CYBS

Ramsburg · March 20, 2006, 12:15:59 AM

CyberSource Corp. (CYBS)
CyberSource Corporation provides electronic payment and risk management solutions to organizations that process orders for goods and services over the Internet (...)
Website: http://www.cybersource.com/

This is mainly a technical pick for short term position trading:

Technical Analysis:

Short Term:
CYBS showed up on our «radar» last week upon the breakout of an important technical reference: $9.20. Volume has been above average, and $9.20 was the top of what we can consider to be an ascending triangle; the target of this pattern is $10.62 short term.
$9.20 was retested during Friday's session giving some consolidation to this chart.
At $8.60 there is another support, this time the ascending short term trend line.

Short Term Chart:

Mid Term:
The short term move was also a mid term breakout, this time $9.35 was the mark, and this gives another dimension on what we can expect from this chart. CYBS has been very technical during the last 2 years, so this kind of breakouts should be considered valid, and solid, especially when the volume agrees.

Mid Term Chart:

Long Term:
Since 2001, CYBS is riding a Bull, an ascending channel can be spotted here, and the last touch was on the downside...

Long Term Chart:

Fundamentals:
I'm not a Fundamental Trader, and fundamentals will not matter much on this trade, since this is motivated mainly because of the technical outlook. But CYBS seems to have some good figures when looking to the EPS and Revenues charts:

Earnings Trend:

Revenues Trend:

The Cramer situation:
Cramer from TheStreet.com has included CYBS on a list of stocks where he's bearish:
This article went out after the market closed on Friday, and it will probably affect CYBS price during Monday Morning.
I'm not sure how much is this going to affect CYBS, so we are not buying at the open as usual.

Trading Plan:
We are going to buy CYBS Monday morning (not at the open), placing a buy order below $9.20, if this order doesn't get filled till 12:00 will buy CYBS at a maximum price of $9.65.
Our stop price for this trade will be $8.50 if printed.

My best regards !

.

stocky · March 20, 2006, 01:15:19 AM

Good pick and strategy, infact buying when the stock has retraced to recent break out is a prudent way that ensures some safety of trade.

mexirafa · March 20, 2006, 10:02:13 AM

Hello,

Sorry for the question, I did not get the message clearly.

If CYBS does not meet our morning target (below 9.20), does that mean we still buy it at at any price as long as it does not exceed 9.65?

Thanks,
Rafael

eliteG · March 20, 2006, 10:04:44 AM

Quote from: mexirafa on March 20, 2006, 10:02:13 AM
Hello,

Sorry for the question, I did not get the message clearly.

If CYBS does not meet our morning target (below 9.20), does that mean we still buy it at at any price as long as it does not exceed 9.65?

Thanks,
Rafael

Exactly Rafael

.. man we were close this morning.. still a chance

KCScott · March 20, 2006, 10:37:12 AM

Hey Gil,

What are you guys going to do with the Pennies on Fire?

Are you going to bring them in here as previosuly described?

If so which and when?

Also, what did you decide as the maximum # of stocks in 3SOF - is it still 15?

Thanks -

Scott in KC

eliteG · March 20, 2006, 10:42:31 AM

Quote from: KCScott on March 20, 2006, 10:37:12 AM
Hey Gil,

What are you guys going to do with the Pennies on Fire?

Are you going to bring them in here as previosuly described?

If so which and when?

Also, what did you decide as the maximum # of stocks in 3SOF - is it still 15?

Thanks -

Scott in KC

Hey Scott, Pennies on Fire will not have new picks since both 3SOF and S3OV portfolios now have pennies. This means that when the current 3SOP portfolio plays are extinguished so will the portfolio. Nothing else really changed. The 3SOF formula is rock solid. 15 stocks to minimize risk.

Ramsburg · March 21, 2006, 02:07:02 AM

Unfortunately our plan to catch the morning lows has failed by a few ticks, and we had to buy CYBS higher.

We believe $9.20 will continue to act as a short term support, and we expect CYBS to have a strong positive reaction at any moment.

Our trading plan will be the same for now: Hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60

Regards,

Loffigus · March 21, 2006, 03:07:01 PM

Anybony have any thoughts about the crazy up and down movement of CYBS?

Ramsburg · March 21, 2006, 09:47:51 PM

Quote from: Loffigus on March 21, 2006, 03:07:01 PM
Anybony have any thoughts about the crazy up and down movement of CYBS?

Hi Loffigus,

I think this fast volatility is a normal behaviour after a breakout and a throwback...

CYBS closed 2 ticks below the $9.20 support level, under low volume. The Nasdaq session didn't help much, with a lot of «blood» going on.

Some news out today:
CyberSource and Visa Canada Bring Advanced eCommerce Fraud Detection System to Canadian Merchants

CYBS is on the ex-breakout zone, we expect some support here, even if the Nasdaq continues to slope down for the next few days, we think our trading plan will give sufficient room for CYBS to go back in action.

Holding CYBS with a stop @ $8.60

Ramsburg · March 22, 2006, 08:48:33 PM

A good reaction on the support zone today ($9.00/$9.20), followed by a recovery into positive territory and a close on the high of the day. The only thing missing was high volume...

No changes on our trading plan for now, we'll continue to hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60. Our first target for this trade would be $10.62, but we are not setting any selling order yet.

Best regards,

gharknes · March 26, 2006, 05:13:20 AM

Hi Guys, I'm sort of new here and as such I am a little late for getting into most of the positions here, although as a newbie I have a suggestion, I cannot alway be by my PC but I always have email with me, it is difficult to determine which positions are new and those that are old, the main thread here does not show the oiginal posting date so the only way to tell how old or new a position is is to count the replies on each thread. Here is a suggestion

1. Record original post date and when 3sof took a position
2. Send out an email alert to all members that 3sof is about to take a position or sell a position in a stock.

On topic here, it seems I may be too late to get into CYBS unless it pulls back below $9.30......I missed the boat

Ramsburg · March 26, 2006, 07:43:37 PM

Quote from: gharknes on March 26, 2006, 05:13:20 AM
Hi Guys, I'm sort of new here and as such I am a little late for getting into most of the positions here, although as a newbie I have a suggestion, I cannot alway be by my PC but I always have email with me, it is difficult to determine which positions are new and those that are old, the main thread here does not show the oiginal posting date so the only way to tell how old or new a position is is to count the replies on each thread. Here is a suggestion

1. Record original post date and when 3sof took a position
2. Send out an email alert to all members that 3sof is about to take a position or sell a position in a stock.

On topic here, it seems I may be too late to get into CYBS unless it pulls back below $9.30......I missed the boat

Hi gharknes,

Thanks for your post, let me clarify you for better browsing our service:
- In this topic (right on the first post) you can see the time / date of the post:
Buying CYBS in the morning !
« on: 20 March 2006, 00h15m »
- You can also check the portfolio pages, in this case the «3Stocks On Fire» portfolio page, on the left menu (http://www.3stocksonfire.org/3stocksonfire.php), there you can see all our current holdings, along with our entry prices and dates.

About the email alert, everyday we send a Newsletter to all our subscribers, with instructions on every position we hold, and everytime we are going to buy a new pick. This email is sent always before market action, and they also include stop prices, etc.

Are you receiving this daily email ? (if not, please send me an email to [email protected])

best regards

Ramsburg · March 26, 2006, 07:54:53 PM

3 white candles for CYBS, after the retest on the support level at $9.00/$9.20. Volume is not impressive although the stock is near the highs, and may be ready for another breakout.
We have no reasons to discredit our short term target now: $10.62, the risk is another «boring» retest on the support level, after all this is looking like a trading range.

Our trading plan will now include a selling order:
We'll continue to hold CYBS with a stop @ $8.60, and a Limit SELL order @ $10.62

Best regards,

mexirafa · March 27, 2006, 02:48:36 PM

It almost hit our target at by 3 cents this afternoon.

Ramsburg · March 27, 2006, 02:58:30 PM

Quote from: mexirafa on March 27, 2006, 02:48:36 PM
It almost hit our target at by 3 cents this afternoon.

Yep...

And probably will fill our order before close... We dont change the trading plans during the trading session, but if we dont get filled today, we'll be probably setting an higher sell price for tomorrow...

I must confess, this candle and volume increase is changing my sentiment on CYBS for short term...

regards,

News:

CYBS