AVNX

[David Randolph]

Thank you setravis, Merry Christmas 

Yes Terlisa, $1.5 - $1.6 target seems reasonable. There's a gap to be filled at $1.66, I wonder if AVNX can get there over the short term?

For now the breakout we had on the last trading day gives me a technical target of $1.21-$0.99 = $0.22 + $1.21 = $1.43, not much further away than where we are now.

This is all coming from that expectation of an increase in gross margins from 0%, to 5% to more than 10% this quarter. Probably people are wondering if this is a permanent fundamental shift or just a one time event. And, if with more than 10% gross margins the company is in reach of profitability.

For the next update I'll read the 10-Q report of the company to know more about their business and prospects. For now, if there's a big spike up, I'll take profits, if not I'll continue holding.

So, the plan is:

1) Take profits if $1.66 is reached
2) If not, continue holding AVNX

[David Randolph]

There were some news yesterday from AVNX just before the close:

«To Our Stockholders:

Notice is hereby given that a Special Meeting of Stockholders (the "Special Meeting") of Avanex Corporation, a Delaware corporation ("Avanex"), will be held on January 27, 2006, at 10:00 a.m., local time, at Avanex's corporate headquarters, 40919 Encyclopedia Circle, Fremont, California 94538, for the following purposes:

1.To approve the elimination of the floor price limitations from the anti-dilution provisions of each of Avanex's Amended and Restated Senior Secured Convertible Notes and related Amended and Restated Warrants to purchase Common Stock;

2. To approve amendments to Avanex's Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation which would effect a reverse stock split, pursuant to which any whole number of outstanding shares of Avanex's common stock between and including seven and fifteen would be combined into one share of such stock, and to authorize the Board of Directors to select and file one such amendment which would effect the reverse stock split within such range; and

3. To transact such other business as may properly come before the Special Meeting or any adjournment or postponement thereof.

I was reading some of the last 10-Q report from the company and I don't think the current rise will last much longer, despite the improving fundamentals from the company.

The stock came up from $0.62 to $1.48, a 138% rise in about a month. I have a 28% open profit on it and the general market is turning decisively bearish.

I'll take the 28% profit and start preparing a bear campaign.

[David Randolph]

AVNX is tanking today due to disappointing guidance:

Avanex Announces Preliminary Financial Results for Second Fiscal Quarter 2006

I'm glad I sold it at $1.35 for a 28% profit, or I would be losing now 

[metro]

AVNX looks now as a decent short sell setup with break of either trend line on chart

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=avnx,uu[e,a]daclyyay[dc][pc50!c200!d20,2!c9!f][vc60][ila13,25,8!lb14!lh14,3][j48548774,y]&listNum=21

[ScottishTrader]

May be time to have another look at AVNX - they reported after hours today, and while revs were down, we already knew that - booking revenues of $36.1M vs. $41.2M last Q, their net loss was reduced to $13.4M or .09 per share, much better than last quarter's .12/sh on $16.9M

Cash burn has been reduced to $6m, and they are tightening their belts and moving towards profitability in 2006 (hopefully). 

Also, the chart has a nice little ascending triangle just waiting to break out.  Tomorrow may be the day to break 1.20 again - look for the candle.

Oh, and its my pick for the stock picking contest, so I hope it does too

[ScottishTrader]

AVNX has been acting well since it retested support at 1.20 after the breakout on positive earnings - today it broke out of an ascending wedge to the upside - currently at 1.37.  The question now is whether it can break 1.40 and test recent highs - all looks good so far, just need a bit more volume to kick in....

Anyone else still holding AVNX???

[usedcasting]

I'm in and I wanted to thank you. Your posts here kept reminding me to keep an eye on it. I got back in just after that last report and baring anything ugly I plan on parking here for the long term.

Volumes pushing a bit and and it's bouncing off that $1.40 resistance.

Lets keep going!

uc.

[usedcasting]

Maybe the cause for some activity today.

Avanex revises Q2 net loss to $0.13 a share
Fri Feb 17, 2006 12:59 PM ET

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Avanex Corp. (AVNX.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Friday said it was revising its second-quarter net loss to $18.5 million, or 13 cents a share, from a previously reported net loss of $13.4 million, or 9 cents a share.

The maker of products for optical communication networks said the revision was to accommodate the one-time non-cash gain of $4.5 million which was earlier recognized as other income in its second-quarter results reported on Feb. 8.
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AVNX.O (Avanex Corp)
Last:    $1.39
Change:    +0.11
Up/Down:    +8.59%
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The gain from the extinguishment of the capital leases at the company's French subsidiary will be spread over the 12-year term of the remaining lease in the final accounting treatment, Avanex said in a statement. (Reporting by Dhanya Ann Thoppil in Bangalore)

[ScottishTrader]

Glad to hear it Usedcasting!  Yeah, I got in at 1.15 after the earnings release.  Had been scoping an entry around 1.06, but was all tied up at the time.  Anyway, it looks like you could be right, certainly at least the market didn't take this re-statement badly, and it means that a portion of this will be added to their bottom line for the next 3 quarters which is no bad thing.

I haven't figured out a targe yet, but while 1.40 is still holding it down, the pressure is on - I think it should break next week if it doesn't today - target of the ascending triangle is 1.45, let's see if it can push recent highs in the high 1.40s.  I still think this has a lot more to run over the longer term.

[ScottishTrader]

Well, I was just sure it would break 1.40 the other day when it pushed upward, left my computer for the rest of the day, and found it closed at 1.32!!  Which started the pullback all the way down to 1.19.  Bummed!! (and I was doing so well on the stock picking competition too )

But on the plus side, the last few days action has demonstrated the strong support at the 1.19-20 level, and I think we will see it push back into the 1.30s and 1.40s now.  AVNX seems to have developed a nice channel - my aim will be to sell near the top of the channel, now sitting in the mid 1.40s.  Will watch for resistance at 1.40 this time though.

[ScottishTrader]

AVNX ripping today - has broken through key resistance at 1.66 and is running big time

[Draak]

The triple play roll out is beginning the full roll out. AVNX supplies Nortel, Alcatel-lucent, Fujitsu, Siemens, Tellabs and Cisco just to name but a few of the big players.

It announced it's new product portfolio earlier this year.  The submarine business is in full swing.

Whats important here is AVNX supplies %70 of Alcatel's needs. Alcatel has a 29 province rollout in China, together with 52 current triple play roll out contracts.

Verizon is laying a new Pacific cable with the capacity to take 62 million consecutive phone calls. Verizon is also laying a 7th mesh Atlantic cable to provide Europe with the extra capacity needed for IPTV and increasing facilities.

Alcatel Lucent are at the end of both these global roll outs in a big way, AVNX supplies them.

The activity in the States is showing strength. M&A activity Ericcson Cisco.

AVNX has big potential 2007. No options problems at AVNX like VTSS FNSR.

AVNX growth is touching %50 annually. Over %12 sequentially Quarter after quarter. DD and Radar. 

[Draak]

Roll on the first quarter$$

[422fwhp]

Looks to have taken out some stops this a.m.

GLTA...Jody

[Draak]

On the move. Looking nice here!