SIFY

[David Randolph]

SIFY is in a bull trend as you can see on the chart below:



Looking at the company's financials since 1999 (I can do it pretty fast with a paid service I got), I see steady revenue growth at SIFY, from about 1.9 million a quarter in 1999 to 26 million in the 3rd quarter of 2005.

The revenue multiple for SIFY is 2.96, for REDF is 30.94 and for YHOO is 11.25.

Cramer said the following about SIFY: "Sify is not Google. It is an Indian Internet play. It's OK but not great." Of course SIFY is not Google, GOOG has a $123 billion market cap, SIFY is worth just $308 million. I think that's enough difference from an «American» company to an «Indian» company.

Thinking of India as a «fast growing economy» I believe SIFY will provide an attractive short and long term investment.

I'll buy SIFY for the 3 Stocks on Fire Portfolio around today's open, 6.66% of capital as always.

[irod]

 

[David Randolph]

SIFY broke out of a long term resistance yesterday with a powerful white marubozu. The stock is cheap, growth is big and stable, the market agrees with it.

Maybe another white marubozu today to complete a 3 white soldiers pattern, I don't know.

What I do know is that I want to keep on holding SIFY, they say a good trade is profitable right from the start, I think I can call SIFY a good trade. Having a good trade on my hands I need to be a good trader and let the profits run.

[David Randolph]

After a gap up the stock came down to retest the long term resistance that was broken yesterday. Although there are two news that can take SIFY down, it doesn't make any sense.

The first is this:

«Correction: Earns-Rediff.com Story
Tuesday December 13, 5:48 pm ET

MENLO PARK, Calif. (AP) -- In an Oct. 24 story about Rediff.com India Ltd.'s second quarter earnings, The Associated Press erroneously reported that the company earned $1.16 per American depositary share in the period. Instead, the company earned 1.16 cents per ADS, or 1 cent after rounding.»

I remember that when I was looking at SIFY I also read some things about REDF and thought it was incredibly expensive. Perhaps it would be a good hedge, long SIFY and short REDF. But I'm a bit afraid the stock opens with a big gap down today (on my news feeder the earnings news is right - but since these companies don't file the 10-Q report with the SEC, an erroneous press release may induce many people in error).

The other news is about BIDU: UPDATE 2-Baidu stock drops as public share float jumps

Probably SIFY will go down in sympathy with REDF and BIDU, but it doesn't make much sense,  SIFY has nothing to do with REDF or BIDU.

Since probably the open will be a lot lower there's no point in selling now to buyback at lower levels. I'll continue holding SIFY.

[David Randolph]

SIFY came down to exactly close the gap between $8.83 and $8.86. After this pullback the stock is ready to push higher again. I'll continue holding without reserves.

[David Randolph]

Yes, SIFY is coming back. Unfortunately I don't have time today to write more about it, sometimes I should change the order in which I do these updates, because I'm always running out of time when I get to the last holdings on the list.

I'll continue holding SIFY.

[shawFund]

Hi, David:

One suggestion: it is better if you could give update Sunday night instead of Monday morning so you can have enough time to prepare.

Many online investment services did so (they gave weekly update on Sunday).

[dcrlin]

David,

Are you concerned that SIFY is overbought and maybe too extended?  Could it it fail and fall big time?

Thanks for your thoughts.

dcrlin

Yes, SIFY is coming back. Unfortunately I don't have time today to write more about it, sometimes I should change the order in which I do these updates, because I'm always running out of time when I get to the last holdings on the list.

I'll continue holding SIFY.

[Terliso]

Hi, David:

One suggestion: it is better if you could give update Sunday night instead of Monday morning so you can have enough time to prepare.

Many online investment services did so (they gave weekly update on Sunday).

Yup, I agree with Shawfund.... anyway SIFY chart looks pretty good.. David, what is your price target for this bulllish stock?

[minkielover]

Me too. I agree with Shawfund and Terlisa.
Also, Is it posible to get the updates on the previous night instead of right before the market openings?
Thanks!

[David Randolph]

Me too. I agree with Shawfund and Terlisa.
Also, Is it possible to get the updates on the previous night instead of right before the market openings?
Thanks!

Thanks for your suggestion Yes, it is possible, the «problem» is my family  You know, my kid is always at school (and I'm at work) and I can only be with him at evening, after dinner, precisely after the US markets close.

But I'll see with my wife if we can arrange things so I can at least start updating holdings after the close, instead of before the open.

I don't know about the short term, but I feel inspired by the long term, just as Raju Vegesna is:

Silicon Valley Entrepreneur Raju Vegesna's Investment Partnership to Infuse Rs 1721 Million Into Sify in Addition to Acquiring Satyam's 31.61% Share; Investment a Vote of Confidence in Company's Performance and Future

«Satyam's divestiture is in line with its stated objective to emerge as pure play IT services and Solutions Company. As against its original investment of US $ 5 million in Sify, Satyam has received a total consideration of about US $117 million till date, making it a highly successful and value creating investment for Satyam's shareholders.»

Sify already gave 23 bags of profit to Satyam, I wonder how much will it give to Raju? If it also gives 23 bags we would see $129 a share for SIFY.

Fundamental trends in the company show clear growth in revenues and it is near profitability.

I'll continue holding SIFY, the trend is bullish and you're well accompanied on this investment   

[David Randolph]

We had a great rally yesterday on SIFY but then the general market tone took it down by the end of the session. Everything seems to be fine with SIFY's fundamentals, the company has great potential. But there's the general market risk.

I want to continue holding SIFY but protect myself from the general market risk in a clever way. On past updates I said the following:

I remember that when I was looking at SIFY I also read some things about REDF and thought it was incredibly expensive. Perhaps it would be a good hedge, long SIFY and short REDF. But I'm a bit afraid the stock opens with a big gap down today (on my news feeder the earnings news is right - but since these companies don't file the 10-Q report with the SEC, an erroneous press release may induce many people in error).

Since this update, SIFY went up 12.4% and REDF declined  8%.

Looking at the fundamentals of both companies, I believe this

1) If the market goes down REDF will go down much more than SIFY;
2) If the market goes up SIFY will rise much more than REDF;
3) If current trends continue, SIFY will go up and REDF will go down, making this hedge profitable in both ways.

So, I'll continue holding SIFY and will protect this investment selling REDF short.

[David Randolph]

SIFY rose 6.8%, REDF rose 2.7%. This hedge between these two Indian stocks, one undervalued and other overvalued allows me to comfortably continue holding SIFY.

[shawFund]

SIFY is the best pick among all the stocks here. But we do not need to use REDF to hedge it.

Both are in bullish trend. Doing so will just cancelled out the gains from  SIFY.

For me, buy SIFY but not short REDF.

I found out whoever shorts a stock, the stock went up. Even MSN Money short picks have the same result. All of their short picks are in red.

If the stock is going down, the mm did not want to give the stocks to you to short like I tried few months ago for MOVI short. Didn't get the shares to short.

[Gu$tavo]

Actually my shorts are the best investments for the time being...
I'm again short whit GM since 1st dic. (@22.48) )and VDSI since 25 dic.(@ 10.11)
I'm thinking of closing this week one of these and open a new short with redf when the trend change..

my last shorts closed ....

GM    7/9/2005 - 13/10/2005     ---> 26%
TOL   26/8/2005 - 13/10/2005   ---> 28%
CELG  21/10/2005 - 26/10/2005 ---> - 3%
RIMM  25/10/2005 - 08/11/2005 ---> - 10%
VLO    7/11/2005 - 7/12/2005    ---> - 1%

the others one's ....

GM     1/12/2005 ---- open --- > 21%
VDSI  15/12/2005 --- open ---> 3%