ONT

[stockster]

I know, I saw that:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ONT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p54379445690

Big red candle, with largest red volume on the chart...  So, I am cautious.

[Phil Haines]

Just want to let you know I find all of your analysis facinating about ON2.  I've owned this stock since 1999.  I watched it go to over $40.  I've never sold any of it yet - just accumulated.  I now own in the six digits and have promised my family not to buy any more.  I'm more of a fundalmentalist and I really don't understand much of your jargon, but for short term trading it looks great.  I just happened on this site last week and I can't wait to read more.  Oh, by the way, my lowest price I paid for ON2 was 13 cents.  Am looking forward to a few ticks up this week.

[laker2000]

Ont upgraded!!



Wednesday, January 17, 2007

Calls of Note Part 2
ThinkEquity is positive on On2 Technologies (AMEX:ONT) saying the shares have retreated roughly 20% after a solid run up into the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). However, they believe 2007 is shaping up to be different than previous years, when ONT stock has fallen and remained out of favor (post-CES) in accordance with static financial results. Based on conversations with several industry contacts at CES, the firm believes that On2's sales pipeline is building better than their previously expected, giving them confidence to raise both their estimates and price target, as well as move up their breakeven estimate to 1Q'07. Firm reiterates On2 as their top pick for 2007.

According to checks, they believe that On2's pipeline is shaping up to outperform expectations. More promising, in firm's view, is that the company is also seeing an uptick relative to its average licensing deal, which they believe ranges from $60,000 to $100,000. This, coupled with a shift to a growing number of royalty or residual-based transaction structures, gives them increased confidence in the company's ability to outperform estimates.

Price tgt is raised to $1.70 from $1.40.
Rate it:

[setravis]

This one trading like mad.  Muito trades in just a few minutes,
it's on fire.
Did you see the news about Joost?
http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9588_22-6150225.html
Does this stock have anything to do with that? Anyone Know?

[stockster]

No, I thought it might have a shot at that, but then I read last week how Joost ("The Venice Project") uses an H.264 (competing) video codec:

http://newteevee.com/2007/01/11/venice-project-mozilla

[boatguy]

Been in line for the beta test for awhile now myself.

Email from VP

Folks,

Yesterday we were The Venice Project... today we are Joost!

While we're still in beta, we hope that Joost will become synonymous
with the best of TV and the best of the Web.

We're working on putting more content on the platform and creating more
and more applications and functionality. For those of you who've already
been on the client, you can expect to see some of these updates in the
0.8 release - which is not far away at all.

Now that we're Joost, we're going to be sending out many more beta
invitations. I know some of you have been waiting quite some time
for your invitation and I appreciate your patience. We've been
somewhat conservative about expanding our beta - but that's
going to change pretty rapidly now. So please keep a lookout
for your invitation if you haven't gotten one already. And
when you do receive it - please tell us what you think.

I have to say, we have an absolutely amazing team at Joost, and
I include our beta testers as part of that team. Beta tester
feedback on the platform has been so incredibly valuable. We've
incorporated a lot of it into the platform - making it that
much better. So please, keep it coming!

Stay tuned.

BR,
Fredrik
--

Should be interesting

Overview of the Joost P2P TV

http://www.playfuls.com/news_05863_Overview_of_the_Joost_P2P_TV.html

[stockster]

Melf, where to from here, you think?

...
1.27 now is the number to beat on the upside, to get ONT back into shape for further rally.

1.28 would be an upside takeout of the TWO Left Shoulders, which would look bullish.

Melf, you called it perfectly again!  ONT has been acting very bullishly the past three days, and today did exactly what you said it needed to : closed above the previous mark to morph into a very bullish pattern...

What do your charts say now?  I'm seeing $1.70 as being IN PLAY now on the upside, especially with this analyst upgrade and target increase...

[laker2000]

Noted today on cnbc that the fcc said under current rules a merger between xm and sirius would not be allowed...so to the moon alice...

[joet]

Hello Phil Haines

Welcome to 3SOF.  If you have a minute could you share the fundamental story as to why you believe in ONT so strongly?

I have been more of a trader for the past year, but also have not sold ONT and it seems to be in the right sector with a good product for 2007.

Could you share some of your other fundamental picks?  Have you researched NMKT.ob at all?  I do not see many self-declared fundamentalists interested in the pennies so would be curious on your thoughts on that one.  I still like HEC, CHCI, SMTX and MOBL based on their numbers, but they are not currently hot traders.

Back to ONT,  technically I should have sold some a few weeks ago when it attempted new 52wk highs, but I held thinking that it would break out on the first try!  Now it looks like it will make another run at the 1.50 mark.... Hmmm volume has remained strong on this pull back so I am optimistic.   Seems like you have a number of shares to play with, do you have a target to sell some?   How about a support level?  1.00 seems to me to be important for ONT, if that gets broken I will probably stop out ½ of my pos.

Thanx too all for the posts on ONT!  Lets hope that momentum continues.
Cheers Joe

[stockster]

Well, a shame to see that was a false breakout/recovery and instead a quick end to ONT's second run.  I got stopped out on the way back down with a small loss.  A weak end to the week as well; the weekly chart looks even worse now with a second large red candle:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ONT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p54379445690


No new news from the company this week but I think I know why the stock was down the past couple days...  There was a lot of discussion on one of the other boards about how Adobe released a special new "Flash Media Encoder" that does On2 video, but is being given away for free.  I don't follow all the ins and outs, but there was a lot of talk on how it might be cutting under what On2 offers.

Anyway for the stock, looks like a further retracement but might have one more bounce left in it around $1.00, we'll see.

[Phil Haines]

Hi Joe,  I've been offline for two days and have just read your post.  My fundamentals on ON2 - thats a good question.  Way back when I first looked at ON2.com I read an article about how superior it was to anything out there.  I began to think in terms of it becoming the standard in its relm just like windows is in its relm.  I watched it soar to over $40.  I had only a few hundred shares at that time and I had $100 as my goal so of course I became married to it.  As time went on and it headed south my exposure wasn't that great so I just held on.  If you know the whole story it became a real struggle for the company and then there was a quarter when the head people didn't take pay and that's when I became aggressive.  It bottomed around 8 cents and I began buying at 13 cents.    My experience with this company has taught me to never load up on any company that isn't making a profit.  Needless to say I have kept this company a secret from all my family and friends not wanting anyone to take a hit as would I if it tanked. I truly felt 2006 would be the breakout year but little did I know we would go through a management change.  I had a great repore with Doug and could email him my thoughts whenever I wanted and I really liked that.  He would always email me back.  I would not recommend to anyone they do as I have done with this stock.  I used to have many different stocks but over the years I have truly dug in with ON2.  I like the name, I like the product and I like the management.  Bill Joll seems to be the right fit for ON2 and I think he will really help the company.  The right clients seem to be lining up and as long as they don't turn out to be E Worlds we should be OK.  They must make a profit soon or we will be right back at 70 cents or so.  Chartist will always make money with a company that moves around, but I simply do not have the time or energy.  I hope this gives you some insight from a buy and hold guy like me.

[joet]

Thanks for your story Phil
I am holding my ONT and NMKT, hope that a down turn in the nasdaq does not hurt these 2 positions too much.
You may like SMTX for a technology buy and hold as well.  a littly high here at 2.70 for entry, but with a PE of 8 and increasing earnings i believe that it has turned a corner and will be up in 2007  (would like to see a performance like FTGX although i still can not tell what is driving that run!!!)

Have a good week and lets see if ONT can hold on to 1.10
Cheers Joe

[Phil Haines]

Does anyone know how things went in India?

[boatguy]

This may make it easier for the adoption of H.264 codec.

I hoped it went the other way as it would have been great news for ONT.

Broadcom claims legal win over Qualcomm

http://www.eetimes.com/news/semi/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=197001066

[lancefur]

Based on this settled lawsuit, would that possible affect the stock price in the short term? Or is this settled lawsuit not significant to have such an impact?