QDEL

[David Randolph]

QDEL looks to be a cheap stock experiencing fast revenue and profit growth. The company reported, on February 15th, net earnings per share of $0.28. If we annualize this we get $1.12 in annual profits, so the earnings multiple, without any growth factored in, is $11.24/$1.12 = 10.

Quidel 4Q Earnings, Revenue Increase

Technically, as you can see on the chart below, yesterday there was a bullish technical signal, with the 50 day moving average being left behind. Also, a symmetrical triangle was broken on the upside, as volume increased.

Everything suggests QDEL will test its former highs above $15.

I'll buy QDEL around today open for the Stocks on Fire Portfolio, 6.66% of capital as usual.

[la-onda]

update:
QDEL: Caris & Co Cuts to Above Average from Buy; Analyst Notes

Thursday , February 16, 2006 10:07 ET

Issuer: Quidel Corporation (NasdaqNM: QDEL)
Analyst Firm:  Caris & Company
Ratings Action: DOWNGRADE
Current Rating: Above Average (from Buy)
Analyst Comments: The firm notes that QDEL 4Q05 results top their estimates with revenues of $34.8 million and 28c EPS versus their forecast for $33.5 million and 22c. Results also bested FC consensus estimates of $33.3 million and 23c EPS. They note few near term catalysts as the stock's seasonal rough patch is entered and its recent lift off a depressed bottom mitigates enthusiasm on the shares.

&

Quidel Expands Influenza Testing in European Community; German School System and French Soccer Team Adopt the QuickVue(R) Influenza A+B Test

Tuesday , February 21, 2006 07:00 ET

SAN DIEGO, Feb 21, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Quidel Corporation (Nasdaq:QDEL), a leading provider of rapid point-of-care diagnostic tests, announced today, the adoption of the QuickVue Influenza A+B test in an Influenza Prevention Program for students enrolled at all Nymphenburger Schools throughout Munich, Germany, as well as by the Olympique Lyonnais, a member of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA).

Organized in Germany, by Professor Georg Vogel, MD, a well known expert in the field on influenza, and the Health Club of Nymphenburger, the school program is designed to educate students and their families as to the importance of early detection of influenza. As to the objective of the program, Dr. Vogel said, "Schools, like other crowded places, are perfect breeding grounds for the influenza virus. By employing a rapid test, we can isolate and treat students, their family as needed, and thereby prevent the spread of this serious disease." Prof. Vogel is a physician of internal medicine, gastroenterology/nephrology in Munich, Germany and a distinguished expert in Germany in the field of acute respiratory illnesses. Added Mr. Nessler, Diplom teacher for sports at the Nymphenburger Schools, "Prof. Vogel impressed upon us the importance of deploying the QuickVue Influenza test with the main goal of insuring the health and well being of our student population."
Argene, Quidel's French distributor for their rapid diagnostic tests, secured adoption of the QuickVue Influenza A+B test by Olympique Lyonnais, the number one ranked team in the Group F competition in the European League. The test, which provides test results to team physicians in 10 minutes or less, assists in managing possible influenza outbreaks during the season. "We were approached by the team during a sales call to their club headquarters where we were interested in their risk to influenza-like illnesses during the season," said Pascal Margry, Distributions Manager of Argene, which is located in Varilhes, France. "They were enthusiastic to utilize the test because when one player comes down with influenza, there is a likelihood that the rest of the team may be affected as well." Concern over the overall management of influenza among teams, schools and workgroups has been accentuated this season. "The use of our influenza test in these European venues further validates the QuickVue Influenza A+B test," said Caren Mason, president and CEO of Quidel Corporation. "We are proud of both the Nymphenburger Schools' and Olympique Lyonnais' choice of our test which, combined with the work of Dr. Vogel and other key opinion leaders in France, Japan and the U.S., will continue to educate the worldwide audience as to the critical role testing has in the management of the influenza virus," continued Mason.

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QDEL: Short Interest DN 4.7% to 1.3M in Feb 2006

Monday , February 27, 2006 16:27 ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Quidel Corporation (NasdaqNM: QDEL) DECREASED 4.7% to 1,326,629 shares for the month ended mid-February, 2006.

SYMBOL       JANUARY        FEBRUARY          CHANGE       %CHANGE    DAYS/COVER
--------   -------------   -------------   -------------  ------------  ----------
QDEL           1,391,469       1,326,629         -64,840        -4.66%           3
Based on QDEL's 20-day average daily share volume of 517,600, it would require approximately 3 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

[David Randolph]

Yes, that analyst is right la-onda, I do see some seasonality in QDEL's revenues, so probably my 2006 estimate is off the mark. But management says:

«"We are very pleased with our strong finish to a very strong year for our Company. We delivered substantially improved revenue and earnings from continuing operations, exclusive of litigation settlement, for the fourth quarter and full year 2005 and continued to capitalize on the investments and meet the imperatives outlined for market leadership in rapid diagnostic tests at the point of care in infectious disease and reproductive health. We will continue to invest in manufacturing, research and development and marketing, all of which establish the foundation for further growth and market leadership. In 2006, we expect continued growth from our core product lines and anticipate a strong market entry for our iFOBT test, launched in January of 2006, which aids in the detection of colon cancer. In addition, we anticipate the launch of our new test for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) to be available for the 2006/2007 cold and flu season" said Caren Mason, President and CEO.»

I'll buy it anyway, even if it is just based on the chart. I can't have all the confirmations in place to act. Performance calls for flexibility, and flexibility calls for one not knowing too much about the companies he invests. People buying with short term eyes don't know much either, although they certainly move prices.

Thanks for posting some news la-onda, they complement the initial posts 

[ScottishTrader]

I like QDEL and kicked myself for having never bought it in the first round of bird flu frenzy - as you can see it mad a nice double from the beginning of september.  Actually, saying that it was a 4-bagger since last may 

But right now I would be a little careful, and would like to see a bit more confirmation before buying the breakout.  $11.50 looks to be key resistance, and $10.50-60 should provide solid support.  Today's action suggests it may want to pull back a bit more before moving forward, possibly testing this support area again.  I think that a low buy near this support or a buy on a break of 11.50 may represent a good play for those who are not in yet.

Just my thoughts

[David Randolph]

I like QDEL and kicked myself for having never bought it in the first round of bird flu frenzy - as you can see it mad a nice double from the beginning of september.  Actually, saying that it was a 4-bagger since last may 

But right now I would be a little careful, and would like to see a bit more confirmation before buying the breakout.  $11.50 looks to be key resistance, and $10.50-60 should provide solid support.  Today's action suggests it may want to pull back a bit more before moving forward, possibly testing this support area again.  I think that a low buy near this support or a buy on a break of 11.50 may represent a good play for those who are not in yet.

Just my thoughts

Thanks for your thoughts ScottishTrader 

Yes, I can see the resistance you're talking about, specifically at $11.43. Yesterday's pullback was encouraging, on low volume and without much technical damage to the previous strong white candle.

I think we can break $11.43 still during this week. We'll see, in the meantime, I'll continue holding QDEL.

[ScottishTrader]

well it looks like 11.55 was today's resistance, and a lovely little ascending triangle formed on the 5min chart.  True to my word, I bought on the break of this rersistance, at 11.58. 

Now, lets rock n roll

[David Randolph]

Yes, I can see the resistance you're talking about, specifically at $11.43. Yesterday's pullback was encouraging, on low volume and without much technical damage to the previous strong white candle.

I think we can break $11.43 still during this week. We'll see, in the meantime, I'll continue holding QDEL.

The stock indeed broke out above $11.43 and ...

well it looks like 11.55 was today's resistance, and a lovely little ascending triangle formed on the 5min chart. True to my word, I bought on the break of this rersistance, at 11.58.

Now, lets rock n roll

... ScottishTrader bought it 

The bull trend will probably continue. I'll keep on holding QDEL.

[defenderyou]

David - I managed to load up on prices between 11.10 and 11.21, avg 11.16. This is below your support of 11.43; Are you at all concerned that we have moved a lot lower since Friday and why? Personally I was trying to buy at 10.97 and then at 11.05 but had to chase a bit. I think the bounce off of 11 is quite constructive and is the main reason why I bought. I guess I expect a retest of 11, and then higher on up to $12. DO you agree?

[ScottishTrader]

I hate to say it, but I sold out this morning - It was acting well before the bell but tanked and then tanked again below what should have been support around 11.43.  This could be a temporary setback, but I was happy to take a small loss and may re-enter if $11 holds, and the uptrend resumes.

Good luck to all holding

[defenderyou]

Started out fine but could not get though that 11.43 with any conviction; did not sell - glad to see that it maintained the 11.80 area; worried about a potential drop to $10. Will see if it holds or decides to fill in the gap down to 10.23? david what are you doing?

[David Randolph]

Started out fine but could not get though that 11.43 with any conviction; did not sell - glad to see that it maintained the 11.80 area; worried about a potential drop to $10. Will see if it holds or decides to fill in the gap down to 10.23? david what are you doing?

I'm holding. There's support at $10.63 and around 10. The trend is turning bullish as you can see by the 50 day moving average.

I'll continue holding QDEL.

[eliteG]

QDEL - another avian flu related stock doing fantastic  (they make diagnostic products  ).  QDEL made a strong move today.. it even tried to close above 12 but rejected those levels.. for now    We have a great place for a stop if things go sour and thats right under the support QDEL recently recieved.

We will hold QDEL unless it hits our stop @ 10.49.

[eliteG]

update QDEL:

Its time to get aggressive on QDEL.  I am noticing potential weakness all-around in the market  and so I am going to play QDEL very tightly as our previous stop seems too loose.  This will be a 2-part stop.  One for a close and one beneath it in-case it decided to get very bearish intra-day.  We must always be prepared and yet at the same time QDEL has enough room to show-off if it wants to. 

Recent news that may boost QDEL: 

Quidel Corporation Announces Strategic Business Partnership with Church & Dwight Co., Inc.
Thursday March 16, 7:00 am ET
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/060316/20060316005184.html?.v=1

We will sell QDEL if it closes below 11.10 or if it hits our stop of 10.97.

[eliteG]

update QDEL:

QDEL has been moving very nice!  Today the stock had some rejection of higher prices so we are moving our exit a bit higher just in-case.  I am hoping to sell QDEL much higher. 

We will hold QDEL but sell if it is set to close below 11.75.

[eliteG]

update QDEL:

QDEL is consolidating high up in this price rise.  Looking for it to bounce as it approaches its strong ascending trendline.  Stop moves slightly higher to protect profits.

We will hold QDEL unless it closes below 12.