BRCD - Sector: Technology---Industry: Computer Storage Devices

[rickjust]

hi,
still short. lots of selling at the bid for the last couple of days but price holds on. is this manipulation? waiting for the big drop.
maxi

[Terliso]

BRCD still sitting on the trendline but indicators are going bearish now (WEEKLY & DAILY scale)

I'll HOLD short

[Terliso]

Patience is winning

[nullzero]

whats your target for brcd? i was thinking 5.50 but now maybe even 5? what you think

[Terliso]

whats your target for brcd? i was thinking 5.50 but now maybe even 5? what you think

I'm not that good predicting target.


The only weakness i'm seeing right now on BRCD are:
1) Price is below 50sma daily scale
2) Price is below 9sma weekly & daily scale
3) Tracing down weekly MACD Histogram
4) Bearish MACD Lines (daily & weekly)

BRCD's has been sitting on bunch of supports & the Bear volume still weak to bring this boy down (as a shorter, we need more bear volume!!)...
For monday --- A break from $5.73 trendline (it looks like heading that way ) will put us in a very nice short position

[rickjust]

i'm still sittin' and a waitin'
fridays close was good for shorts as that is when it made it's move into the 580's with a close 1 penny above it's low.
i have been watching the tape the last few days and there hhas been nothing but sellers.
let's see what monday brings.
glta
maxi
exellent analysis terlisa

[Melf Elf]

Alister, nullzero and maxi,

BRCD is an interesting chart.  There's a good case for the bulls here, as well as for the bears.

The Bullish Case:

1. The trend since late in 2005 is bullish. 

Since the April 7 high, the stock has been trading in a Bull Flag/Bull Channel.  It's long in the tooth to be a Bull Flag basis the daily chart, but it looks more like a Bull Flag basis the weekly chart.

2. The slope connecting the highs is -0.1522, so I created that exact same slope for the bottom of the channel.

The bottom of the channel was broken on May 15, where I noted that the 3-Day pattern looks like a Bullish Morning Star.  That break, however, held above trendline off the November, 2005 low (purple trendline), as Alister pointed out.

To determine whether or not the bottom of the channel (green) is meaningful, we want to see if it holds after the May 19 rally to 6.29 (#2 circled in blue).

The next day, May 20, BRCD sold off to the bottom of the channel and held it almost exactly.  The channel came in at 5.633.  The low that day was 5.64. 

3. After that, another rally to the 50DMA, a selloff to 5.80 (#3 in blue), then two more attempts to take out 6.29.  The June 2 high was 6.30.  The June 5 high was 6.29.

At that point, we had a "possible" Bullish Ascending Triangle.  The dotted red line is the Ascending line.

That "possibility" was negated when BRCD closed below the ascending line (dotted red line) on June 7, however, it's "possible" that we have to "move the marker" (#3 with a question mark) to Thursday's low of 5.76 for the Ascending line.

4. Support for the Bulls:

a. 5.80 - That's the "new" ascending line (rising blue line) after we "moved the marker."

b. 5.64 - is DOUBLE support.  That was the successful re-test of the bottom of the channel on May 22, and that's where the trendline (purple) off the November, 2005 low will come in next week (looks like next Wednesday).

c. 5.42 - is DOUBLE support.  That's the May 15 and May 17 lows, and that's also where the bottom of the channel (green) comes in early this week.

Summary:

As maxi pointed out, BRCD moved into the 5.80s and closed near its low for the day on Friday.  It also failed on Friday almost exactly at the original ascending line (dotted red).  That trendline came in on Friday at 6.066.  Friday's high was 6.06. 

That's a score for the bears since the bulls failed that re-test.

Although MACD basis the daily chart has turned down from the zero line and crossed slightly below its signal line on Friday, which also favors the bears, watch out for it turning right back up like MOVI did, right before its pattern breakout on earnings.  Especially with three levels of support below here. 

You don't want to see 6.29-6.30 get taken out to the upside, which would suggest an upside channel breakout.  The top of the channel comes in at 6.293 on Wednesday June 21.

Good luck, guys!

[rickjust]

nice work melf,
it hit 566 this morning bounced back to 570 . let's see if it can break that 564 line,

although i can't see why any one would rush out and buy this in this market?
let's see.
max

[Terliso]

A break from $5.73 trendline (it looks like heading that way ) will put us in a very nice short position

I'm beginning to smile 

[nullzero]

reading the post in the yahoo boards sounds like the longs are starting to get fed up with the performance of BRCD... we might see 5 soon it looks like. BRCD doesnt really have the attractiveness of a buy espically in a market like this.

[rickjust]

just broke support at 568 on volume.
now at 561
maxi

[Melf Elf]

just broke support at 568 on volume.
now at 561
maxi

maxi,

DOUBLE support at 5.64 is broken.

Basis the weekly chart, the Kijun-Sen is at 5.58.  That acts like a price-related 22-week moving average.  If 5.58 doesn't hold, and if next DOUBLE support at 5.42 doesn't hold, that suggests a move down to the Kumo (Cloud), the top of which begins at 4.68.

Applauds to you, Alister, nullzero and echo on your nice shorts of BRCD.  Nice going, guys, and good luck.

[Terliso]

I put a limit sell short order on TRA last night @ 6.91 but it opened @ 6.88 high of the day so far

Well,  BRCD is looking good now 

[rickjust]

hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

[Terliso]

hi,
a lot of selling the last few days, all sells at the bid but doesn't seem to push the price down hard.
hhmmm,
sittin' and waitin'
maxi

Nothing to worry on BRCD, if you want piece of mind.... check the Three Line Break instead of Candlesticks .... Patience, Patience, Patience.... as long as no big news we're ok