BCRX

David Randolph · December 01, 2005, 05:10:49 AM

Good morning, BCRX is the first pick of the December edition of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio. In November, the Fast Portfolio got a gain of 8.59%, lets see if I can beat that this month.

You know I don't want to use fundamentals to pick these stocks, just technical analysis, so I can make faster trades without getting glued to some fundamental view.

BCRX was up a lot yesterday, but that's fine by me, I like to buy high, or not at all ...

Volume was higher on point 2 than on point 1. That tells me this bullish leg is stronger than the previous, and that the stock will go beyond the previous high of $18.42. It closed yesterday at $16.24.

It would be nice if there was no gap up, but I'll buy at the open anyway. Probably there will be another huge white marubozu to new highs, can you believe it?

I'm a believer, and the only way to know is by putting my money on the line. 33.33% of the Fast Portfolio, or $5,000 for a start, as always.

SmartWrasse · December 01, 2005, 02:04:26 PM

I got scared and got out this morning. Looking for a gap fill?

shawFund · December 01, 2005, 03:16:06 PM

Good day trade stock. I do think that it will break year high of $18.5 later. But I don't hold it overnight.

Gu$tavo · December 01, 2005, 08:57:57 PM

I'm in @ $ 15.10. I'm a believer too

tokyopua · December 02, 2005, 12:44:23 AM

I am in at 16.26 somehow, will be happy just to get out at that lol after today, lol. Of course if you hold this baby till phase III for the Roche drug, it could be 5 times that, definitely a stock to keep an eye on.

Jimbo · December 02, 2005, 01:54:41 AM

Quote from: tokyopua on December 02, 2005, 12:44:23 AM
I am in at 16.26 somehow, will be happy just to get out at that lol after today, lol. Of course if you hold this baby till phase III for the Roche drug, it could be 5 times that, definitely a stock to keep an eye on.

tokiopua,
I agree with you it's not a good way to begin the month with. I'm in too @ 15.91

. I know in short term doesn't look good but as you said "definitely to keep an eye on" :

Of course this is 3SOF Fast and it is quite interesting to know what David think

Good luck

David Randolph · December 02, 2005, 08:02:18 AM

Well, this wasn't a nice start to the December edition of the 3 SOF Fast Portfolio. But I prefer to have a bad start than a bad finish

BCRX tried to break $16 for several times during the day, but it could not, and profit taking kicked in. The stock gave up about 35% of the previous day's rise with 1/3 of the volume.

I bought at $16, I have a 7.31% loss at this point, and this is a Fast Portfolio. So, what to do? Get out right away? No, because there are things that tell me this pull back was profit taking and the uptrend should resume shortly. Just hold it? No, because I can't waste too much time and lose big on the Fast Portfolio, otherwise it would be almost impossible to have a profitable month.

Then what?

Design a simple trading plan, that protects me against a big loss and at the same time keeps me in if the uptrend resumes. I can't think of a specific level, but I know I wouldn't like to lose more than 10% on a single trade (that would mean -3.33% of the portfolio).

So, my stop loss order will be placed for a maximum 10% loss, that is, if the stock prints $14.40 today, I'll have to sell it and look for another opportunity, hopefully a better one.

shawFund · December 02, 2005, 10:31:58 AM

Fast Trade stock: SFCC

Bought yesterday before close at $16.00 (2K) and may make few K dollars today.

Company fundamental has no problem and stock got crashed.

Down from $45 -> $15 in couple of days!!

The only problem based on Blomborg report that they used illegal immigrants to conduct test and the company denied.

There may be some problem but this will have no problem for their big picture.

1reilly · December 02, 2005, 10:35:06 AM

Shaw Fund
Check out my reply and comments on SFCC on Stock picking board. You need to read the press release

shawFund · December 02, 2005, 10:40:10 AM

Quote from: 1reilly on December 02, 2005, 10:35:06 AM
Shaw Fund
Check out my reply and comments on SFCC on Stock picking board. You need to read the press release

Thank you for your comments on SFCC. Sold it at $18.65 today and made about $5K fast track dollars.

May re-take position later.

Also made fast track money on MOVI today bought before close yesterday also.

May make money on TASRE later.

1reilly · December 02, 2005, 10:46:48 AM

Good For you on SFCC, I've got a longer term outlook on this one. Back to BCRX I'm also on this pick and have David's target in mind.

shawFund · December 02, 2005, 11:40:09 AM

BCRX tried to reverse its decline in the morning but strong sell pushed it back to $14.70 level again.

$14.55 is the short term support.

stocky · December 03, 2005, 12:03:35 PM

I have followed BCRX during the Birdflu days. It is damned volatile and considered to be a crusher. I have started position on Friday and I too think that David is right on this one. Have to keep the plan, though I know this stock is going to take out many tight stops and then 'may' break out the 16 resistance area. Joining the believers, putting 10% on this hand

Goodluck all.

tokyopua · December 03, 2005, 02:09:20 PM

I wonder if BCRX is really still in the portfolio? The plan David had was to sell if the stock printed 14.40, and I know it did because I followed the plan and bailed myself...

ASR831 · December 03, 2005, 06:52:14 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on December 03, 2005, 02:09:20 PM
I wonder if BCRX is really still in the portfolio? The plan David had was to sell if the stock printed 14.40, and I know it did because I followed the plan and bailed myself...

I guess he did; he always follow the plan to avoid confusion. I guess the trade record will be updated on Monday.

I bailed myself as well; hopefully it was the right move $:-\$

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BCRX