TFSM

[Melf Elf]

nutsteert and Se7en,

Good going.  Applauds.  TFSM is testing 10.18-10.19 recent support now.  Looks toppy if that breaks.  The low so far today is 10.20.

[nutsterrt]

Thanks. If it shows support, would you consider it a candidate for buyback?

[Melf Elf]

Thanks. If it shows support, would you consider it a candidate for buyback?

nutsterrt,

I don't like the 3 Doji Star candles and the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge (dotted red line, connecting the tops).  I'm going to pass on it.

[nutsterrt]

Applaud for your input...if I could. Trying to learn TA, and your analysis of this security has been quite helpful. Thanks!! 

[Melf Elf]

Applaud for your input...if I could. Trying to learn TA, and your analysis of this security has been quite helpful. Thanks!!

nutsterrt,

You're welcome.  Glad if it helped. 

BTW, Relative Strength has me cautious, too.  We have a DOUBLE negative divergence on the last two rallies in the stock.  That means that, as TFSM rallied to successively "higher higher," relative strength made successively "lower lows," not confirming the new price highs in the stock. 

Stocks can have negative divergences and continue higher, but it's a sign of weakness, so I'd rather pass on it, even though we still have a couple of upside targets IN PLAY.  Targets don't always make.  They're just "what we aim for."

[Se7en]

THx for the info Melf, what's your tought about TMTA? tia

[Melf Elf]

THx for the info Melf, what's your tought about TMTA? tia

Sorry, Se7en, I'm not following that one.

[Melf Elf]

nutsteert and Se7en,

Good going.  Applauds.  TFSM is testing 10.18-10.19 recent support now.  Looks toppy if that breaks.  The low so far today is 10.20.

Basis the daily chart, the Four Beaish Doji Stars, yesterday's Bearish Engulfing pattern, and the DOUBLE negative divergence in the RSI that we looked at mid-week weren't looking so hot.

10.18-10.20 support broke this morning, and TFSM sank pretty quickly to 10.00.  It's now rallying off there to re-test the breakdown, currently at BID 10.14...ASK 10.15.

[nutsterrt]

Picked some up at 10.10 with a fairly tight stop limit on the sell. We'll see what happens

[Melf Elf]

I'm out of TFSM at 10.52.  Three things that I view as short-term bearish since my exit:

1.  The Bearish Doji Stars at the "possible" Bearish Rising Wedge, followed by a Bearish Engulfing pattern.

2.  Friday's break of the up trendline off low, prior to the Symmetrical Triangle breakout.

3. Friday's break of of 10.18-10.20 support, basis the intraday chart (posted above).

What I like about TFSM:

1. It broke out on good volume, and went to 10.00 (we'll make a note of that price).

2. It re-tested the breakout, and nailed it exactly, then rallied and took out 10.00 on very good volume.

3. On the next selloff, 10.00, which "should have" acted as support, didn't act as support.  It was for a purpose: to fill the 9.75 gap from March 24.  TFSM filled that gap exactly, which is where I entered the stock (one of the few times I've caught an exact low).

4. TFSM then rallied to those Doji Star highs.

5. On the Friday's break of the up trendline (dotted red line), and and break of 10.18-10.20 intraday support, TFSM this time bounced off 10.00 exactly.

"Former resistance "should" act as support.  It did.

6. Friday's candle was a Bullish Hammer "wannabe."  The wick, or tail, wasn't two times longer than the "real body" (the black part of the candle), as it should be, be it's reasonbly close, and "explained away" by the fact that the stock closed at 10.18, right at broken 10.18-10.20 support.

We don't want to do much "explaining away," or making excuses for a stock, but we'll give it the benefit of the doubt, since the overall behavior has been bullish. 

But, it's got to prove itself.

How do we know if "it's proving itself?"

For one thing, some of the technical indicators are "in the slot," so to speak.  They're testing support, and ready to rock and roll if TFSM can get its act together, and rally here.  We'll look at a couple of those in the following posts.

We want to see:

1. TFSM get back above broken support (10.18-10.20, basis the intraday chart).

2. TFSM take out the "buy pivot," which is Friday's high of 10.40.  With the technical indicators "in the slot," or, "in position," as they are, a print of 10.41 is considered to be a "buy pivot."

3. Since that up trendline (dotted red line) is right there, at about 10.41 for Monday's trading, we don't want to see it print 10.41...10.42, and then fail badly.  We want to see something bullish, like a close back above 10.18-10.20, and see it have a decent day.

If it can do that this week, TFSM has a chance of making the bullish targets of 11.12-11.40 that still are IN PLAY.

MACD and RSIs coming up next...

[Melf Elf]

MACD is coming back "into the slot," ready to tag its signal line, and kick higher on any rally.  It's got some more room to do that early this week, if TFSM "hangs about" for a couple/few days.

[Melf Elf]

Although we had TWO negative divergences in the 13/21 RSIs, telegraphing "possible" short-term weakness (and, we got it on Friday), indications of a selloff isn't necessarily a SELL, unless we see something more than short-term chart damage.

We had short-term chart damage on Friday.  The break of the up trendline (dotted red line), and the break of 10.18-10.20 support.   But,  nothing more than that...so far.

The 13/21 RSIs have come into synchronicity (the reading are nearly identical).  The 34/55RSIs still are "above" synchroncity, so they've "got some room," like the MACD.

ANY positive close will give us a bounce higher, out of synchronicty.  That's a plus, but we want to see Friday's 10.40 high get taken out to the upside.  Not necessarily on Monday, but SOON.

Good luck to those of you still long.  I'm thinkin' about it.      

[nutsterrt]

You know you want to. Like I said, I got out at 10.53 a few days ago, bought back in at 10.10 on Friday 

[Melf Elf]

You know you want to.

Get thee behind me, you devil!     

Yeah, I did want to, but TFSM couldn't get above 10.18-10.20 broken support this morning, and it's taken out 10.00, making a "lower low," after failing at resistance.  That's what I didn't want to see, darn it.

I'll pass. 

Good luck, nutsterrt, and to those long!

[nutsterrt]

Melf-
What's your take on today's price action?