothers analyst raised his price targets on 37 companies in the oil services and drilling sector, seeing a strong recovery in 2008 and 2009 for North American natural gas drilling along with significant international growth over the next few years.

Analyst James Crandell's top picks in the sector are Weatherford International Ltd., Halliburton Co., Schlumberger Ltd., Tidewater Inc., Nabors Industries Ltd., Hercules Offshore Inc., Core Laboratories NV and ION Geophysical Corp.

"Our long-standing investment opinion on the group remains positive, and we continue to recommend an overweight position on the group," Crandell said in a note to investors.

Quantum's German Partner to Increase Solar Capacity

Alternative energy company Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies Worldwide Inc. says its German partner will boost solar module manufacturing capacity for its European systems to meet growing demand.

Asola Advanced and Automotive Solar Systems GmbH will lift its capacity to 45 megawatts peak power annually and will build a new plant.

Quantum said it is in talks to build on its Asola partnership, and said the two companies signed a new long-term solar cell supply agreement with Ersol Solar Energy AG. Quantum and Asola will provide Ersol with 155 megawatts in solar cells this year.

The deal, combined with existing agreements, is expected to provide Quantum and Asola with more than $600 million in combined sales.

Quantum holds a 25 percent stake in Asola.

Quantum shares rose 19 cents, or 10.8 percent, to $1.94 in afternoon trading.

--Compiled by AP Business Writer Greg Stec. Questions or commen

[setravis]

Energy Dept. says oil, gas prices to stay high
Wednesday June 11, 1:41 pm ET
By H. Josef Hebert, Associated Press Writer
Energy Department predicts $4-a-gallon gas through next year, oil averaging $126 a barrel

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Motorists can expect gasoline prices around $4 gallon through next year, the Energy Department said Wednesday, with oil prices staying well above $100 a barrel.
Crude oil prices are likely to average $126 a barrel in 2009, $4 higher than this year, as oil supplies and demand are expected to remain tight, Guy Caruso, head of the department's Energy Information Administration, told a House hearing.

Gasoline prices are likely to peak at $4.15 a gallon in August and won't go down much after that, the agency projected in a report. Gasoline was forecast to average $3.92 a gallon through 2009.

The agency said that the high price of gasoline has reduced expected demand for this summer, but not enough to dampen prices.

Caruso told House members that new auto fuel economy requirements and the increased use of ethanol and other alternative fuels are expected to produce "a substantial reduction" in oil use and oil imports over the next two decades.

Predicting future oil and gasoline prices is highly uncertain with the volatile global oil markets, Caruso acknowledged. The agency projects oil prices declining to $86 a barrel in 2010 and then increasing to $107 by 2015.

Overall U.S. oil consumption is expected decline over the next two decades because of the production of more fuel-efficient cars and the growing use of ethanol as a motor fuel, Caruso said. Both were required by Congress last December.

Crude prices, meanwhile, soared Wednesday well above Caruso's projections as his agency announced that U.S. oil inventories fell more than expected last week. Light, sweet crude for July delivery jumped $4.50 to nearly $136 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil inventories fell by 4.6 million barrels last week, a much larger amount than had been predicted by analysts.

[setravis]

Oil is looking like a correction.......