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CMTP.OB)

Started by David Randolph, January 09, 2006, 08:38:35 AM

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Loffigus

I think that everyone needs to plan their own exit strategy when they don't agree with the 3SOF strategy.  I know we pay for a service, but that does not mean we do not have a choice on when to sell -- It is possible to outperform 3SOF and to underperform 3SOF.  It all depends on how closely you follow their plan.  For example, I bought 12% of my portfolio in CHID and the rest of my positions were 6.66%, so the past few days I have seen a steeper decline in my value than the 3SOF portfolio has seen.   I admit, I have a hard time following the 3SOF recommendations to the letter, so I have adopted a new strategy for my trading in the coming weeks. I always hold the same stocks in the 3SOF portfolio, but I develop my own exit strategies that don't always match the 3SOF strategy.

1)  I will always take 50% off the table when I have a profit of 30% or more.  (you can always rebuy your full position back on a new breakout or on a pullback if you want to)
2)  When you sell a full position, Rebuy the position only on a pullback to a support (or near) level.
3)  Give OTCBB stocks at least 20% wiggle room.
4)  Set trailing stops when your profit reaches excessive amounts.
5)  Instead of placing a STOP order, I place a trailing stop of 1% at the stop level.  That way, if 3SOF gets stopped out, but the price recovers (like WDPT did today), You may get out at a better price.  The risk is you may lose 1% more.  In any case, I will usually sell it by the end of day.  


netfishmademerich

Quote from: winner919 on May 16, 2006, 05:12:03 PM
I would partially agree with Locus.

Winner you must mean "Lucas".

winner919

yes, net. I mean Lucas. sorry for the error.

winner

Maestro

[quote author=Loffigus link=topic=4246.msg62276#msg62276
5)  Instead of placing a STOP order, I place a trailing stop of 1% at the stop level.  That way, if 3SOF gets stopped out, but the price recovers (like WDPT did today), You may get out at a better price.  The risk is you may lose 1% more.  In any case, I will usually sell it by the end of day. 
Quote

I find your strategy interesting, but do not quite understand point 5, the part that goes "trailing stop of 1% at the stop level... risk is you may lose 1% more". How would this work on this hypothetical example:

Bought at $10.00
Yesterday's close: $11.46
Today, 3SOF recommends stop of $9.90
What trailing stop do you place?

Loffigus

Hi Maestro,
Let me explain in more detail:

Quote from: Maestro on May 17, 2006, 06:56:24 AM
[quote author=Loffigus link=topic=4246.msg62276#msg62276
5)  Instead of placing a STOP order, I place a trailing stop of 1% at the stop level.  That way, if 3SOF gets stopped out, but the price recovers (like WDPT did today), You may get out at a better price.  The risk is you may lose 1% more.  In any case, I will usually sell it by the end of day. 
Quote

I find your strategy interesting, but do not quite understand point 5, the part that goes "trailing stop of 1% at the stop level... risk is you may lose 1% more". How would this work on this hypothetical example:

Bought at $10.00
Yesterday's close: $11.46
Today, 3SOF recommends stop of $9.90
What trailing stop do you place?


It is only possible for me to do this because I have access to a computer during the day, so I can monitor my portfolio regulary.  What I do is this:
-- when the price of the stock hits the 3SOF stop price (in your example, $9.90) then I place a trailing stop at that point that trails the market by 1% (sometimes 2%).  So if I place it at $9.90, that gives the stock about 10 cents room to wiggle.  If the price drops to around $9.80, it sells, but if the price climbs I may end up getting out at 10.00, $10.15, $10.25 -- etc...  In any case, I will sell it on the same day as 3SOF if my trailing stop was not triggered.

I used this strategy on the following stocks:
IO - my exit was $10.15, 3SOF exit was $9.90 (outperform by 2.25%)
CRUS - my exit was $9.10, 3SOF exit was $8.95 (outperform by 1.67%)
IMOS - my exit was $7.13, 3SOF exit was $7.20  (underperform by 1%)
TOMO - my exit was $24.55, 3SOF exit was $24.80 (underperform by 1%)
DEIX - my exit $16.15, 3SOF exit was $15.88 (outperform by 1.7%)

So, so far the strategy has paid off.   I don't like the idea of dead stops if I can help it, because often when a stock drops to a new low, it will rally temporarily -- the trailing stop lets you take advantage of that rally.

la-onda


beroznikmal

So I guess this is a good thing right... Im sure he does not want to losse anymore money and try his best to rais the PPS :o
Up and down it goes, where it ends nobody knows....Or do we.....;)

Maestro

Quote from: Loffigus on May 17, 2006, 10:20:10 AM
Let me explain in more detail:...

Thank you, Loffigus. Now I got it.

tokyopua

CHID rallying a bit now, hope it lasts.  Any stock that can close green today is likely a keeper.  If only IVHG and GV would do the same, I will have escaped this crazy day relatively unhurt because I sold about half my positions near the open.  Should have sold them 5 days ago, but I never would have guessed the market would slide so far so fast?  ??? :o :-[
Chance favors the prepared mind

beroznikmal

I think GIGM CHID AND IIP ARE GOOD....
GIGM is GREEN
CHID IS GREEN
and IIP did nt shift that much the last 4 days....

Cheers..
B
Up and down it goes, where it ends nobody knows....Or do we.....;)

Ramsburg

#235
Thanks for all your inputs ;)

Update:
After this ugly sell off, CHID may have found a base, the last 3 candles had higher lows above $0.75 and CHID is now consolidating in the $0.80's.
From a Fundamental point of view we have strong expectations about CHID like stated before and we rate it as a completely under value stock. And from a Technical perspective, even with this big sell, CHID is still holding a bullish pattern with consecutive higher lows and highs.

A little quote from David Randolph in OTCBBcoverage.com yesterday:
http://www.otcbbcoverage.com/stocks/index.php?topic=12.msg507#msg507
QuoteA form 4 just came out saying the CEO of the company bought 530,000 shares, on May $0.12, at an average price of $0.965. She bought $511,450 at a price higher than the current price, why shouldn't you buy now?

You know more than her about the company's prospects? Of course not.

I still rate CHID as the best !

Trading Plan:
Hold CHID

Best regards,
Frederick Ramsburg
www.3stocksonfire.org

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voova99



The words like these --

...I intend to purchase up to 1 million shares of the company in the open market by June 20. I have already begun to buy shares," Sun said.

isn't serious for  respectable management


tokyopua

Quote from: voova99 on May 18, 2006, 04:16:16 AM


The words like these --

...I intend to purchase up to 1 million shares of the company in the open market by June 20. I have already begun to buy shares," Sun said.

isn't serious for  respectable management



Well, he followed it up by buying at least half that, so it seems he has been sticking to his word.
Chance favors the prepared mind

alien41

I may be wrong but I believe the person purchasing these shares is a woman.  Please let me know if I am wrong.  After some thought I am assuming that the acquisitions will occur after June 20.  I do not think she wants to pay more than is necessary for her shares.  I believe by the end of the summer those still holding should see significant increase in their share value if all goes as planned.

GLTA......Alien   

beroznikmal

Up and down it goes, where it ends nobody knows....Or do we.....;)