Canadian stock picks

[eagerlearner]

Hi fellow 3SOFers! 
I noticed there are quite a few canadian investors here, and some knowledgeable members such as Michael (yes! the top foundamentalist!) invest in canadian stocks, so maybe we can start a thread for canada.
What do u think of the recent run? how long will it last?
i will start by disclosing all my holdings: 
I am holding a basket of income trusts, such as, PWT.UN , PD.UN, TDG.UN, PMT.UN, BFC.UN, ARF.UN, PGX.UN, FET.UN, SQP.UN , YLO.UN.  They pay 7%- 12% dividend, and have reasonable growth too.   Income trusts should be quite stable now after the election.
Also i hold some big cap names such as PCA (petro canada, very undervalued), ECA, TD.
and some small names in UTS, IE, MSV.V, RFM.V, and bought TKO.V on david's recommendation too.(thx david!)

What are u holding? anything u want to buy?
Any opinions are welcome!
Lets make some money in the great white north !

Cheers! 

[eagerlearner]

UBS ups PCA.TO price for 20% , up C$2 + so far today.
UTS.TO up almost 10% today without news, volume over 3mil, i think some fund managers are loading up, as i have seen more than 1 manager recommend it on TV. I am looking to unload half at $8, with 50% profit
ARF.UN and PWT.UN increased distribution last week.
GLTA 

[eagerlearner]

holy crap! over 250 pts dropping like a rock. biggest drop since who knows when.
luckily sold my biggest position in ECA yesterday at 55 , bought it back today at 51.6 .    chart shows multiple support around 51.5-51.7.
it should recover a bit towards the end of the day.
wish i sold them all yesterday .. lol ... my portfolio is down more than 1% today.

Hoping better days ahead!

[eagerlearner]

Just wanted to update my TSX portfolio on this nice saturday afternoon while watching Raptors battling Nets. I love this game! Go raptors!  are there any hoops fans out there?

Feb was a rough month, with energy selling off and material slowed down. TSX gave back half of the gain from Jan, altho still up over 4%. I have taken profit on some on my energy holdings. My quick buying back of ECA after selling was silly. it tanked to near $45 before bouncing back last week. That was the second time i made that mistake on the same stock (last time i sold at 64, buying back at 60 2 days after , only to see it drop to 54). I have caught the short term top on it pretty well but keep missing the bottm terribly. But i did sell half when it spiked to 52 , making peanuts (bot 51.6, lol). So the other half of my position is underwater.   I tend to buy back too quick after selling the big winners, made the mistake on SVA and GLIF too. I have told myself not to repeat it again!

Anyway. during the last month, i sold:
TDG.UN@ 18.2 (bot@ 15.7)
PWT.UN@ 42.71 (bot@34)
[email protected] (bot@ 17.1)
[email protected] (bot@15)
[email protected]([email protected])

and i bought:
PD.UN@36  (added to my position)
IE @2.45
EZM @1.61 (on David's recommendation, thx)
TD@ 62.8 (added to full position)
MTL.UN@30
[email protected]
SW @14.65
NNO @4.65 (on David again)

as of Mar3, ECA FET.UN PMT.UN PD.UN SW are underwater, the rest are up.  I lightened my weighting on energy, and added to financial and material to rebalance. I have about 20% cash , and will look to add to energy after the shoulder season, as i believe it's still in long term bull market. Meanwhile, i am happy with the about 1% fat checks all those .UN send me every month.

Good luck to all , have a good weekend!

p.s. damn the raptors wasted the 10 points lead again now losing in OT ! 

[ELR]

hey eager,

glad to see somebody here on 3SOF is into CN energy stocks !    I have been holding PVX for over a year. bought in @ 7.70 but dumped it thinking it wasn't going anywhere?  got back in for an avg of 9.80/s (usd) and love the dividend !

are you CN resident or US ? the CN Royalty Trusts only require US residents to pay 15% of the dividend as tax w/balance as clear cash !  This is the greatest thing since sliced bread!!

I was thinking of selling out my PVX and buying Frontline (freighter/shipping company) instead, it is paying > 16% in a similar setup as the CN Gas Royalty Trusts.  It has just had a pull back in price and about right to get in.  Symbol is FRO.

Tell me about UTS, all I know is the hype/pump from T. Smith on CHangewave that it could potentially go to $20/share US ?  He reco'd it at ~ $4 and it did hit ~$8 recently but has pullled back.  Any feel for UTS and how far you think it can go ?

I also am holding Apex Resources, do you know of any progress they are making on their pipeline work?

thanks,

elr

[mcolin]

What do you all think about Carmanah Technologies (CMH.TO)? It's a great solar energy company that's had a solid upward trend since it started. Seems like a good long-term play, so I have it in my IRA.

Thanks.

Michael

[eagerlearner]

Hello ELR & Michael ,
Thanks for your replies!

Tell me about UTS, all I know is the hype/pump from T. Smith on CHangewave that it could potentially go to $20/share US ?  He reco'd it at ~ $4 and it did hit ~$8 recently but has pullled back.  Any feel for UTS and how far you think it can go ?

UTS is a oil sand play in progress. Its Fort Hills Project has a mining development at the site to produce up to 190,000 barrels per day of bitumen. It's expected to achieve a minimum of 50,000 barrels per day of bitumen production by mid 2009. They have top notch partners in Petro Canada and Teck Cominco, things have been progessing on schedule. It's quite a take out target too due to its small cap and presence in oil sand.
I got in quite late at 5.5 in January.  There is lots of buying support around 6 with 50ma at 6.09,  i will add some more  if it gets there for trading purpose, and take profit near 7.5. But with the weakness in crude oil i think it may need some catalyst to break thru 8 in the short term.  Its quite volatile and trade closely with the movement of crude oil. UTS is only around 2% of my portforlio .. lol
Yes i am a CN resident , and that's why i own so many royalty trusts, 8%-12% dividend with decent price appreciation, isnt it a great thing!
I am sorry i dont know much about Apex Resources or  Carmanah Technologies , but i will definitely keep an eye out. Thanks for bringing them up!

OK, TSX has pulled back last week with the weakness in energy and precious metals, but it got a nice bounce at 50ma on thursday. i got a feeling it can break that 12k mark again the coming 2 weeks.
Petro Canada had bad news on friday. oil production at its Terra Nova oil project had been cut because of mechanical and equipment issues and a six-day unscheduled shutdown of a floating platform. Overall production will be cut around 10% in Q1 2006 and a smaller cut in Q2. I think PCA will underperform compared to other big oil in the short term. and crude oil may trade sideway for a while. So i sold the other half of my PCA at 51.75 ([email protected] last OCT). damn wish i sold a week before above 55 .
FEL.UN and SQP.UN have pulled back near support, i have limit order in FEL.UN@14 and [email protected].  and i am hoping CP.TO ( Canadian Pacific Railway) to pull back a little bit so i can buy around 56.   

Good luck all!

[snowcat]

Re: UTS

Still being pumped by several newsletters - like Mike Schaeffer's Pure Energy.  Several of the Canadian co can be bought on the pink sheets also in the US - and you get the Canadian shares.

CWPC.ob which trades in the US is hitting a new high today - it is an oil sands company.  These two stocks have held up well despite the rrecent fall in oil prices.

As you know, getting the oil out of the frozen oil sands is a very costly process and is only economical if the price of oil remains high.

I also own PCE.v which has been falling like a stone.  I got this one from Mike Schaeffer but only put lunch $ in it.  His other pix were BOB.v, ARS.v and SCU.

I will check out the other stuff posted here.

There is a UTS thread also with a lot of useful info.

Canada: It's not just the USA's attic!

[hotpprs]

Hello everyone,
Just noticed this thread, and because I invested in SOLV-EX (oil sands company,now defunct)years ago, it caught my attention.
I lost thousands on SOLV-EX, but I made it back plus more on Russian stocks. I have stayed away from Canadian stocks because of my bad experience, even though I think SOLV-EX was an American security, not really sure now where they were incorporated.

Anyway, as we all know, Canada is hot again due to the global energy crisis. The question is, will there be some pullback, and should I wait until then to enter this bull market?

What I am looking at for the future is, oil sands and uranium. I know of Suncor,(boy do I wish I invested in that instead of SOLV-EX), but I'm not sure when to get into that.
The other stock I have been researching for uranium is, UrAsia Mining which is UUU.V or UAEYF.PK, which looks very interesting. Even though it has had a fast run up, it looks like it has very big long term potential. They have been doing a lot of investing, and have a mining  investment in Kazakhstan, which looks to be one of the next "new" major sources of energy after the peak of the legacy oil fields of the 20th century.
Does anyone know of UrAsia Mining, and can make any knowledgable recommendations when to enter, and if it is a relatively safe investment?
Thanks,
Mike

[echo]

take a look at CIX. soon to be convertd to an income trust.

did you mention SPF? excellent diviend

SHN.UN (all nat gas, which has bottomed so it should be a good play)

CNI (not an income trust, but a good stock)

PWI

There's more but these are real good.

[echo]

Another note on Canadian income trusts:

Imo, the most important factor is the payout ratio. Any stock with a payout ratio below 80% is a really good stock. Under 70% is absolutely amazing. In the 80ies is still good, but I would stay away from anything in the 90ies or higher.

Me

[DJPlayer]

I've personally owned PGH for approximately 6 months.  It finally took a turn for the best.  Gained approx 15% in value and approx 8% in dividends so far (6 month gain).  unfortunately the dividends are from canada though.. 

I decided to research some of the charts and financials and saw PWI.  Things look very decent for them especially being their sector has a steady growth estimate for the next 1yr+

opinions?

[stockhunter]

great stock; BUT, if you want PWI buy SHN.UN instead, as primewest is set to purchase shining bank in an all stock deal which closes next month and you'll get more stock for your money. 

Other great trusts which are EXCELLENT ARE: Harvest energy trust and Canetic Resources. 

I own all of these stocks