AMLN

[stockpicker]

Michael,

Thanks for your AMLN report and I would like to add a couple of more words about the fundamentals.

Most diabetic start on oral (pills) treatment. Unfortunately, over 60% of the patients eventually fail the oral treatment, and Insulin was their only choice. Over a million Americans are diagnosed with high sugar level every year (and this number quickly grows due to the obesity problem), so today, they can choose between Byetta (AMLN's largest drug) and Insulin. So:

Insulin: weight gain
Byetta: weight loss

Insulin: the dose is adjusted based on the consumption of carbs
Byetta: the drug action adjusts to the current body need so the patient doesn't need to adjust the dose

Cardiovascular: Byetta increases HDL ("good cholesterol") and reduced the bad cholesterol
(I am not sure if Insuling has any effect about this)

Beta cells regenration: It is becoming more and more aparent that Byetta restores the regeneration of the beta cells -- if this will be approved -- HOME RUN. Insulin has no such effect whatsoever.

So.. will a "new diabetic" take Byetta or Insulin?

Let's examine AMLN's mkt cap. Non-generic pharmas are traded at 8-15 revenues, so today's mkt cap of $2.4B "represent" peak revenues of $240MM (assuming a moderate 10X sales). I will further assume that Symlin revenues is going to be 20% of Byetta revenues, and since AMLN splits the US revenue of Byetta with LLY, the market currently assumes that Byetta revenues will be LESS than $400MM and that Symlin will sell less than $100MM.

The annual revenue/patient of these drugs is roughly $2000, so don't you think that more than 200,000 patients will eventually use Byetta? I think that MOST of the "new diabetic" will take Byetta, so it is more likely than not that AMLN's revenues are going to be MUCH MUCH higher than today's expectations of $400MM.

[Michael]

HI Stockpicker,

What is there more to say except a sincere thank you to the Gila Monster. I guess we both owe this little cute animal a small fortune 

[Michael]

I thought i had lost all credibility after the sell off of AMLN when I recommended it.

Today S&P mentioned AMLN as one of their four top picks so at least I am not alone: http://www.forbes.com/markets/2005/07/15/genentech-amylin-biotechnology-0715markets07.html?partner=yahootix

Standard & Poor's Equity Research raised its fundamental outlook for the biotech sector to "positive" from "neutral," saying 2006 should see more product approvals over 2005 levels. "We expect a major theme for the biotech sector to be new product and supplemental approvals for the industry," S&P Equity Research said. Over the next 12 months, the research firm expects sector price appreciation of about 20% and believes the sector could sustain high-teen earnings-per-share growth over the next three years. S&P Equity Research's top recommendations are Genentech, Amylin Pharmaceuticals, Renovis and Invitrogen, all rated at "strong buy."

[axyx_axyx]

Don't lose track of AMLN.  Short intrest has increased from 14M to 25M, these guys are committed, are they over extended?  It seems they didn't bother to cover on the run up from $14.50 to the recent high of $23.47.  AMLN is currently trading about $19, second day it finds support at this level.  While you may not want to buy at this level, you will not want to lose track with 25% short, they are going to have to cover at some point.

http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/quotes_full.asp?mode=&kind=shortint&symbol=AMLN&FormType=&mkttype=&pathname=&page=short&selected=amln&64761

[Michael]

Hi axyx,

Who can lose track of our little Gila Monster .This is still one of the best picks in my portfolio!

Scripts numbers are out for the Week ending July 22 and the street loves them:
Byetta total 3877, new 3656. Symlin total 1132, new 925

Piper Jaffray has also been out with a comment: "Street underestimating benefits of Byetta..."

and finally A Morgan Stanley report has just hit the wire covering Byetta and AMLN. Morgan is lowering there 2005 revenue forecast for Byetta but suggests long-term fundementals intact.

Hmmm......  I think the short is out for a surprise!

[catrader]

positive results in phase ii trials.  up 20% after hours today.  whoever is  in this, congrats.

[catrader]

up more than 5.50 after hours now.  Having run so fast, might alks be a play here?  it has only risen 7% after hours and they jointly develop byetta with amln right?  might be a matter of short covering too in amln. what an opportunity this would have been in restrospect. wow no post on amln since early this month.

[la-onda]

AMLN ON FIRE!!

BIG NEWS out !!
UPGRADES
up to 29 $ in premarket !!

[irod]

 

[catrader]

at hight 27's low 28's still think an ok place to get in?  still a large short interest and potential.  but then it has run like 30%.  like eould you get in here or alks?

[stockpicker]

I am still in and not selling a single share

[equity]

Very pretty triple top breakout here.  This one could eventually see triple digits.

[setravis]

Worth an updated look at the thread and chart.......

[setravis]

PHARMA CATALYST: Amylin Pharma (AMLN) absolutely destroyed after the FDA surprised the market by asking for more data on a key drug


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-unusual-stocks-20-october-2010#pharma-catalyst-amylin-pharma-amln-absolutely-destroyed-after-the-fda-surprised-the-market-by-asking-for-more-data-on-a-key-drug-1#ixzz12vtLXglo

[setravis]

Alkermes (ALKS) dropping hard, they were a partner with Amylin on the treatment


Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/10-unusual-stocks-20-october-2010#alkermes-alks-dropping-hard-they-were-a-partner-with-amylin-on-the-treatment-2#ixzz12vuK4V84