Searching for treasures in China - TBYH.OB

[Michael]

I would like to think that TBYH is breaking out due to the fundamental values but I think something else is cooking here.

Maybe there will be news about the listing on one of the main exchanges or maybe...

Well it is embarrasing to admit but I don't have a clue so let the chart do the talking....

[joet]

Thanx for this one Michael
I got in at 1.90,  now as it is breaking out i am still trying to formulat my trading plan!  With such a low PE i figured it would be a longer term hold, but with the explosive break out i may have to take some profits as the RSI gets into the 80's... hmmm  then again we are about to get the 3 Magics to cross and if Terliso's Magic holds true we could see new highs in the not to distant future.  With this kind of movement on light volume where could it go  if a million plus shares traded hands??
Lets see where it goes
Cheers Joe

[Michael]

Thanx for this one Michael
I got in at 1.90,  now as it is breaking out i am still trying to formulat my trading plan!  With such a low PE i figured it would be a longer term hold, but with the explosive break out i may have to take some profits as the RSI gets into the 80's... hmmm  then again we are about to get the 3 Magics to cross and if Terliso's Magic holds true we could see new highs in the not to distant future.  With this kind of movement on light volume where could it go  if a million plus shares traded hands??
Lets see where it goes
Cheers Joe

To sell, buy or hold that is the question 

We are up again today under what I would consider good volume especially for a stock like TBYH.

I don't think it is a secrete that I am heavily invested in TBYH but I am not selling. The stock is still very cheap with a PE of 7.5 and with the buying interest that we have experienced the last couple of days I think that the PE will go down after the next earnings release.

A fair value with the growth and the cash this company generates would be north of $6.

We are obviously trading at a discount due to the OTCBB status but that could also change soon.

We will see but I like the stock and it is difficult to complain about the chart   

[Fré]

Still extremely undervalued stock.
I expect a golden cross next week, maybe that'll attract some new investors.

[Michael]

Still extremely undervalued stock.
I expect a golden cross next week, maybe that'll attract some new investors.

Even more undervalued after todays pressrelease:

TBYH Raises 06-07FY Net Profit Projection to 25-35%
Tuesday January 30, 9:00 am ET

SHANGHAI, China, Jan. 30 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- T-Bay Holdings Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: TBYH - News) today announced it is raising its 06-07 fiscal year net profit projection from 10-30% to 25%-35%. The rise of the net profit projection was attributed to the outstanding performance of the first nine months and the growth expectation of its new product line that was recently introduced.

They now expects between 12.6 and 13.6 million USD net profit.

I will keep holding my TBYH shares 

[la-onda]

Michael, are you still invested ??
happy easter from SG

Oliver

[Michael]

Michael, are you still invested ??
happy easter from SG

Oliver

Happy Easter to you as well. I hope you are enjoying Singapore

T-Bay is still a steal as these prices. I am however not in the stock. I would personally not buy it here. It seems to my that it is one of those stocks that you buy when it is off the radar screens and then wait till its strong fundamentals get some attention.

As you know I am more than 90% in cash and stocks really have to be extremely attractive before I put money on the table. I have been a bit lucky lately but with such a small percentage in the market it really doesn't make a big difference.

Quite frustrating really 

[joet]

Michael
Thanx for the update on TBYH, I still have 1/2 pos from 1.90 and will sit on them for a bit.

Curious if you could share why you are 90% out of the markets?  Personal reasons or are you that bearish on hte current scene?  Are you playing the short side of any?  What are you looking for as a sign to start buying/trading again?

Cheers,
Curious Joe

[Fré]

I didn't want to miss the ride I expected, but as TBYH is so unpredictable, I only took 1/2 position at 2.55. So I've got a (nice) profit, but it's not as big as it could have been. But that's life, I suppose 

[Fré]

Sitting on a 55% profit here!

[raspi]

I don't know if Michael still owns this one but I would like to thanks him for pointing TBYH to me last year  .
I only bought 5000 shares between $1.6-1.9 but I love it anyway, TBYH rules! Quietly but strongly to $8 we go!

[Michael]

Hi Raspi,

I am glad you are having a blast with TBYH. I am not in the stock right now but it is certainly on my watch list!

If you are still holding I assume that you have seen the Brean Murray Coverage this week:

initiates Buy. Target $7. Brean Murray initiates TBYH with a Buy and sets a $7 tgt, based on their expansion to three chipset platforms and into fast, growing emerging markets in Latin America and Asia, which should drive superior growth to those of its direct competitors.

To have one of the larger analysts covering a small Chinese design house tells about the qualities of this company!

[Fré]

Investors really need good nerves for holding this stock, but with another 30-40% growth for 2008 this stock is really undervalued at a p/e of 7.

[Michael]

Investors really need good nerves for holding this stock, but with another 30-40% growth for 2008 this stock is really undervalued at a p/e of 7.

T-Bay for sure has required some good nerves the last couple of weeks 

I have moved the stock from my watch list to my "this is too cheap" list.

The earnings report for Q1 was not stellar but pretty good with a 56% year over year increase in revenue.

One issue that continues to hunt the stock is however cash collection.  Accounts receivables for the last quarter was 22.5 million USD compared to quarterly revenue of 6 million USD and to add to the concern the company wrote off 1 million USD as bad debt in the quarter.

The slow cash collection seems to be because their agreements with handset manufacturers requires the manufacturer to pay royalties when the handsets designed by T-bay is actually sold and the revenue collected.

As said this is not a new problem for the company and in these cases it can be a good idea to look at the cash flow. T-Bay has 16.4 million USD in operational cash flow during the last 12 months, This mean that the P/CF is 3.9.

If a PE of 7 is cheap then a P/CF of 3.9 is a steal.

Hmmm I am talking myself into buying the stock   

[la-onda]

just fyi  :
TBYH Expects Revenue Growth of 30-40% in FY07-08
Thursday , July 26, 2007 09:00ET

SHANGHAI, China, July 26 /Xinhua-PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- T-Bay Holdings Inc. (OTC Bulletin Board: TBYH) today announced that for fiscal year 07-08, it expects the revenue growth in the range of 30%-40%, and net profit growth of 20-30%. The Company anticipates growth would be mainly attributed to additional design solutions it expects to introduce in the market, the continued strong performance of our existing customers and planned new projects including 3G products.
The Company plans to release more than 30 total design solutions based on 4 chipset platforms in fiscal year 07-08, compared to 21 solutions based on one platform in fiscal year 06-07. This represents an anticipated 42.9% growth, and should enable the company to provide solutions covering high-end, mid-end and low-end markets.

Mr. Xiaofeng Li, the CEO of T-Bay said, "Our partnership with MTK, VIA, ANYKA, INFINEON, SKYWORKS has broadened our product lines. For the last fiscal year, we have made considerable investment in upgrading our equipment to improve our R&D capacity. We intend to continuously introduce new solutions with the world's most advanced technologies.''

''Another driver of revenue growth is from our existing customers. Currently, we have about 50 customers, most of whom performed well in the past few months. Based on the volume of purchase orders from our customers, we believe some of our big customers are gaining more market share,'' Mr. Li added. ''We have a diversified customer base which includes mobile handset manufacturers, brand name owners and distributors. We also expect to cooperate with telecom operators in the foreseeable future.''

"In addition, we expect new projects, including the RF design project, 3G extended products, as well as our new Fujian plant, will bring additional revenue from Q3 this year,'' Mr. Li said. ''We successfully achieved 38% growth in revenue with 21% growth in net profit for FY06-07, and we expect another good year with revenue growth of 30-40% and net profit growth of 20- 30%.''