ONT

[stockster]

Melf, et al:

This was posted on one of the other boards.

http://i14.tinypic.com/2psefpd.jpg


Looks like two large blocks sold at multiple fill prices lower...

[Se7en]

difficult decision to make, I'll watch what the end of day brings us ... 

[Melf Elf]

Melf, et al:

This was posted on one of the other boards.

http://i14.tinypic.com/2psefpd.jpg


Looks like two large blocks sold at multiple fill prices lower...

Thanks, Stockster.  That's interesting, isn't it? 

I can't figure that one at all.  I'm not one to ignore a break of support, but since 1.10 otherwise has held as the low of the day, I'd play it out however you planned.

If the 1.02 was meaningful, we likely will see 1.09...1.08...1.07 before the close, or tomorrow.

difficult decision to make, I'll watch what the end of day brings us ... 

Yeah, this is a tough one, Se7en.  We got a lot of bearish information today, with the channel break, and with the possible gap-filling Right Shoulder rally this morning, 1.20.

I'd reall-lly like to see a close of 1.15, or better, back into the channel on a Bullish Doji Star Hammer, then upside follow-thru tommorrow.

Good luck, guys!

[Melf Elf]

nope wasn't me on the big drop- my stop filled at an average of 1.09.

boatguy,

That really surprises me that you got filled at 1.09, given the Open, High, Low, and Close of that 1-Minute bar that I posted.  That looks shady, indeed, like they took out 203,100 shares worth of stop orders, then put the stock back at the 1.10, which otherwise, has held up as the low all day.

Very strange.

Sorry that you got stopped out on a thing like that, especially after having held the stock for so long.

You definitely get an APPLAUD for that hard-earned money! 

[stockster]

Yes, that puzzles me too, since the low for the day without those spikes was $1.10...

Of course, it looks like it closed only a hair right above that, at $1.11...

Which would mean if the selling pressure continues unabated tomorrow, then we may be looking at what Melf said earlier?

So far, all we've accomplished on the spike to 1.20 is to fill the gap from yesterday's 1.20.

If we don't do anything more than that, and stall around under 1.20, or even rally below 1.26 (the high of the Right Shoulder), then break below 1.10, that would complete the H&S Top, and a target of $0.79 IN PLAY.

Math:

1.43 - High of the Head

1.11 - The more conservative of the 1.11 - 1.10 neckline

1.43 - 1.11 = 0.32 = Target: $0.78 EDIT: Sorry, it's $0.79

That, essentially, would be a Parabolic Return of the recent Parabolic Rally, like XNN had yesterday.

In any event, it looks like we may need to test $1.00 tomorrow, from my glance at the chart...

[boatguy]

nope wasn't me on the big drop- my stop filled at an average of 1.09.

boatguy,

That really surprises me that you got filled at 1.09, given the Open, High, Low, and Close of that 1-Minute bar that I posted.  That looks shady, indeed, like they took out 203,100 shares worth of stop orders, then put the stock back at the 1.10, which otherwise, has held up as the low all day.

Very strange.

Sorry that you got stopped out on a thing like that, especially after having held the stock for so long.

You definitely get an APPLAUD for that hard-earned money! 

I was wrong my order filled at $1.08-

[stockster]

You were definitely part of one of those quick spikes down then - sorry to hear!  Man, that's a bummer - you essentially got robbed, and I would complain to your broker...

Here were your shares, here's your evidence of a poor fill:

http://i14.tinypic.com/2psefpd.jpg


So unfortunately this also means those downdrafts were "real" and not misprints.


As an aside, I see you're paying $10 commissions, and maybe you could use a new broker anyway.  I just read about this new brokerage that offers $2.50/trade flat/unlimited shares with decent margin rates and money market interest rates - I'm looking more into them:

http://www.just2trade.com


Anyway, tough day for ONT.  Melf, where to from here, you think?

[HANDBALLJIM]

Thanks guys for the play by play today...

I failed to look at a 2 year chart on ONT...instead I got caught up a little too much on the concept of video on the web. The 2 year chart clearly shows strong resistance at the $1.40 area.

I am hoping that we continue to see high volume and of course some more good news. I lot was said on 3SOF about video on the web being the future...
I think video on the web is NOW!!! and in the near future...better quality on smaller gadgets. Perhaps streaming on gadgets...I would like to see easier ways to get live video to the web more quickly.

As far as ONT, this year can be a breakout year, I am looking for nice numbers when 4 quarter earnings come out. Plus I would not be surprised if they hooked up with big players in the multimedia industry. Not sure yet if I will reduce my position  

[HANDBALLJIM]

hmmmm I want news and found some!!!

http://www.businessweekly.co.uk/news/view_article.asp?article_id=11375

The explosive growth of website's such as YouTube marked out 2006 as the year of video over the net.

New York and Cambridge based On2 set out how its video compression codecs could make video-streaming on demand even more ubiquitous.

Highlights included its trueMotion VP7 compression technology, which allows high-definition video to be streamed at data rates as low as 2Mbps; TrueMobile, a mobile video system aimed at reaching the largest number of handsets across the most networks, including 2.5G, 3G and 4G networks; and On2's transcoding and playback solutions that allow web video content to be played back on any device - TV, PC, and mobile phones - for true cross- platform applications.

Bill Joll, president and CEO of On2 Technologies said: "We are showcasing these because of major customer initiatives behind these solutions, and we expect important consumer electronics products to ship in 2007, as a result."

[boatguy]

Hey guys- don't count me out yet, I am still bullish on ONT and am watching close for the right re entry.

You were definitely part of one of those quick spikes down then - sorry to hear!  Man, that's a bummer - you essentially got robbed, and I would complain to your broker...

Here were your shares, here's your evidence of a poor fill:

http://i14.tinypic.com/2psefpd.jpg


So unfortunately this also means those downdrafts were "real" and not misprints.


As an aside, I see you're paying $10 commissions, and maybe you could use a new broker anyway.  I just read about this new brokerage that offers $2.50/trade flat/unlimited shares with decent margin rates and money market interest rates - I'm looking more into them:

http://www.just2trade.com


Anyway, tough day for ONT.  Melf, where to from here, you think?

Thanks for the tip Stockster, I had 76 trades last quarter so I could use a break on the commissions.

I have complained about etrades rates and service. I used to be able to trade immediately after making a funds transfer and never had to wait for funds to clear, all of a sudden this isn't good enough for them!! They want to hold the money for days so they can make a few dollars interest while my trading is restricted. They make plenty on commissions from my trading and I am about fed up with the ever increasing fees and unwanted restrictions.

Oh well, see how it goes-good luck to those still in

[njshiva]

count me in $1.02 

out  today $1.18. 

[bocasva]

I have complained about etrades rates and service. I used to be able to trade immediately after making a funds transfer and never had to wait for funds to clear, all of a sudden this isn't good enough for them!! They want to hold the money for days so they can make a few dollars interest while my trading is restricted. They make plenty on commissions from my trading and I am about fed up with the ever increasing fees and unwanted restrictions.

LOL, same experience/opinion here about etrade.
I'm in the process of giving a try those low priced brokers:

-$2.50 at JUST2TRADE (already mentioned above by stockster)
-$2.95 at SPEEDTRADER
-$3.00 at SOGOINVEST
-FREE at BANK OF AMERICA with a minimum $25,000 balance
-FREE at ZECCO with no minimum balance

I'll give them a try to test for trade routing speed and objectivity/neutrality.

On the negative side most of those low priced brokers don't offer a lot of the advanced trading tools that ETrade Pro has.

Back to ONT, I'm also still watching for a second round re-entry .

[mitchjas]

Out also at 1.21.  I bailed about lunch time yesterday because volume was too high for a down day.  Note:  I didn't post this yesterday because I wasn't on the board at all yesterday.

Jason

[Melf Elf]

Anyway, tough day for ONT.  Melf, where to from here, you think?

Stockster,

Since we can't know the future, let's look at what we do know:

1. On the January 5 and January 8 unconvincing closes above the channel, did we get "Sell Las Vegas," as we suspected?  YES.

2. Did we get get confirmation, that January 8 was a Bearish Doji Star Hangman at the top of the channel? YES.

3. Did we get a break of the channel, basis the Hourly Chart? YES.

4. Did we get a re-test of that break, that failed? YES

5. Did we break the channel, basis the Daily Chart? YES.

6. Did we get a pattern morph, from a Rising Channel, to a H&S Top, with a neckline at 1.11 and 1.10?  YES.

7. Did we do nothing more than have a Right Shoulder gap-filling rally to 1.20, then another  break below the channel?  YES.

7. Did we CLOSE below the channel? YES.

8. Did the 1.11 - 1.10 neckline fail to hold up, as support?

So unfortunately this also means those downdrafts were "real" and not misprints.

Apparently, the answer to that question also is YES.

All of that, obviously, is really getting ahead of ourselves, and speculating, but I'm trying to think of any reason that I could justify holding a break of the channel, basis the daily chart, at 1.14 for today.

I guess we weren't ahead of ourselves after all.    We CLOSED below 1.14, but...

I could justify holding through 1.10, for that reason.  I've seen that pattern form a number of times, looking ver-ry bearish, then the stock turns higher, and rallies to new highs.

1.10 proved to rock solid support all day, other than the aberrant 1-Minute Bar at 1:10PM (sorry about that stop out, boatguy).

Given that we know that boatguy got filled at 1.08, and that you (stockster) posted us about other trades going off below 1.10, I wouldn't throw out the H&S Top possibiltiy entirely, but it certainly is less reliable than we thought.

Key Resistance for today, January 11:

1.16 - That's where the bottom of the channel comes in today.  It was validated support.  "Former support 'should' become resistance.

1.16 - Arguably, the lows of January 3 and January 9 are the first neckline of a DOUBLE H&S Top, basis the Hourly Chart.  The lows of 1.11 - 1.10 are the second neckline.

If we rally, I'd expect to see quite a few trades at 1.16 get printed today.

1.26-1.27 - Those are the TWO Left Shoulders of the DOUBLE H&S Top, if that pattern still is at all valid.

Given all of the bearish factors that we examined at the beginning of this post, in my view, 1.27 now is the number to beat on the upside, to get ONT back into shape for any more rally.

1.28 would be an upside takeout of the TWO Left Shoulders, which would look bullish.

FWIW, had I been long, yesterday's CLOSE below the channel, the bottom of which was a validated trendline, would have forced me to cash in and take the money.  Holding long a thing like that is a BIG "no-no" in my book.  Right or wrong.

For those of you still long, the best case, as I see it, is:

1. Yesterday's swoosh to 1.02 in the 1-Minute bar at 1:10PM is a Bear Trap (something that traps us into thinking that it's bearish, but it ends up being very bullish).

2. Yesterday's candle is a Bullish Doji Star Hammer, and we'll get confirmation of that by:

a. Getting back into the channel, at 1.16

b. Taking out yesterday's 1.20 high, telling us that we have more than just a Right Shoulder gap-filling rally.

c. Taking out the Left Shoulders at 1.26-1.27, by printing 1.28.

3. Taking out the Head, at 1.43.  VERY BULISH, if that occurs.  1.75 would be IN PLAY.

For those of you looking to re-enter, support levels are:

0.97 - the Top of the Blue Channel

0.93 - 50DMA

0.79 - 200DMA

0.79 will be IN PLAY on anything below 1.10, as long as ONT trades below that.

Even though I haven't played this one, I've enjoyed everyone's participation and comments, particularly the honesty in sharing of experiences, T2T.  That's what I like best about 3SOF, that we all can learn and not feel embarrassed about sharing our mistakes, as well as our successes.

Good luck, everyone!   

[Melf Elf]

Prior to 10:10 AM, there only was a single trade of 100 shares, at 1.08.  No trades at 1.09.  Everything else was above 1.10.  The 1.08 trade is strange.  These jokesters seem to like to play games.

At any rate, 1.10 support finally broke convicingly, at the 10:10AM 1-Minute bar, the low of which was 1.07.  The low, so far, is 1.04, and ONT currently is back to 1.08.

0.79 is IN PLAY, as long as ONT trades below 1.10.  At 1.10, or above, the target goes ON HOLD (neutral).