GV

[Melf Elf]

34/55RSIs:

[Melf Elf]

In addition to being rejected at the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical lines, yesterday's candlestick was a Bearish Engulfing pattern, so both of those factors suggest further correction of the recent 42% rally.

We got more correction.  At Friday's close, GV is 9.5% off Monday's 1.90 high.

If we go down and tag that trendline, then bounce higher, that's called a trendline validation.  The market would be telling us that players are well-aware of the trendline, and that they aren't going to allow the stock to go below it.  Players, in that circumstance, view the trendline as support, and as a place to enter the stock long when that occurs.

The slope of that trendline is +0.02286 per day.  Here are the data points for the next few sessions:

Friday, July 7 - 1.719

Friday's close was 1.72, smack on the Ascending line of the possible Bullish Ascending Triangle.

Possible Bullsih Technical Scenarios for "Old Man GV":

2. We get the Ascending Triangle validation that I just described, then breakout.

Friday's low and close of 1.72 close brings Bullish Scenario #2 to the fore.   Note also that 1.72 was the June 27 high, prior to the move to 1.90.  "Former resistance should become support."

NOTE: if it violates the trendline only nominally (by a half penny, or a penny), then the stock rallies, that's fine.  It's still a validation.  We can't require exactitude.

No, we can't, but we also can't can't allow too much sloppiness.

Here's the problem with Friday's ascending trendline validation:  the trendline rises 0.02286 per day, so on Monday, July 10, the trendline will be at 1.741.  If GV opens unchanged at 1.72, it automatically will be in violation of that trendline.



That doesn't mean that all is lost (we've got other bullish scenarios), but if we start seeing prints on Monday  of 1.71...1.70...1.69...we can forget about that trendline validation, and we also can forget about "former resistance at 1.72 becoming support."



Three weeks ago, coming off the 1.33 low after the break of 1.41 support, we discussed wanting to see "Old Man GV' just stand in there...defend himself...throw a few well-placed punches, and try just to get back in the bout.  No attempts at a knockout punch.  Nice and steady.

Wow!  GV's performance since then has been near-perfection.  As the chart stands, we've got the possibility of a Bullish Inverse H&S...or a Bullish Ascending Triangle...or Lucas Scott's Bullish Cup & Handle.  Have what you will, the chart structure is impressive, as it stands.

Obviously, we need a BREAKOUT, though.  Preferably, NOW. 

The reason that I say that is because the work is done.  The chart looks beautiful, and the technicals also are beautifully positioned for a breakout.  1.60, as we discussed, clearly was established as support, prior to the move to 1.90.

If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

Next, a few RSI charts that demonstrate what I mean about the chart being "technically ready" for the breakout, and the problem that we'd have if "Old Man GV" doesn't break out here.



  KNOCK 'EM OUT, DANG IT!! 

[Melf Elf]

On Friday, the 34 RSI fell back below its shadow, the 55RSI.  That isn't fatal, but it's a WARNING.  "Do you want to sell?"

My answer in this case would be "NO" because GV is sitting at 1.72, which is smack on the ascending line, and which also is a re-test of a prior high (June 27).

Sometimes, one Fibonnaci measure of realive strength goes "out of sync" in order for one or more other measures of relative strength to come into synchronicity.

It's a judgment call, based on the chart, and based on other technicals that we look at, whether or not we want to take a signal.  But, this is what I mean by,  "We don't want to see too much sloppiness."

What are other measures of RSI indicating?

Next, we'll look at the 13/21 RSIs, then the longer-term 144/233 RSIs (that's as far out as I go.  233, roughly, is one year's worth of trading).   

[Melf Elf]

EDIT: Sorry, I had to delete an repost that last chart.  I had my Fibonacci sequences out of sequence. 

The 13/21 RSIs are coming back into synchronicity, and they have a little more "room" on the downside.  This looks fine.

[Melf Elf]

The 144/233 RSIs have come into Bullish synchronicity, right at the 233 day exponential moving average. 

Observe back in June, when the 144 RSI went below its 233 RSI "shadow." (red arrows).  That was "We've got problems, Houston!"  and it took awhile to repair that technical damage, and to get the 144/233 "back in sync."

This one is READY!  If we draw a trendline across the 1.87-1.90 highs (I didn't want to make the chart unreadable), it's also a Bullish Inverse H&S pattern.

We don't want to see a failure here (144 going back below its 233 "shadow").

[Melf Elf]

Here's the problem with Friday's ascending trendline validation:  the trendline rises 0.02286 per day, so on Monday, July 10, the trendline will be at 1.741.  If GV opens unchanged at 1.72, it automatically will be in violation of that trendline.



That doesn't mean that all is lost (we've got other bullish scenarios), but if we start seeing prints on Monday  of 1.71...1.70...1.69...we can forget about that trendline validation, and we also can forget about "former resistance at 1.72 becoming support."

1.72 support is broken. 

If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

1.60 is next support.   

[Melf Elf]

If GV falters right here...and goes back and prints 1.59, below established 1.60 support...UGH!

1.60 would then be resistance ("broken support becomes resistance"), and we'd have problems with the technicals, as well.

1.60 is next support.   

GV has printed 1.59.  That's TWO breaks of support in one day.  UGH...

[Lucas Scott]

Don't panic Melf. Get ready to do a mo'n back!

[Melf Elf]

Don't panic Melf. Get ready to do a mo'n back!

Luke,

I don't own GV.   I just would like to see this work out, but these breaks of support make it difficult for those of you who are long.

My Bullish Inverse H&S scenario (shown below) also is blown.  The neckline comes in today at about 1.65, so the break below that level suggests either that the neckline re-test failed, or that the pattern wasn't valid, as I had thought.

The 22-day Kijun-Sen (solid red line), which acted as strong support at 1.60, currently is at 1.615, and we're below that also.

The 34/55 RSI that gave us the WARNING at Friday's close will head down some more on any negative close today.



There's still the Inverse H&S possibility (neckline 1.87-1.91) and the Double Bottom possibility at/near 1.33, but that's a lot of drawdown, and makes it tough on you guys.



I'd sure like to see it at least close at 1.60, or better. 

[winner919]

5. We double-bottom at/near 1.33, then go up and knock out 1.87-1.90 resistance.

Melf:

do you think we get double bottom now?

Thanks

winner

[Melf Elf]

Melf:

do you think we get double bottom now?

Thanks

winner,

After the nasty breaks of support on July 10, beginning with the break of 1.72 support right at the open, GV went all the way down to 1.25.  That's a big drawdown, which was my concern that afternoon for any of you holding. UGH.

MACD didn't confirm the new low, however, so a double bottom certainly is possible (I'll show you that chart next).  But, bullish divergences are meaningless without price confirmation. 

GV, currently at 1.42,  is well below resistance.

Remember back in late June, when 1.60 was solid support at the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line)?

The price area just below 1.60 now is solid resistance.   

1. 1.575 - the 22-day Kijun-sen (solid red line)

2. 1.53 - the bottom of the Kumo (Cloud)...the vertical red lines.

3. 1.49 - the 8-day Tenkan-sen (solid green line)

All of the nice base-building that GV did in June has been blown, so GV has to start all over again. 

Looking at this Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart "table of balance...at a glance" below, we can see at a glance that the table of balance strongly favors the Bears.  The Kumo (Cloud), represented by the vertical red llines, extends from 1.53 to 2.035.  It looks more like a mountain of resistance, or a brick wall than it does a cloud.



Technically, GV has got some work to do.

[Melf Elf]

MACD didn't confirm the recent low and is turning higher, so that's at least encouraging that GV possibly has made a double bottom here.

As I said in the last post, though, bullish divergences in a bearish trend are meaningless without price doing something bullish, as well, and GV has some work to do on the upside, so we don't want to make too much of a bullish divergence.

"Bear markets descend on a cushion of hope."

[winner919]

Thank you for your analysis, Melf. I am still holding it and I hope next hurricane can drive it up.

[Melf Elf]

Thank you for your analysis, Melf. I am still holding it and I hope next hurricane can drive it up.

winner,

You're welcome.  It looks like GV is going to need something on the fundamental front.  Technically, it's looking pretty lousy here.

In addition to the stacked resistance beginning at 1.49 that I outlined in my post this morning, near-term resistance, basis the 10-minute chart below, is at 1.44.  GV has been trying to get through there for the past few days, and repeatedly has gotten refused.

GV needs to hold the recent 1.25-1.26 lows, then print 1.45.  Good luck with this one, winner.  I hope that it turns higher for you.

[tokyopua]

Up 5% today, I assume due to the possiblie hurricande in the Carribean.  Anyone still holding or thinking of getting in?