DIET

eliteG · March 14, 2006, 11:26:45 PM

yo Fous.. It will definately be cool to see how DIET plays out.. will definately keep that line in mind.

Thats a lot of charting my man.. and great stuff at that

. I'm just gonna slip the DIET update around this stuff so our members get a chance to see it.

eliteG · March 14, 2006, 11:28:00 PM

DIET was devastated 4 trading days ago and it will take more than this 4.5% gain to show it is getting back on fire. The 200 day moving average and the $5 price level should offer strong support.. enough to get DIET to bounce a bit stronger, otherwise we are wasting a slot that should be given to a stock on fire.

Today DIET met the stop criteria we set but it could have been better. DIET was repulsed by the halfway point of the tall red candle 2 trading day ago. The halfway point on tall candles offer excellent support/resistance areas Wink. So DIET must be able to beat and close above that area tomorrow to remain in this portfolio. The stop loss should move up also.

We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29 or hits our intra-day stop of 4.79.

usedcasting · March 15, 2006, 08:38:34 AM

I just wanted to second lucas's idea the other day for some kind of "3 Stocks on Ice". As we all know, we learn allot from negative situations and this surely was a big negative. The analysis going on here is superb, and its because it's representing a different kind of challenge. This doesn't come along to often and maybe these mistakes won't be so large in the future but when they happen maybe we could take advantage of them like whats going on here. There's a good chance it will be sold in short order so I don't feel it would waste a tremendous among of time for periodic reviews (perhaps once a week).

uc.

PS. Melf get back on board man, allot of people miss your input!

KCScott · March 15, 2006, 12:12:44 PM

G, Mike & Rams:

3SOF is sending daily updates for Long Term & Pennies portfolios.

Since many of the members are in these stocks as well as the this portfoilio, I think we should see the threads updated with trading plans.

There are some nice gains in the Pennies and some ugly losses in the Long term.

Updates / Plan is needed.

Thanks,

Scott in KC

eliteG · March 15, 2006, 03:00:43 PM

Quote from: KCScott on March 15, 2006, 12:12:44 PM
G, Mike & Rams:

3SOF is sending daily updates for Long Term & Pennies portfolios.

Since many of the members are in these stocks as well as the this portfoilio, I think we should see the threads updated with trading plans.

There are some nice gains in the Pennies and some ugly losses in the Long term.

Updates / Plan is needed.

Thanks,

Scott in KC

Hey Scott

absolutely! Those picks must have their trading plans updated!

Also, wanted to give everybody a heads up to check their email later today for a 3StocksOnFire update

tokyopua · March 15, 2006, 07:14:09 PM

Did DIET squeak by again today and not get sold? It still shows up in the 3SOF portfolio, so just wondering...

Lucas Scott · March 15, 2006, 07:37:00 PM

I assume the 3SoF position is closed per E-G's guidance "We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29...."

I am holding for greener days ahead.

Ramsburg · March 15, 2006, 08:20:08 PM

Quote from: tokyopua on March 15, 2006, 07:14:09 PM
Did DIET squeak by again today and not get sold? It still shows up in the 3SOF portfolio, so just wondering...

Following the plan DIET was sold @ 5.20 today.

The portfolio page is now updated.

regards,

tokyopua · March 15, 2006, 08:20:55 PM

Quote from: Lucas Scott on March 15, 2006, 07:37:00 PM
I assume the 3SoF position is closed per E-G's guidance "We will HOLD DIET unless it is set to close below 5.29...."

I am holding for greener days ahead.

I held it too, though if I get fully invested and find better picks (or get better picks from the new team ;-) I may sell it then. For now though, downside seems limited.

1reilly · March 16, 2006, 06:27:43 AM

Luke
I think I understand why G has managed this position the way he has. I on the other hand have decided to stay the course for a while. I have not yet been able to build a case for a new purchase but I think our patience will be rewarded. 4.64 takes me out .l

jorgegr · March 17, 2006, 01:21:40 AM

Do you still hold DIET in this "SV" portfolio??? or was it sold together with SOF

jorgegr

Michael · March 17, 2006, 06:30:42 AM

Quote from: jorgegr on March 17, 2006, 01:21:40 AM
Do you still hold DIET in this "SV" portfolio??? or was it sold together with SOF

Hi Jorge

Yes DIET is still in the 3SOV portfolio. We will issue a trading update over the weekend.

Michael · March 19, 2006, 03:33:50 PM

As discussed in the DIET 3SOF thread this stock's incredible run from 4.5 to 8 was driven by speculation that eDiet would repeat NTRI's great success in the meal delivery business. These speculations came to an abrupt standstill when DIET released its Q4 earnings.

The company expects approximately $1 million in gross revenues related to the meal delivery business in Q1. In the CC they estimates the average sales price at $25 per day. A rough calculation therefore indicates they will have an average of 444 customers in Q1 2006.

So the excitement about the meal delivery business is on hold until we get further news, which the company expects to deliver at the Q1 earnings release.

Most discussions here on 3SOF have been on the meal delivery business so it is high time to look at the total business.

The company's guided that EPS would at least double in 2006. That all sounds good except that the analysts expected EPS to reach 0.27 in 2006 before the Q4 earnings and not 0.12 which the company now guides.

If you go into the details which was discussed at the conference call it turns out that DIET is expecting a 15% decrease in subscribers to their website in 2006. This is partly offset by an average subscription increase of 5%. As this is their main business a direct decline in what supposedly should be a growth business is really disappointing.

It seems like the increase in EPS is mainly driven by a decrease in marketing spend and the expected future earnings in the meal delivery business.

eDiet doesn't seem cheap compared to other companies in the same space with a proven concept. DIET's PE (ttm) is 85 and the forward PE (05) is 28.3. (The company's own guidance gives a 2005 PE of 42.5):

DIET had a small bounce after the free fall. The stock price is now resting on the MA200:

There is not much to be excited about when it comes to DIET. It could still bounce of the MA200 but we think the stock is faired valued at this point in time. We will therefore sell the stock at the opening on Monday.

eDiet will continue to be on the watch list and if the meal delivery business takes off we might buy the stock back.

1reilly · March 20, 2006, 11:26:11 AM

Luke
If you look at the volume of 26M it appears 3sof didn't have much left to sell on the open today. You and I might be the only two still in this thing. I will tell you that Michael's call of 440 some odd users of this FC product in Q1 means that over 20% are located at Diana's health club. If that's the case they need to hire Diana and get her off my payroll.
Mike

Lucas Scott · March 21, 2006, 03:52:40 PM

hey Reilly - DIET has been in rally mode for the second half of the day, especially the last hour. Maybe this is day 1 of a 3-day bounce. The chart is set up right for it.

News:

DIET