KNOL

[Terliso]

KNOL touched 5 bucks (NEW HIGH).. it's up over 15%

[Terliso]

KNOL @ 5.70... high @ 6.00 today 

[Terliso]

KNOL still enjoying the uptrend after the Quarterly Results Beat Views
*** almost 300% in 4 months

[1reilly]

Terilisa
You've keep this thread alive since the middle of Jan. and you probably feel like I do with very little feedback on SMSI. Fous did such a great job on featuring the 2.85 breakout that I did buy the stock at 3.05 . Since then the stock has touched the 50 MA only once in mid Feb and never given me a reason to sell. I decided some time ago that my exit would be a violation of that 50 MA. That exit right now would still leave me with 80% and I can live with that. Congrats on keeping this alive, I have tried to do the same with SMSI . Sometimes people need to hear that their work has helped someone else make money. So I thank you and fous, it's work like this that makes this group special.
Mike

[Terliso]

Continue again....KNOL price now @ $7.50

[Terliso]

KNOL looks like due for pullback....

TIGHT STOP Knology, Inc. Earnings Call scheduled for Tue, May 9

New high @ 7.95
Close Price 7.87  .....

[Terliso]

So Long KNOL
I held this one for 3 long months..not my trading style but I did it & gave me 121% profit My biggest gain for 2006 yeheeee....

Reason for selling KNOL tomorrow is: Knology, Inc. Earnings Call scheduled for Tue, May 9


First Chart: 01-13-06

[Terliso]

Im out @ open ... let's go to party!!!

[Terliso]

KNOL still hot .... too bad i'm out, earnings call tomorrow

Have fun!

[mexirafa]

Breaking resistance!!!!

[Terliso]

KNOL looks like hitting a major resistance... I did a good job on this one 121% profit

I'm watching KNOL for possible entry (short position)

[calven]

KNOL recent News: 

Analyst Downgrade: August 10th

150$ debt financing = dilution

WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Knology Inc. (KNOL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) filed with regulators on Friday to periodically sell up to $150 million in common and preferred stock, debt securities, depositary shares and other securities.

The communications services provider said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it will use the proceeds from the shelf for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, future acquisitions, strategic investments, capital expenditures and working capital.

Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale.

I like the company's LONG term potential - I stress LONG - However losing .42 cents per share with such large revenues is a big concern. Their broadband network can only reach so far before the saleable customers become "tapped out".

The recent analyst downgrade and announcement of 150$ in debt financing will likely hurt the stock.


I am short KNOL from 10.05    - What are your thoughts teriliso?

Thanks

[fous]

To me it looks like KNOL is making a bounce off of its support level at the base of its ascending channel. Horizontal resistence is near 10 and then its all time high near 11 which is also is prior peak when KNOL had its IPO. To me a trigger short would be a downside breakdown of this ascending channel.

Good luck Cal 

-fous

[calven]

KNOL loses .42 per share and the stock remains bullish? How can this be?

$10.2 x 4 quarters = -$40,800,000 per year in LOSSES!

"Knology reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders for the second quarter of 2006 of $10.2 million or $(0.42) per share, compared with a net loss of $11.1 million, or $(0.46) per share for the previous quarter and $15.6 million, or $(0.66) per share for the second quarter of 2005."

Now $150 million in debt financing - of which an "un-named" amount will be issued in common stock which = DILUTION of some scale not to mention dividend payments to preferred stock holders

Lets say KNOL earnings continue at current rate or even slightly accelerate here is the scenario....

By 2009 shares will be slightly diluted from debt financing as will EPS. Adding up the losses would amount to almost 70 million....

2009-2010 - Chance for breakeven or small gain type earnings...

2008 - (?) estimating 7-10 million loss
2007 - (?) estimating  18 - 22 million loss
2006 - (-$11,000,00  in  Q2 + Q3 + Q4) estimating 30 million loss = 30% growth

2005 - (-$55,402,000)   
2004 - (-$75,564,000)   
2003 - (-$87,788,000)


Assuming KNOL will continue to grow revenues quarter over quarter by  12% or better (as provided by yahoo finance)KNOL wouldnt be profitable for at least 2-3 years. 2-3 years would be at least 60-70 million in further losses. THIS IS ASSUMING THEY DO IN FACT REACH PROFITABILITY and DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT EPS DILUTION FROM A COMMON STOCK OFFERING (as part of the 150 million in debt financing)


"WASHINGTON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Knology Inc. (KNOL.O: Quote, Profile, Research) filed with regulators on Friday to periodically sell up to $150 million in common and preferred stock, debt securities, depositary shares and other securities.

The communications services provider said in a registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it will use the proceeds from the shelf for general corporate purposes, including debt repayment, future acquisitions, strategic investments, capital expenditures and working capital.

Under a shelf registration, a company may sell securities in one or more separate offerings with the size, price and terms to be determined at the time of sale. "

Short term reasons for bearishness:

Considerable insider selling = more float and pressure on the stock

Analyst downgrade and growing competition from other high speed ISP's.

Almost NO reaction to the "improved guidance" for the rest of 2006

Although total subscriber growth remains steady the law of large numbers may come into affect as the company provides internet services through high speed cable lines. Obviously these cable lines limit the sales reach to that of network service area....




These are the reasons I'm Short from $10.05

Are any of the points I made flawed? What do you guys think?

Thanks

[calven]

KNOL right around my short entry of 10.05 - Thoughts on this one Terliso??

Thanks