Snowcat's Hot Stock Update!

[snowcat]

 06/09/06
The Stanley Cup finals feature the Oilers v. the Hurricanes, which is also a good way to sum up the last year for the Bush Administration. – Janice Hough, comedienne

Yesterday, I went to see "The Daily Show" with John Stewart.  It is the most trusted name in fake news.  If you are not familiar with the show, he does a parody of the nightly news, making fun of the top stories.  He is an equal opportunity offender.  Reporting on the day's top story, the death of most wanted terrorist, Zakawi, they did a video montage of him and played the song "So You had a Bad Day".    The show is on comedy central at 11pm.  He has great facial expressions that crack me up.

Thanks for keeping an eye on the market while I was gone yesterday.

HSR looked like it was headed for the IBD 100, Smashing through $15, but died in the last minute of trading.  It looks like some profit taking hit it for now as it ended the day in the hi 13s. Still, it is up about 50% since we found it, like the Magic 8-ball said. (My head is looking more and more like the Magic-8-ball every day).  My boat is loaded on this one, but it is due for some consolidation.   

Medical company, IRIS, got the blessings of 3 Stocks on Fire.  It completed a cup with handle, has great numbers but it has lots of overhead resistance.  I like it and own it.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IRIS&t=1y

MIKR, a company that makes infrared detection systems, which I bought last week was up 5% on big volume.  They had great earnings this quarter.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=mikr

This might put a smile on your face, BSML
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BSML&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p72207499998

Bright Smile was up huge on great volume – possibly due to this article in this penny stock  letter:

•   BriteSmile Inc. (BSML): this is probably the time for investors of BriteSmile, the Walnut Creek, CA based teeth whitening product maker, to smile again since just recently in late May the 50 day moving average has crossed on top over 200 day moving average to form Golden Cross - a bull market signal. Since then the stock has took off from around $1.4 per share to $1.81 per share today, up almost 30% in two weeks. And more for the investors to smile about is that this will not just be a little spark but the beginning of a major rally. The stock rose 6.47% or 11 cents today and should be expected to go higher based on technical chart on strong MACD and KD, both showing buy signal as MACD is on top of signal line and K line is on top of D line. [Strong Buy]
I also bought shares of ARGN, an auto parts maker which has some great numbers, an impressive chart, and a low pe.
The RSI on this stock is very impressive.  It blasted off on huge volume – this is what you want to see!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=argn

This weekend, I will be seeing the CARS movie.  Have a great weekend.  Snowy

[snowcat]

06/12/06 
A man may learn wisdom even from a foe. – Aristophenes, writer

World Cup soccer is on a lot of minds these days, yet Americans do not have the same passion for it as the rest of the world.  The reason could be that in Europe, soccer has become a metaphor for war.  Once again England can fight France with David Beckham being Admiral Nelson and the French players being ....well....France.

And Germany, under Bismarck, can try to conquer the world.

In America, we do not need a metaphor for war, because we have the real thing whenever we want it.  In fact, frighteningly, in America, war may be a metaphor for sports.

In the stock market today, it was a good day for the bears.  I unloaded my HSR early at a profit.  I should have done it Friday on the steep pullback, but I was not quick enough. 

Remember the rules:
Big drop on high volume? – yes
15% drop from its high? – yes
Featured in Stocklemon? – not yet.

I still like the stock.  It is buyout material from maybe a Raytheon or someone as the owners are aging, but let's sit this one out for a minute and let it catch its breath.

Former winner IFO dropped another $7 today – so we know we have to get out quick when the signs point that way.  Imagine if I held that one for the split.  Yow!!!

It is always good to get into stocks showing big rises in volume – because something might be up.  BSML which jumped big of Friday announced that a company made an offer to buy them out at a big premium.  BSML turned them down so they must know something good is coming.  The stock finished up 20%.  It is still under $3.  Smile!
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=bsml

Everything else was down.  Sell in May, go away?  I am a two weeks too late for that, but it would have made more sense.

I am keeping watch on hurricane stocks – IPII, ABIX, and especially GV – the low priced, profitable company (with an 11 pe) that puts back the electrical polls when they get knocked down.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gv

Let's try to keep our wallets in our pockets and our stops short until we figure out what is going on.

In the meantime, relax, I got your back.  sNOWY

[snowcat]

06/13/06
Your chances of success are directly proportional to the degree of pleasure you derive from what you do. – Michael Korda, publishing executive.

Not much pleasure today.

I used to work for a snooty NY financial planning firm.  One day they were planning an office trip to Shea Stadium to see the Mets and they wanted me to order 30 t-shirts with the company's logo on it for everyone to wear.  Well, 100 cost the same as 30, so we had plenty of extras to hand out to clients.  I was told to take the extras home – and I recently found the box of 50 or so new shirts in my basement.  I wanted to put them to good use, so on a recent trip to NYC, I brought the shirts to hand out to the homeless on a soup line near Penn Station.  The shirts were snatched up quickly.  So if you are in NYC this Summer and see a person wearing a navy blue t-shirt with a financial service company logo on it, it is either one that I handed out, or one of my former firm's clients.

Today Cramer's giving away a free autographed "Booya bull" with a subscription to his money losing newsletter.

In today's letter he reports that:

There is always a bull market somewhere - unfortunately today it is in the shorts.

And that there is a bull market in squeezles, a rodent type animal, in Pau Tuk, South Vietnam.

It would be great if Jim Cramer could Cram one of those little red autographed bulls up his nose?   And then during the show, when someone mentions UHN during the lightning round, he can  stick his nose in the air and snot-rocket out a big Texas Booya to Butch in Arlington as the bull does a triple lutz in the air.

I would be willing to catch that at 6, 9, and 12! 

And as the waiter said to the group of old yentas sitting at the table of a Miami Beach restaurant, "Excuse me, ladies, is anything alright?"

Well UTK had a nice day, but little volume.  This company goes to Universities and buys up great research and markets it.  One to keep an eye on.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=UTK&t=1y

And of course, who can sneeze at a 19% dividend.  Naturally wait for a better market, but high interest lender, NFI, is always an attractive alternative to flushing your money down the sewer.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=nfi

CUP up 8% if you believe in copper.  http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=cup

Bottom line is the market looks like it is in for a rough summer.  Even the top stocks were taking a beating today.  I can imagine some poor guy who went on vacation on June 1, came back today and thought IFO split early – not lost half its value in a crummy market.
You should be mostly in cash now – definitely not on margin – maybe in some puts if you feel comfortable.  It is ok to sit a set out when the conditions look bad.  But I will keep my eyes open for you and be cool,  I've got your back.  Snowy

[joet]

Great post Snowy
Thanx for the humor and levity as we all need it during a week/month like this.  You sound like you have been in touch with the market far longer than i have (trading for a year now) so i ask your advice on one particular point that you made...

" You should be mostly in cash now – definitely not on margin – maybe in some puts if you feel comfortable."

I was doing well in my trading account the 1st 4 months, up almost 20% but after the recent draw downs i am holding some big decliners and my unrealized losses are eating into principle for the first time since December!  I am only holding 2% cash and am frustrated with myself for letting it get this far down and not being able to take advantage of all of the "Sale" prices...

Thoughts on when this will turn around?  Should i accept a few 40% losses, sell now and hold cash until it turns and then look to start earning again?  I have had a few small successful shorts but they hardly help.
Thanks for your thread, I enjoy it.
Cheers Joe

[MARTY]

Hey Snowcat,
I second that  "great post".  Even when the market is in such turmoil I look forward to reading your posts.  Very entertaining.  Thanks for the info!!! and laughs.

Marte

[snowcat]

Joet -

You are closing the door after the horse is gone.

Quality stocks will bounce, so look at what you have and decide if it is quality, you may want to keep it.  If it was speculative crap that you probably should not have bought in the first place, or bought because someone just mentioned it and it sounded good at the time, you may want to dump it and start with a clean slate.

Some good rules -

Sell in May and go away (look at how the market tanked in June.  This happens EVERY year)
Sell if the stock drops 15% from its high (it will likely continue to fall)
Sell if it drops big on big volume (someone richer than me is dumping shares for a reason)
Sell if the stock is the feature story in Stocklemon (a good sign of a bad sign)

Do not lose money.  If I am up big, and the stock starts falling, I would rather walk away with a 10% gain than a potential loss.  I can always buy it back.

Look at IFO.  I sold on a big vol drop, bought it back and sold again on a big vol drop from 34 to 30. Doubled my $$!!

If you do not have money in your pocket by the end of the day, YOU LOST. 
Losing is for losers.  You would be better off having a crappy job and not being in the market.  This is your opportunity to break free and make money.  If you want to gamble, check out the GIGM site for on line Mahh-Jongg.

Read William O'Neill's book, "How to make money in stocks" and get a sample subscription to Investors Business Daily.  My best stocks have come from there.

In a year, I will retire and want to read your comments.

[snowcat]

06/14/06
A man who never trusts himself never trusts anyone – Paul de Gondi – statesman

I am getting a sample subscription to the Dow Theory Forecast.  It seems that every stock they like is in excess of $50.  That is good, I guess, but it reminds me of the time I was in High School interning at a highbrow investment bank.  I was talking to one of the bankers about my looking to get my first car.  He looked at me seriously and said "My Mercedes Benz SL 500 is great – I LOVE IT! And very dependable!  You would like it.  But  the Jaguar is not for you.  It is an older man's car – and spends a lot of time in the shop.........."

The point is get advice from people on the same wavelength as you.

For the past two weeks, I have still seen buy recommendations from many financial gurus and newsletters – no "catch your breath", "sell your losers" or "buy some puts"......but buy, buy, buy.

I know there is some great stuff out there at bargain prices –CIB, SBUX, LDSH etc... that may have gotten caught up in the selling spree, but there were very few good stocks up on good volume today.  Many hit highs of the day on good volume and pulled back – a sign of manipulation.  Some were up on low volume and a few had genuine nice days – the problem again is that most stocks follow the market's trend and it has been down.

Diet company MED had a great day on 2x adv, up 5%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=med

Carbon fiber maker, ZOLT rebounded on good volume after a dismal week +8%
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=zolt

UTK, mentioned yesterday was up 7% on its normal low volume.  This could fly on a high-volume trading day
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=utk

IFO made a good try at a comeback on high volume, but pulled back.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=IFO&t=1y

And still doing nicely is building materials company, AERTA, which can benefit from the bad weather in FL.  The company has great earnings and great potential.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=AERTA&t=1y

Not much for the highlight reels is what I am trying to say.

If you must play the market, do it with your lunch money.  Most of you can lose a few pounds anyway.   But either way, I got your back.  Snowy

Joke for a down market day:

This could happen to you.

I was barely sitting down when I heard a voice from the other stall saying:
"Hi, how are you?"

I'm not the type to start a conversation in the restroom but I don't know what got into me, so I answered, somewhat embarrassed,
"Doing' just fine!"! 

and the other person says:
"So what are you up to?"

What kind of question is that? At that point, I'm thinking this is too bizarre so I say:
"Uhhh, I'm like you, just traveling!"

At this point I am just trying to get out as fast as I can when I hear another question.
"Can I come over?"

Ok, this question is just too weird for me but I figured I could just be polite and end the conversation. I tell them,
"No........I'm a little busy right now!!!"

Then I hear the person say nervously...

"Listen, I'll have to call you back. There's an idiot in the other stall who keeps answering all my questions

[snowcat]

06/15/06
Failure should be our teacher, not our undertaker.  Failure is delay, not defeat.  It is a temporary detour, not a dead end.  Failure is something we can avoid only by saying nothing, doing nothing and being nothing. – Denis Waitley, motivational speaker.

Today I was motivated by the nice gains on big volume, but I was not ready to test the depth of the water with both feet yet.

Metals were strong today with nice gains on TGB TGC, BOOM, TIE and ERS.  I put some of my lunch money in ERS as this is the first sign this once high flying stock has had of a decent volume gain day in a while.  ERS still has top numbers; it just fell out of favor with the market.  When there is a big market correction like we had last week, it is  generally a sign that there will be some new leaders emerging in the next upturn.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=tie+boom+cup+ers+

MED showed strength for the second day in a row and the chart still is in an uptrend.  Diet stocks get a lot of attention as the beach weather approaches.
Strong volume and it finished near the high of the day.  I bought some more.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=med

HSR finished also near the hod on 2x adv.  This one took a dive last week, but I still think the airplane parts supplier is a $15 stock.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=hsr

GV was up 8% on low volume, this is my favorite play as a hurricane stock.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GV

HOM was up strong on the announcement that they will soon be listed on the NAZ – be careful of this one.  There are a lot of questions about the legitimacy of their business and earnings.

There were a lot of reversals to the upside today, NXG, EZM, TTM, FIX, CWPC.ob, RTK, GIGM.  But be patient.  I would like to see another follow through day like today b4 I get serious about buying.

UTK had another massive day.......volume is picking up daily and I can see this gaining some real steam.  I picked some up yesterday and a little more today.  I think this one has potential for making us back some of the money we lost last week.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=utk

Here is a site that sells some cute stock trader t-shirts.  You can also submit your own and win a t-shirt of your own.  I suggested one with a bull and bear in a naughty position.
http://www.trader-tees.com/

There is plenty of great free and low cost stock trading education courses right under your nose.  Do yourself a favor and check them out.  Many are easy to understand and will open your eyes to making some money in this tricky market.
http://www.profittrading.com/commodity-trading-education.htm

And again, wait another day for the market to show some signs of recovery and be very picky with what you put in your portfolio.   Either way, I got your back.  Snowy

[Melf Elf]

Snowy,

Your thread is an absolute treat.   I thoroughly enjoy your insights, and your humor.  Thank you for both, particulary the humor, at a time when we've all need it.  Applause.

[snowcat]

Thanks Melf-

Big Fan, big fan.

I slowly plan to take over 3SOF as everyone slowly leaves to set up their own site.

Between me & you, check out CIB.  The Columbian Bank has had massive earnings since Juan Valdez moved his interest from coffee to drugs.  It just happened to be reported after a nice run and last week's market collapse.  The stock was down about 10 points!!!

Keep an eye on it.

And buy a great investment book for as much as 90% off.  The O'Neill book, "The Successful Investor" is about $5!  Brand New!  Hundreds to choose from.

http://www.invest-store.com/profittrading/tl060106.html

If I can teach one person to trade successfully, or $10 million, my life would be complete.

Snowy.

[nica33]

I like CIB too.  I used to buy it when it was at 8 US.  It's the most important bank in Colombia.
Important like coffee and a lot of beautiful things that has my country. It's very sad that always when someone thinks about Colombia thinks in drugs   .  Our government is fighting hardly against that.  But there is a big problem:  a lot of consumers here and everywhere.

I know there are so many persons who don't know anything about Colombia.   However I want to invite them to visit this link, perhaps it could help to change an image of a wonderful country:   http://www.colombialink.com/videos/colombia/colombia_es_pasion.html

[Melf Elf]

I slowly plan to take over 3SOF as everyone slowly leaves to set up their own site.

Snowy,

You haven't visited my site, "Melf's Money Mortuary?"   

You should stop by.  We provide a lovely service when your cash goes to "Money Heaven," based on our recommendations.  Flowers, and everything.  We'll even hold your hand and cry with you, if you want it.  It's included!  Anything to make you happy.

Where's that crying face on the toolbar?  Oh, there it is!      

See?  Sincere, wasn't it?

Melf's Money Mortuary Motto: "We treat your money right...right down to its last rites!"

Between me & you, check out CIB.

I will.  Thanks.   

[snowcat]

Nica -

Invite us down to Columbia sounds great - I guess they just gotta work on their public image.
How about: " Columbia, we are not just coffee and druglords anymore!"

Melf-

I see several 3SOF picks that are ready for a proper Christian Burial.

The metals have fallen again, except for CUP.  UTK is getting creamed after an early morning jump and all else blows chunks and gives change.

NVAX is up on a possible bird flu death.

[jorgegr]

I've been in CIB in the past but don't think it  would be a good buy
just now.
Take a good look at the last two years trend and all other indicators.

jorgegr

[snowcat]

Right now, nothing is a good buy - but when the market recovers, CIB is a leading bank in a growing economy.  It has a unique situation and there is great potential there.

But you are right, I would not buy it or much of anything right now.

I am searching for top quality companies that have been beaten down.