shorting and put strategy

[Lucas Scott]

Great day for my positions in that 2 of my 3 shorts are down (NTRI down 4% and SIMC down 7%) and everything else is up. Almost exactly as it should be. If only INFA was in the red it would be perfect.

I think this is a set up for another round of selling, at least a retest of Wednesday's lows in the not too distant future. I will look to add short positions on lower-volume bounces to the underside of the 20ema or 50dma. There will be lots of candidates if this rally continues tomorrow.

[nullzero]

I dont trust the market one bit this just seems like one big bull trap... Friday sell off? we will see... i covered 2 SHORT Postions for a loss today took advantage to short more NEW ... still holding NEW, BRCD, QSII, SHFL all short no long positions.

[Melf Elf]

I dont trust the market one bit this just seems like one big bull trap... Friday sell off? we will see... i covered 2 SHORT Postions for a loss today took advantage to short more NEW ... still holding NEW, BRCD, QSII, SHFL all short no long positions.

nullzero,

I like your NEW as a possible short candidate.  I'm considering it if it rallies much further above the neckline of the H&S Top.  The trade would have a risk similar to my short of ESLR: the threat of the Right Shoulder being taken out on a short squeeze. 

Hate that.     

[nullzero]

I didnt expect NEW to pass 45 but it did my stop went off ;( and  I repositioned in the 45.40s. On a fundamental view it looks like the whole real estate mortgage industry is in for a shock. The mortgage lenders are fighting fist over hand to get customers I see them lending to people with ficos under 650 and horrible credit. The mortgage lending industry has gotten too bloated and I expect the newer guys in the game will get shut out. NEW is pretty new company founded in 1995 in Irvine, CA... they have never experienced a bear market in real estate like what happened in the 1980s to early 1990s.

The real estate market looks like it has topped off and is heading down. Check out this video by a UCLA professor about the recent housing market bubble in California and around the nation http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-2640239019877885520&q=ucla+housing+bubble it gives a good analaysis on possibly bearish future on the real estate market. In the video he specficially mentions the problems ahead in the real estate mortgage lending industry in California. Very informative and intresting video I must say. Homebuilders are naturally the first to experience problems when a real estate market slows I would suspect when the buyers dry up and supply overloads the mortgage lenders will be hurting when new and existing home sales slow.

Anyway to sum it up I doubt NEW will have the profits to cover the div it currently yields and will cut down the div leading to futher decline... tough times ahead and I expect tougher times for NEW. Target possibly in the low 30s.

[Melf Elf]

Homebuilders are naturally the first to experience problems when a real estate market slows

nullzero,

It's been somewhat of a "stealth bear" in the builders, given the fact that the DJUSHB topped out last July, well ahead of the rest of the market.  That index, at this week's low, was down 45% from its high, a drop much more severe that the general market.

Anyway to sum it up I doubt NEW will have the profits to cover the div it currently yields and will cut down the div leading to futher decline... tough times ahead and I expect tougher times for NEW. Target possibly in the low 30s.

I think I'll start a new thread for NEW, so that it will be easier to follow.  I'll do that next.

[joet]

Anyone still short SHFL??  Thoughts, tride to rally with the market thursday, down Friday, I still feel that it should fill the gap around 26-27. 

All TA thoughts appreciated  Cheers Joe

[nullzero]

im still short on SHFL I dont plan on covering anytime soon.

[Terliso]

Shorts Lists: take ur pick

UNH, EBAY, CHS, POWI, BKHM, ADI, SCT, MCO, PANC, CYH, HHGP, LOJN...

Added some potential shorts

PG, JNPR, TEVA, ERTS, MXIM, LEH(my target $61.00), COH, AMZN, NUAN, SWKS, ADBE, JLG

Have fun!!

More than 2 months now of holding... you could have gain some of these shorts pick when the bear market started couple months ago


Shorts pick posted on May 07. 2006 if you just sold all these in the opening bell of MAY 08, 2006 you could be a rich man by now... not that rich
 
          Buy Price          Current price         Gain/Loss
UNH    $46.15               $48.40              4.87%
EBAY  $32.55               $26.59              18.31%
CHS    $29.51               $22.80              22.74%
POWI  $19.59               $15.87              18.99%
BKHM  $5.09                 $2.74                46.17%
ADI     $35.63               $31.51              11.56%
SCT    $21.00               $15.32              27.05%
MCO    $58.25              $51.05              12.36%
PANC   $6.06                $4.48                26.07%
CYH     $35.00              $36.13              3.23%
HHGP   $14.47              $9.44              34.76%
LOJN    $20.96              $16.51              21.23%



Shorts pick posted on May 13, 2006 (if you just short it @ the opening bell of 05-15-06 you could have made some fortune:)

        Buy Price            Current price        Gain/Loss
PG      $54.69               $55.81              2.05%
JNPR   $16.80               $14.32              14.76%
TEVA  $38.04               $30.60              19.56%
ERTS   $44.94               $44.99              0.11%
MXIM   $32.26               $28.23              12.49%
LEH     $69.45               $59.97              13.65%
COH    $30.36               $25.58              15.74%
AMZN  $32.55               $33.49              2.89%
NUAN  $10.62               $8.74                17.70%
SWKS  $6.35                $4.64                26.93%
ADBE   $31.86              $27.69              13.08%
JLG      $24.17              $17.81              26.31%