TGB - Sector: Basic Materials---Industry: Copper

[Dracull]

Excelent post Melf!

[Melf Elf]

There are any number of ways to draw trendlines and patterns, and technicians don't always agree, which is fine, but what all technicians want is confirmation from the market that we're "following the program," and not deceiving ourselves by thinking that we've got something that we don't really have.

Is it a breakout, or isn't it?

That isn't always clear, especially when the numbers are a little off, like that 2.56...2.57...2.59 neckline (green) in the last post.  

Yes, that pattern broke out, even on a closing basis, but the breakout was negated by the closes back below it.

The market can be tricky, as we all know by now.  

Currently in TGB, we got a "break above" 2.90...2.90...2.89..but, not a close above it, and what else makes me question the breakout is the fact that the high of the May 15 gap down candle was 2.99.

The December 20 post-earnings high: 2.99 exactly.

Mighty suspicious, that we can't do better than that on earnings, as Buddjas1 suggested.

But, I also agree with David and Dracull about respecting the market and playing a breakout.

I'm just not convinced that TGB has broken out at all, given the fact that the market responded to 2.99 so far, not the 2.90...2.90...2.89 highs, if you see what I mean.

2.99 looks like the number to beat here.

Good luck, guys.  I'm in NXG, and would like to see BOTH stocks rally.  

Excelent post Melf!

Thanks, Dracull! 

[David Randolph]

I agree with Melf Elf's technical view on TGB (applaud), there wasn't any major, or let me say, significant, bullish breakout on TGB.

With help from his insight and chart I can now clearly see that the significant resistance the stock needs to close above is $2.99.

Good luck, guys.  I'm in NXG, and would like to see BOTH stocks rally.   

Good luck for NXG Melf Elf, but I think you'll agree that NXG also didn't make a major/significant bullish breakout. At least not yet.

There were some news after the close on Friday:

Taseko Announces Matching Bid for bcMetals That Pays Sooner

They're raising the bid for BcMetals shares from $1.05 to $1.10, but reducing the minimum tendering threshold from 66 2/3% to 50% plus one. I think this won't have a material effect on the stock on Tuesday's trading.

Fundamentally I have some new worries that I wish I had seen earlier. My fundamental service says the company had revenues of just $20 M this latest quarter. That would have been the worst quarter since the company restarted production in Q1 2005.

I've checked the figures and my fundamental service seems right. Although that's never mentioned on the company's press release, we can make the following calculus to get Q4's revenues:

Copper and molybdenum sales revenue of $161.9 million in fiscal 2006 was an increase from the $87.6 million achieved in the previous year.

But below there's a small note saying these are Canadian dollars, not US dollars. The current USD/CAD exchange rate is 0.86393, so fiscal 2006 revenues were 161.9*0.86393 = $139.87 M (USD, of course).

In Q3 I have $53 M in revenues, in Q2 $32 M and in Q1 $35 M. So Q4 revenues were $139.87 M - $53 M - $32 M - $35 M = $19.87 M.

So when they say the following:

For the fourth quarter of 2006, earnings were $19.1 million or $0.16 per share.

Again, this is Canadian Dollars, so Q4 Net Income was 19.1 million*0.86393 = $16.5 M USD. With just about $20 M in revenues it means almost all, if not all of the net income came from special, non recurrent items.

Also my EPS estimates are all wrong, because the press release was all in Canadian Dollars, not US Dollars.

I guess the market also didn't see the figures were in CAD and the special items, given the rally the stock had on what a deeper look says were awful results. I guess I was lucky.

Also, it looks clear now that I was wrong on my $copper macro outlook, $copper broke down below key long term support and is definitely bearish, as you can see on the graph below.

Given this analysis the proper thing to do is to SELL TGB at Tuesday's open.

[Melf Elf]

Good luck for NXG Melf Elf, but I think you'll agree that NXG also didn't make a major/significant bullish breakout. At least not yet.

Thanks, David.

NXG had a breakout this week of a 7-month Bullish Falling Wedge, but with copper being down, and with the stocks getting "Cramerized," as Cumulina puts it, by his call for a collapse in copper, NXG might get tainted with the same brush due to its exposure to copper, so it remains to be seen whether or not the breakout will be a major/signifcant one.

I'm going to stick with my trading plan that I outlined in the NXG folder on The Stock Picking Board.  I'll stop out my remaining 80% long position any day that it's set to close below 3.21-3.20 support, for an average 3-4% gain on the entire trade.

[ScottishTrader]

TGB update:  Developed a shallow ascending channel.  Recently tested the base.  Support @ 2.30.  Resistance at 2.53-2.55.  Looks like it might be making the head of a hird inverse H&S!!!  Last to have broken down, but if it bounces, it could test the top of the channel at 2.90.  So technical risk = 3.8%, reward could be 21.8%!  Nice ratio.

[Terliso]

On watch.
TGB still hanging at the support area.

[setravis]

Applaud Terliso.......  
Up 8.88% today, someone has lit the fire under this one.
We should be buying at this still extremely good value.

52wk Range: 1.93 - 4.25
Volume: 2,579,377
Avg Vol (3m): 747,362

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
8.00%above 13-day MA
8.89%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $116.49 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/

[Terliso]

Looking good now my friends

[Terliso]

Second gap is now closed, one more to go.

[usedcasting]

Got in a couple of weeks back, thanks guys.

uc.

[Terliso]

TGB still looking strong

[setravis]

Yes, a very nice move up.......
I Like it longer term,
short term Resistance at these levels, may pullback to the 13 day.

Support @ $3.44...3.22...2.93
Resistance @ $3.75...4.25

52wk Range: 1.93 - 4.25
Volume: 2,677,694
Avg Vol (3m): 950,989

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
9.56%above 13-day MA
20.07%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 
MACD is Bullish

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $116.49 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

Below are the 6 month and 3 year charts.......

[setravis]

Cup with Handle (continuation) Pattern on the long chart.98 composite ranking from IBD.
Last composite ranking from IBD 98.

Fundamentals, I would think...
Environmental permit for Prosperity was submitted, possibly some expect a quick turnaround on the decision. Also, there was news about Continental's exploratory drilling (TGB has a deal with Continental), copper prices are still holding, new trucks in the pit, Raymond James rated it a strong buy, and CEO has been buying. Hard to find a reason for this fundamentally to not go up. Not too far from the 52 week high. If it punches through that, it could get very interesting.
If there is a buyout offer, I would expect it to have to be a very sweet deal for the stockholders. Management is having far too much fun running this company to recommend a sale without it being very attractive. I don't expect an offer, nor do I want one, at least, not until the Prosperity permit ruling is in.

Copper prices going up or down tend to drive this stock. We seem to be in an upward copper price climb so this may explain the stock price.
I've seen in other companies wanting to buy it.
There are some South American plays for Canadian mining companies that may be giving this company a boost in price as well.


52wk Range: 1.96 - 3.90
Volume: 1,165,045
Avg Vol (3m): 1,107,230

Technicals
Last Price Quote is:
4.41%above 13-day MA
11.66%above 50-day MA
RS Rating: N/A 

Fundamentals
Key Data:
Market Cap (M): $116.49 
P/E Ratio: NA 
PEG Ratio: N/A 
Next Earnings: N/A
Last Analyst Rating: N/A

[TraderStar]

This stock seems to be "on sale" at the moment .. anyone else think it may be a good entry here?  Or is something going on that is driving it down?

[setravis]

Press Release Source: Taseko Mines Limited


Taseko Adds 128 Million Tons to Gibraltar Mineral Reserves
Thursday September 6, 12:40 pm ET


VANCOUVER, BRITISH COLUMBIA--(MARKET WIRE)--Sep 6, 2007 -- Taseko Mines Limited ("Taseko" or the "Company") (Toronto:TKO.TO - News) (AMEX:TGB - News) announces that the recently completed 2007 drilling program at its 100% owned Gibraltar Copper-Molybdenum Mine has resulted in an addition of 128 million tons to the mineral reserves. As a result, the total mineral reserves at Gibraltar have increased to 384 million tons at 0.310% copper and 0.009% molybdenum, containing 2.4 billion pounds of copper and 69 million pounds of molybdenum.

 
In addition to the 384 million tons of proven and probable reserves, there are more than 500 million tons of measured and indicated resources at a similar grade.

The Gibraltar concentrator is undergoing a major 2-phase expansion which will be complete by the end of 2008. The increase in the mineable tonnage will allow the expanded milling operations to be maintained at 55,000 tons per day for 17 years, averaging 115 million pounds of copper and 1.4 million pounds of molybdenum per year, which will make Gibraltar the second largest open pit copper mine in Canada.

Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO of Taseko, commented, "These new mineral reserves plus the more than 500 million tons of measured and indicated resources, in combination with the nearly complete mill expansion, puts Taseko at the forefront of Canadian mining companies." Mr. Hallbauer continued, "The reserves and resources at Gibraltar and the one billion tonnes of reserves and resources at the Company's Prosperity Gold-Copper Project1 contain 11.0 billion pounds of copper, all located in the mining-friendly jurisdiction of British Columbia, creating vast opportunities for the Company and setting Taseko apart from its peers."

The mineral resource and reserve estimations were completed by Gibraltar mine staff under the supervision of Ian S. Thompson, P.Eng., Superintendent of Engineering and a Qualified Person under National Instrument 43-101. Mr Thompson has verified the methods used to determine grade and tonnage in the geological model, reviewed the long range mine plan, and directed the updated economic evaluation. The estimates used long term metal prices of US$1.50/lb for copper and US$10.00/lb for molybdenum and a foreign exchange of C$0.80 per US dollar. Mr Thompson has reviewed this release. A technical report will be filed on www.sedar.com.

For further details on Taseko and its properties, please visit the Company's website at www.tasekomines.com or contact Investor Services at (604) 684-6365 or within North America at 1-800-667-2114.

Russell Hallbauer, President and CEO

Forward Looking Statements

This release includes certain statements that may be deemed "forward-looking statements". All statements in this release, other than statements of historical facts, that address future production, reserve potential, exploration drilling, exploitation activities and events or developments that the Company expects are forward-looking statements. Although the Company believes the expectations expressed in such forward-looking statements are based on reasonable assumptions, such statements are not guarantees of future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those in forward-looking statements include market prices, exploitation and exploration successes, lack of continuity of mineralization, continued availability of capital and financing, and general economic, market or business conditions. Investors are cautioned that any such statements are not guarantees of future performance and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. For more information on the Company, Investors should review the Company's annual Form 20-F filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission or the Company's home jurisdiction filings at www.sedar.com.

Information for US Persons Concerning Estimates of Measured and Indicated Resources

This news release also uses the terms 'measured resources' and 'indicated resources'. Taseko Mines Limited advises investors that although these terms are recognized and required by Canadian regulations (under National Instrument 43-101 Standards of Disclosure for Mineral Projects), the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission does not recognize them. Investors are cautioned not to assume that any part or all of the mineral deposits in these categories will ever be converted into reserves.

No regulatory authority has approved or disapproved the information contained in this news release.

Contact:
     Contacts:
     Taseko Mines Limited
     Shawn Wallace
     Investor Services
     (604) 684-6365 or Toll Free : 1-800-667-2114
     (604) 684-8092 (FAX)
     Website: http://www.tasekomines.com
     
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