GV

[Ramsburg]

Dear gharknes,

I'm sorry to hear about your loses on GV or any other trades.

I was thinking not to reply you here and maybe sent you an email... but on a second thought I decided to give you my opinion on this.
I'll be sincere, I'll probably jump a bit on my «diplomatic» obligations (as an exception), and I'll be straight with you as a fellow trader.

1) First of all: We assume that everyone here is an adult, and that everyone here understands the risks of stock trading.
We also assume that everyone here understands the importance of investment diversification, and that everyone here knows that each of 3SOF position represents 6.6% of total equity.

2) The Market is not wonderland, and we are not some Magic Wizards.
The Market is not an Exact Science and we are not Scientists.
The Market is not Pure Math, and we are not Mathematicians.   
The Market is what it is, and we are humans, hard working individuals determined to beat the market on the long run -> that's what we are and that's what we do!

3) You said you paid us for a trading plan, exact buy and sell instructions.
I don't see where have we failed here?
We gave our members an entry call before market leading to a purchase at 1.475 and during several days we established a stop level at 1.55 which was executed during the market sell off. As a result we closed down a 5% profit (pretty disappointing after we were up 90%.)
I believe what you were expecting from us was that our trading plan was:
Buy GV tomorrow at $1.475 and Sell GV at $2.84 on May/5/2006
The thing is... me too, and EliteG and everybody else wanted that to be our trading plan for sure...
If we didn't sell GV at the highs, it was just because we truly expected it to go higher... We failed... we failed like we failed before, and as we'll fail much more times in the future. It sucks!!! It's really hard and it hurts a lot... but unfortunately the stock market it's like that... and it will always be like that.
Since we started 3SOF portfolio last year, we closed down 127 losses and 97 profits. Did we fail from having more losses than profits? And what about those profits? Did we fail? I mean did we actually sell always at the highs of the moves?
I guess it depends from the perspective, but my view is that we worked a lot for each of this trades, we explained and elaborate on all of them, and we explained why we were buying and why we were selling and we tried to provide the best advisement possible to all our subscribers always before market action.

Once an old friend told me:
«Learn how to Lose, and finally you'll be able to Win»
The 3SOF Team knows how to Lose, and we have been winning so far. 127 loses could only mean that we know how to lose, how to stay focus, how to accept the market conditions and our limitations as humans.
We never advertised something like: «WIN big MONEY with our recs» or «100% guaranteed investment advisement service», or even like some of our competitors: «50 consecutive profits with an average of 50%». We are serious about what we do, and we are serious about our subscriber's intellect.

There's an adequate quote from Jesse Livermore about this:

The average man doesn't wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn't even wish to have to think.
Jesse Livermore

We don't believe in the «doesn't even wish to have to think» idea, so our approach is T2T (Traders to Traders), we do all our DD and trading strategies like an open book to our members, and many of our subscribers input their own DD as well, so they can learn from us and vice versa, so that the whole group gather more and more knowledge about the market. Some members are following our picks by the book, some others are picking just some of our picks after they do their own DD, some are following our money management strategy some others don't... We can't control all that, and that's not our role. Our role is to contribute on a positive way for the whole group, and ultimately to find more and more good picks, leading our Portfolios higher.

4) We assume our mistakes, we assume our loses, and we give our face on that all the time. We are always open to discuss any matter with our members, by private message, email, etc, and we don't censor any uncomfortable post about any subject related to our service (this topic, already spread around 2 boards is proof of that).
We don't blame anyone else from our mistakes, we are straight about that, we took wrong trading strategies in the past and we'll sure take them in the future (unless we got Cramer on the team).
We are comfortable about that, after all, we are traders, we have the dangerous job in the world, and risk is our middle name.

Now gharknes, if you are not comfortable with mistakes, loses, and profits drawdowns, I'm not sure what to say... maybe: «Welcome to the Stock Market!»

5) I want the team to be concentrated in what is supposed to be our work. So I'm not sure if this is a never ending story or a ping pong game... but I expect to see everybody more focus on picks, trades and stock talking, that would be cool, and the market is not playing around now.

6) 3SOF is a gentlemen's community of traders, and we love to promote this culture. I guess it's the only way to face such a dangerous arena. Lets keep it that way, ok ?

I guess its all for now... returning to my regular «diplomatic» mod, and I'm sorry again for your loses.

My best regards,

[gharknes]

cheers for taking the time to reply


My own trading strategy when buying a stock has always been to to set limits, what am I prepared to loose (stop limit) what is my target profit, yes I admitted my trading in GV was careless but there where factors that promoted that careless approach, I bought a stock on Monday EZM 1.95 because it is on my radar and I know it's patterns, I had a stop loss at 1.85, I sold it yesterday at 2.29 with a gain of some 15,000 dollars because that is what I wanted from it and I am aware that that was it's resistance, I also owned HOM last year 19,000 shares bought at 3.80 wish I had them now, I sold it for a 10,000 gain, so I am familiar with trading in an organised manner outside of 3sof.

thanks for your reply, I hope when we buy GV again we will have a safer approach and lock in profits when they're staring us in the face

still not clear on why it was sold at 1.55, I still hold GV and fundamentals haven't changed perhaps someone could explain what methods where used to determine the 1.55 sell, was it a support area, was it just a gut feel lets take 5% profit or what, i regard this as highly important, when 3sof sell a stock with the initial write up it got, there has to be a very good reason to sell it.....sorry if I don't see it, I'm worried in case i missed something....thanks

[rickjust]

is it a buy again or is this just a minor bounce?
anyone?
maxi

[Melf Elf]

is it a buy again or is this just a minor bounce?
anyone?
maxi

maxi,

I hope that it's more than a minor bounce for those who are long, but I passed on the little Ascending Triangle breakout at 1.69 because I don't like to buy into immediate resistance, which was 1.71-1.74.  GV made some progress through that resistance area yesterday, getting to 1.79, but there's selling pressure from those who bought higher, and the stock closed at 1.71.

That was a good day.  GV closed above the top of the Ascending Triangle (1.68), so that was good, and it worked off some of the overhead selling pressure, but the Ascending Triangle is a pretty weak pattern (formed over a short time), going up against quite a bit of resistance.

The Target: 1.36 IN PLAY from the Descending Triangle breakdown and the possibility of a Parabolic Return (also 1.36) are two other reasons that I passed on the trade. 

[rickjust]

thanks melf,
maxi

[Melf Elf]

This Ascending Triangle is a very small pattern, relative to all of the overhead resistance above 1.71-1.74 Near-term Resistance that we discussed yesterday, so this little breakout is suspect.

GV already is treading water in that area, right after a "breakout."  It's not acting like it broke out, if you see what I mean.

The low right before this breakout was 1.56.  What I normally do is put my stop a penny below that "last low," prior to a breakout.  That, as irony would have it, puts the stop right at 1.55, the 3SOF stop.

 

FWIW, that's the stop I'd use.  If this breakout isn't going anywhere, I'd get out of it with a small gain, like eliteG did.  Just my opinion.

You're welcome, maxi.  This is what I was afraid of on the weak Ascending Triangle breakout yesterday, darn it.  I was hoping that it would go higher, for those long.  If I had played the Ascending Triangle breakout, I'd be stopped out here, at 1.55, for an 8.3% loss.

That's why it's usually best not to get long stocks that are rallying right into resistance.

[gharknes]

I still have not received the answer to my question so I will ask it again


How did 3sof calculate the sell of 1.55 on GV, it was bought at 1.47 based on very sound fundamentals which as far as I can see haven't changed, it is importand for me and maybe others as to the thing behind the sell at 1.55, can I please have this question answered by  3sof, as a member here I don't think the question is unreasonable.

[usedcasting]

Well gharknes, I for one hope that the 3SOF team are busy with their future picks and thats that. I know you are looking for answers but the writing is on the wall (and just about every where else), they may choose to respond but I thought I would give it a stab to maybe help you out. One possibility is that the $1.55 was a number where they could still take a little profit if the stock completely breaks down and the market goes to hell. I'm sure they never really thought that would be the outcome but nevertheless the safe guard was put in place and they made 5 points.

[Melf Elf]

One possibility is that the $1.55 was a number where they could still take a little profit if the stock completely breaks down and the market goes to hell. I'm sure they never really thought that would be the outcome but nevertheless the safe guard was put in place and they made 5 points.

uc,

Exactly. 

Regardless of what the fundamentals are or are not, selling GV was a business decision.  As David Randolph said a number of times, and as others have said, "Don't let your big winners turn into a loser." 

GV was a big winner that was turning into a loser.  For THAT REASON, 3SOF sold it for a 5% gain.

Period.  End.

Thanks uc, and applause for your response, although I think you could have tried to be much more diplomatic, like me:

"SHUT THE HELL UP!" Melf Elf merely suggested, with great tolerance, love and affection.

[gharknes]

sorry guys but as a paying member here (same as you) that quite simply isn't good enough, it is very unusual for 3sof to set a stop loss above the buying price, most traders set a stop loss below the buy price, this just doesn't quite fit with my understanding,  I want to know why within 2 weeks this turned from the best pick on the market (the hype) to sell it and push the whole thing under the carpet, I want answers. I know why we bought it, it was explained in every detail, now I want to know why we sold it....in the same detail, yes I have interests in GV but setting that aside I think it is a good stock to analyse 3sof - approach - buy and exit........I want/need to understand this, I believe it is my right to ask these questions and also as a paying member here to have them answered.

yes the market is horrible right now and most people will be feeling pain, if I am going to continue here as aa paying member I need to have confidence in the I am being advised to trade, my expectations from 3sof are

to do market analysis and find me stocks to invest in
tell me when to buy the stock (trading plan)
tell me when to sell the stock (trading plan)

simple

I assume this subsciption investors service is open honest and accomodating to its paying members, I would like my questios answered, it is important to me now and in the future with 3sof

[eliteG]

I wanted to apologize to the community for this distraction.  The admins and our members have repeatedly explained to gharkness that he is in the wrong..

Our community should be focused on the markets not this one person soap opera.

We have placed a one day posting ban on gharkness and without an apology to our community that will not be lifted.

Let's not spend one more minute of our trading day on this.

[beroznikmal]

I like todays action... i think we might see at least 10% today or tomorrow...

I anticipate that the market may rally up 3 -4 more days and continue its down cycle....

Good luck all....

B

[beroznikmal]

MACD looks bearish but I really think GV will turn around tomorrow....

[eliteG]

We are buying this stock for both the 3SOF and 3SOV portfolio.  Therefore, we will trade the positions in a different manner.  The 3SOF method will be a much stricter technical method.  The 3SOV method will try to maintain a position until true value is attained through looser stops.
quote from the original analysis

you loved the 10year chart so much in your analysis that it sounded like you were willing to hold until the full value of this issue was realized. i just think the portfolios are not very well clarified . forgive me for querying this but this is a paid service and everything should be open and clarified so as not to confuse the issue.
thanks again,
maxi

Hey Maxi,

Yes I would have liked to trade the portfolio positions differently and I definately had a plan on that.  In fact I remember talking about it with Ramsburg the day before GV decided to do a death spiral. 

The plan was to sell GV(full at 3SOF and potentially partial on 3SOV) on a rally after crossing 3 and continue to watch to hold on 3SOV with a generous stop.  In a bull market this plan perhaps was feasible(definately greedy).. at a market top we get a death spiral that takes out our generous stop(personally I did not think it could get hit so fast) and even dropped below our buy point today!

With a hot new technology stock I would be eager to get back in at these levels.  Still GV may turn out to be at a bottom here and the team will watch and see if it comes back in play.

So to clarify.. yes we really wanted to hold this stock for longer but since GV exploded and then imploded it does not make this type of trading doable and as traders we must adapt... and learn to take profits earlier. 

[hermanpu]

Just wondering, are the portfolios for 3sof real? or are they just paper trading. if real, whose money is it?