SPY

[422fwhp]

Yea, I'm mostly cash too...with the exception of a short some pink I bought way back when...bagholder on that one.

GLTA...Jody

[brandyjoco]

I'm mostly cash too except some gold stocks. $SPX has the next support at 1350 (currently at 1390). Then the next support at 50ma is at 1280. Some analysts feel it will attempt to form a handle on the current 4-year cup. Sorry - I do not know how to post charts...

[wrangler]

I'm mostly cash too except some gold stocks. $SPX has the next support at 1350 (currently at 1390). Then the next support at 50ma is at 1280. Some analysts feel it will attempt to form a handle on the current 4-year cup. Sorry - I do not know how to post charts...

brandyjoco
Here's link in help topic on how to add chart when posting. hope this helps
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=7157.0

[Stocky2000]

In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope ........ And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out — too soon ........ The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a far bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

~ Jesse Livermore

[traderjbr]

My notes on the QID,maybe one more swoon down if my count is correct

[pinoleropuro]

check this guy's video on the SPY.

[brandyjoco]

Awesome video! It is really right on according to all of the charts that I have been studying.

There was a bearish 50/200 cross this week on the Wilshire 5000, Dow, Sp500, etc. Even if there are  bounces the 20 & 50 MA will be resistance. The $NDX has a 5 yr major support at 1700 but is currently at just below 1900. The Wilshire 5000 ($WLSH) is below the 4yr major support of 13,900 and is currently at 13,772. Many of the sectors have already dropped below their long term support lines.

Please be cautious! I am in cash. There may be a nasty 10% drop ahead of us and very soon. Is anyone else as concerned about this as me?

[brandyjoco]

If $compq breaks below 2375 then the next stop is 2000 - that is about 15%. The $NDX is now at 1857 - the next stop is 1700. Please be careful....

[traderjbr]

The bears have built a nice pattern here on the QID/QQQQ since my last visit. I don't see any overlapping waves up to this point and the latest triangle pattern for the QID or (Bear Pennant on the QQQQ) looks more convincing now that it's a five wave impulse even though I'm still suspicious of wave (1). Anything's possible when it comes to triangle's but it looks like the continuation type to me. If the QQQQ were break downward in a 5th wave we could be looking at 6-7 points lower, much like  in wave 1.On the DOW and SPX, I'm counting them as ABC's as both seem to have some overlapping waves and internal structures made of 3's instead of fives.Stay focused!

[traderjbr]

Best case to worst case on the QQQQ:

1) The 5th wave Truncates at or near the Jan 23 low of 41.61

2) The 5th wave ends up equal in price to wave 1 approx 6-7 points ending near 36.43

3) The 5th wave extends 1.618 x wave 1-3 added to the low of wave 4 ending near 21.14

So far case 1 looks ok as the triangle break or thrust has been fairly subdued on a price/volume basis.I'm hoping for the best preparing for the worst..

[Ramsburg]

Here some quick technical notes for the SPX:

- From October to March, a solid bear trend was in place, with several down-swings of bigger intensity and heavy volume for the extended selling zones. The last down-swing, ended in March, creating a false downside breakout.

-  After the false breakout (March), the index is developing a steady up-swing (still in play), that ended the previous pattern with an upside breakout and new relative higher highs. During the process an Inverted H&S was designed and triggered (a pattern that is still in play). This kind of price action (after a false breakout), suggests a big Baskerville signal in place (compatible with the Inverted H&S target near 1500).

- Moving average analysis: the EMA-50 is still below the EMA-200, still marking the presence of the down trend, but the EMA-50 has already a positive leaning while the EMA-200 is flat. These are lagging indicators, but its current layout suggest an upside inversion taking place for the mid-term (not yet confirmed).

-Short term analysis: the index reversed today at 1440, creating a new resistance level for short term. Momentum analysis may suggest a consolidation to take place before a new advance, but the up swing is still intact at this point. On the downside, I would point 1406 (aprox the EMA-200) and 1388 which has been a reaction zone, both values to take in consideration in a probable consolidation scenario.

My overall sentiment for the SPX is bullish right now despite from a possible short term consolidation or selling action.

In attach 2 annotated charts.

Best regards,

[Ramsburg]

Quick Update:

SPX started a consolidation as suggested by momentum analysis, selling off to the exact 1388 breakout point mentioned on the previous update (1388 was the intraday low for Wednesday session).
This drop didn't change the overall pattern yet, so the Up Swing is still in Play and we may look at it as normal consolidation process after a breakout.

It is important that the SPX holds above its EMA-50 or in a worst case scenario above 1370. Otherwise the current Up Swing may be compromised.

Here's an updated chart:

Regards,

[pinoleropuro]

pretty interesting video check it out!

[traderjbr]

Copy of my latest notes on QID,its possible its entered a 3rd of a 3rd in Elliott terms..

[traderjbr]

Within the 60min chart breakdown of the latest wave1? there's a small five wave sub-structure thats not easily seen on the daily in case you're wondering