GV

[rickjust]

hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

[hermanpu]

GV traded 54,000 shares in after hours all at $1.70
Looks like a lot of people are interested in getting back.
Momentum buying should come in next week to bring it close to 1.90 hopefully.
Even though 3sof sold it, i think they might have done it under the pressure of its members so they don't end up in the red. I'm going to hold because I think 1.55 was the bottom and market indicates that it wants to recover from the past week. GL everyone.

[Lucas Scott]

1.90 is conservative IMO. I think the bounce takes it somewhere between 2.00 and 2.20. Yeah, the 3Stocks stop was not well placed. 3 cents above the 50 dma, which is a natural support point and support came in there on both Thursday and Friday. I don't think 3Stocks thought it would ever pull back so far though, and then they were caught in a situation where pulling the stop could potentially allow the former 90% gainer to turn into a loss. Maybe they'll buy back their position on Monday morning.

[hermanpu]

I think the mini crash was enough to put traders on a short leash at least until after the next rate hike. People will take 1.80-1.90 and run, causing another sell off to the 1.65 area so I would take most of my position off the table at 1.85 ish.

[rickjust]

hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

no response ??
hhmmm............there must be someone out there...........from the admin .
maxi

[eliteG]

hi,
i just noticed you sold gv on the 3sov.
i don't understand the reasoning if the fundamentals are the same and you are buying for value and not technicals then you would hold through the bearish phase. selling a  stock on fire when it is no longer on fire is obvious in the other portfolio but as a long term holder you would believe this to be just a glitch on it's way to higher prices based on your fundamental analysis as an investor for the long term.
isn't that what long term holding is ?
gigm's chart is also breaking down wouldn't you just lock in your 119percent gain on this now rather than watch it drift down ? and buy back lower.
why not lock in the profit then if you are also basing your value on the technical chart?
if the concern is to lose your position then it really is only a matter of either buying back in or moving on because there is always another opportunity in the market.
just a few thoughts , would love to hear michael's take on it,
thanks for all the hard work,
maxi

Everyone trades differently rickjust.  When a stock does not respond to its support levels I truly do not care if we "believe" it's worth 20 times more.  Fundamentals are from the past until we get an update(which is old itself) but on the value portfolio they give us a reason to start a play.  Technicals are current and created every trading day.  They either respond to our reason(fundamentals) correctly or something has shifted, timing was incorrect or our original analysis was wrong.  A stock going up 90% from our buy and then coming down to 5%.. I think it has some issues.

Our goal is to find you opportunities.  I think GV was a great opportunity and may still be.

[rickjust]

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.
quote from the original analysis

you loved the 10year chart so much in your analysis that it sounded like you were willing to hold until the full value of this issue was realized. i just think the portfolios are not very well clarified . forgive me for querying this but this is a paid service and everything should be open and clarified so as not to confuse the issue.
thanks again,
maxi

[tokyopua]

So my question is, did anyone else slash and burn positions before the worst of the lows, and if so what made you see it coming? Or what things do others look for to spot peaks?

1) Price Divergence --- this indicates that the bullls are getting weaker

Terliso,

I respect your opinion and analysis, and applauded you for answering this question I posed.  I think you are right, the momentum is just too strong for an immediate turnaround.  We may get some small bounces that can be traded, but viewing charts on a weekly basis shows the downtrend can still continue and its time to be on high alert for long positions.

I willl also applaud anyone else that wants to share their perspective about the market at large, etc., I think its a beneficial discussion that needs to be had (and also if anyone can point me to a thread here where this is being discussed already, as maybe the GV thread isnt admittedly the best place for it).  Like David Randolph had a whole thread back in January I think it was called "The coming storm" or something like that, and I think we had it, just 4 months later...

[Melf Elf]

I read this folder and looked at the GV chart for the first time this weekend, so with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, I thought I'd offer my two cents, since some of you still are long.

1. Parabolic Rally: From the breakout above 1.36, GV essentially rallied parabolically, with only a brief rest stop at the 1.71 low on April 27.  Parabolic rallies often have a "Parabolic Return," and GV just about has returned to the origin of the rally.

2. Descending Triangle: The lows of the Descending Triangle were 2.10 and 2.09.  When that broke on Monday, May 15, it put Target: 1.36 IN PLAY which was the high, prior to the Parabolic Rally.

The Desending Triangle was "skimpy."  It was formed in only six days, but what confirms that it's a valid, significant pattern is the fact that the 2.09-2.10 breakdown was re-tested twice, and both re-tests failed.

Tuesday, May 16, the rally failed at 2.05.

Wednesday May 17, the rally failed at 2.08, just a penny below the pattern, which confirmed, "Yes, that's resistance."

So, on any rally, 2.09-2.10 is Key Resistance.

On the failed re-tests of 2.09-2.10, the lows of those two days were 1.74 and 1.73, near the April 27 "rest stop" low of 1.71, so that provided support. 

When 1.71-1.74 support broke on Thursday, GV went down to its 50DMA on Thursday and Friday.

1.71-1.74 is Near-term Resistance.

While Thursday's and Friday's bounces off the 50DMA on Bullish Hammers look real good, the weekly candlestick doesn't.  It's a long black candlestick that reversed the prior four weeks' closes, and it was preceded by a Bearish Inverted Hangman. 

I think the mini crash was enough to put traders on a short leash at least until after the next rate hike. People will take 1.80-1.90 and run, causing another sell off to the 1.65 area so I would take most of my position off the table at 1.85 ish.

hermanpu,

That's not a bad idea.

Since we've already had two failed re-tests of 2.09-2.10 resistance, I'm suspicious about Ms. Market being generous enough to rally right back there, which would allow longs who still are standed in the Descending Triangle an opportunity to get out with little or no pain.

We might get it, though. 

( if anyone can point me to a thread here where this is being discussed already, as maybe the GV thread isnt admittedly the best place for it).

See my QQQQ thread on The World Market Indices Board, if interested, starting with my May 13 analysis.  The QQQQ is a proxy for the NASDAQ 100.

Good luck to those of you who have positions in GV!

[lalitha0]

Hi Melf,

I really appreciate your analysis. I am still holding and waiting for a little bounce to sell.
At least now the volume has dried up, may be it will hold here for a while. it is still above 50MA.

Thanks
Lalitha

[gharknes]

when did 3sof sell this stock, it never closed below 1.55, to my knowledge it never hit 1.55 except for a yahoo error, I had asked for an email to be sent out to members indicating when 3sof is selling (preferably)  or has sold a stock.

if we are to make money based on 3sof recomendations we need clear precise timely instructions, DR always made to point that we would sell if a stock closed below a certain level, not we are working with interday....why has this changed ?

GV has been a nightmare for me, if I had been instructed to sell at 2.70 I would have, but 3sof was so bullish on this stock i held it.

sell instruction
1.55 is above the original buy instruction, if it was good to buy 3 weeks ago at 1.50 why is it not now, what has changed, fundamentals are the same, the company is the same. I don't understand and quite frankly I'm a little unhappy. Yes I know the market tanked but recovery will happen, are we saying that GV will not recover are we saying it was an error to buy it in the first place, i still hold shares and didn't sell because it never closed below 1.55


I also sent a PM and email to the 3sof advisor dealing with this stock and got no reply


why are we members here, why are we paying every month

I need answers, I need to understaand why I lost 60,000 dollars on this stock, I need to know how 3sof is going to operate in the future..................I used to be very confident in the trading picks intructions provided by David R...................now I'm not so sure 

[usedcasting]

gharknes, I am losing money at present here too but you must understand that if you had followed 3sof guidance you would have made 5 points, not lost money. We all have to take responsibility for our own actions, lesson number one.

uc.

[AussieTrader]

GV - HOLD, unless it prints our stop @ $1.55.

This is a copy paste from the daily 3stocks e-mails that get sent out covering all their open positions and what the current instructions are. It's pretty clear.

Well, it printed that number on Friday.

I need answers, I need to understaand why I lost 60,000 dollars on this stock.

Sorry for your loss, but only 1 person has the answer as to why it happened, if you don't know who that person is, well..........

[Melf Elf]

gharknes,

I also am sorry for you loss.  That's a terrible hit to take, and I can understand why you are so upset.  But, I also agree 100% with (and applaud) usedcasting"s and Aussie Trader's comments to you.   Please give their remarks your thoughtful consideration.

[usedcasting]

Hey Melf it's about time you took a look at this stock. Just kidding, thanks for the review. It's been a rocky road and I personally over did it here myself but never the less here we are and I am still optimistic.

Updating my previous chart.

Thanks again Melf.

uc.