OPWV

[Se7en]

It's really paying of to have some patience with OPWV. After all, the stock was set to breakout higher, but it had a pullback on profit taking.

At this moment there's no doubt the breakout above the $17.71 long term resistance was made and this formation gives me a potential rise to somewhere around $30 

30$???

Will she keep running for a few days or will there again be some profit taking?

[David Randolph]

It is impossible to know if a stock will move up on a straight line after a breakout or if it will pullback. You know the trend, you know the technical target of the breakout and that's all it is possible to know.

Thank you for your post, have a nice day 

[David Randolph]

OPWV traded for the second day above the all important $17.71 resistance, now support. I'm holding this stock for the medium term, the technical target of the breakout is somewhere around $30, which is nothing special, just a 61% rise from current levels.

Sometimes I get amazed by how people think in dollar changes instead of percentage changes.

[Se7en]

This hopefully will help us stay positive today ...

Telefonica Moviles Espana Selects Openwave Messaging Suite to Offer Consumer and Corporate Customers a Single Inbox for All Messaging Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/050713/sfw070.html?.v=17


From Raymond James (7/11)
Reit Strong Buy 1   
Openwave has the right products in the right market at the right time. The company is also poised to drive revenue growth to the bottom line, in our opinion, given facilities and R&D initiatives.   
http://www.jagnotes.com/veritysearch_results_jagnotes.cfm?id=0E8EFE7F-3DA3-471E-B88580ACE3E3D599

[David Randolph]

Se7en already brought us this news on OPWV: Telefonica Moviles Espana Selects Openwave Messaging Suite to Offer Consumer and Corporate Customers a Single Inbox for All Messaging Services

Technically OPWV has a lot of support underneath current levels so probably it is just a matter of time before the stock makes another white marubozu to new highs.

[Se7en]

OPWV looked very strong today, also good volume!

Any comments on this, was posted on the yahoo board:
Triple Top Breakout from 2 days ago is holding. They've been trying to sell us off, but can't even manage a buck. We are going to new highs very soon.

You can see the nice cup from 3 years ago with blow-off bottom in October 02. Since then, we have just been forming a handle which has been forming for over 2 years. And the longer the handle (bases), the bigger the breakout.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=OPWV,uu[w,a]daclyyay[df][pb50!e5][vc60][iUg!Lb14]&pref=G

[David Randolph]

I generally agree with those comments.

Considering OPWV, the stock has a lot of underneath support now and the line of least resistance is up.

[David Randolph]

OPWV is consolidating for 4 days now. $18.18 is supporting the stock. The trend is bullish and it will continue with more strength after this consolidation phase. This is no micro cap, OPWV has more than a billion dollars in market cap, so it moves slowly.

[David Randolph]

OPWV has been resilient and it is getting ready to push higher. Medium term price target around $30.

[David Randolph]

Another new 3 year high on OPWV. Let the profits run ...

[David Randolph]

Another day, another rise for OPWV. Volume is picking up ...

[Pete]

Gosh, What happened. I got stopped out at 17.97. I never thought it will loose so much when the going was good. At least still  I made a few bucks 

[fctrade]

your stop is too conservative. If OPWV back up above 18.8 today, it's whole new ball game. Right now, most of stops are out with lots of short still uncovered(maybe), this allows OPWV run even fast. Still looking 20 before cc.

[Pete]

fctrade,

Lucky me (I hope),  I am back in at lower 17.90. My stop was lower than a dollar and I did not see any reason why it would go down, specially when it was having such a good run. My problem is I get stopped out too frequently  I normally put 20% for BB'a and 7-10% for others.

If I keep it too low, I become a bag holder like in the cases of blyc, epyh and aret.

How do you manage your stops? Any insight is appreciated.
TIA
P

[David Randolph]

So many days to work OPWV higher and then it comes a severe down day to blow it all off. Well, nothing unnatural in this market behavior, it is what it is, there's no point in arguing with it.

We've had these news yesterday: Openwave Announces Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2005 Conference Call

Results will be out on August 4th.

How do you manage your stops? Any insight is appreciated.

Well, I almost never place a stop order in the market. It looks they act like a magnet to the stock price 

Nothing happening in the intraday can make me change the opinion I made with the market closed. Money management and appropriate diversification makes me prepared even for a stock I hold to be delisted overnight (that would mean in the worst case scenario a 6.66% loss of total capital).

For a man to buy a stock he should have a reason. He should take a loss when that reason no longer has validity. Let me tell you what I do:

1) I buy for a reason, be it technical or fundamental
2) I design a technical trading plan, so the market must agree with my reasoning for me to keep holding the stock
3) I follow that trading plan

So, there's no hard rule to place a stop, it must be linked to a trading plan ...

Let's take OPWV, for example. I bought because the medium term trend was up and a potential ascending triangle formation breakout was in the making. The breakout and it's technical target is my hope for profits. The trend must continue to be up for me to keep hoping. If the trend ceases to be up my reason for buying no longer exists and I must take the loss, that's the normal risk of this business.

Taking these small losses only makes you stronger and available for the next speculative venture and profits. It's when a man doesn't take his loss when he should that things get tricky, one gets lost and probably needs to start it all over again.

Discipline is a lot more important than a profit in any given position.

Coming back to OPWV, as you can see in the chart below, the stock is still in an uptrend, given by that ascending trendline. My plan is to hold the stock as long as it closes above that ascending trendline, which today will be at $17.28.