ELN - Sector: Healthcare - Industry: Biotechnology & Drugs

[Tirebldr]

Am I correct in assuming there is a strong resistance at that gap at at $9.75?
If it ever busted that resistance, what's the chance of it surging to the top of the gap at $26.75?  Good question for those who can figure it all out. Is the pullback (if there is one)  a good time to buy in and continue to wait?

[phabrux]

ELN is not far from the support line

and could rebound very quickly IMHO!

[Melf Elf]

ELN is not far from the support line

and could rebound very quickly IMHO!

Thanks for the alert.  Applause.

If it weren't for the fact that ELN gaps around on news about Tysabri, I'd rate this as a very high confidence, low-risk trade.  However, we know that this stock is at higher risk for a gap down than usual.

That said, barring a gap down, the chart is shaping up very nicely for a rally.   For a stop, I'd use any convincing close below the up trendline off the March 31 low. Buyers repeatedly have stepped up to the plate any time the stock goes near the up trendline off that low, including the black candle on Friday.

If on Monday, for example, we get a bullish hammer with a close right near the up trendline, say 7.88...7.89...7.90...7.91...I wouldn't be convinced that it's a sell.  But, if Monday is a black candle that closes near the low of the day, and closes below the up trendline (for Monday, it comes in at 7.917), I UNFAILINGLY would sell it.

The chart is telling us that the up trendline has been validated THREE TIMES as support.  If that's no longer the case, I'd get out of there.  Sell.

What I'd like to see on Monday, is for the stock to head down agian in the morning toward the up trendline at 7.91, then close higher.  Or, a just a little bit lower, with a bullish hammer.  Something like that.

Good luck to anyone who trades it, and to those already in it.  ELN is on my watch list for Monday.

[phabrux]

Melf_Elf thanks for the precision

in this analysis.

Applause.

[goldieboox56]

Ready to roll. CEO says Tysabri will be back by the end of summer. Similar to EYET only much better.

[goldieboox56]

I also think BIDU and NTES are going to do well this week.

[oicpecnoc]

Unless someone dies from PML.  A possibility one cannot rule out.  Yes, all drugs run this risk, but this one is higher because it has already happened MULTIPLE times.  I get a long term risk/reward investment, but I have always thought the "trading" rewards on this stock are outweighed by the potential risk/loss.  When a PML death occurs, try to get a sell order filled.  Not easy.

[goldieboox56]

Tysabri was not the cause of PML. Avonex in combo or alone is the cause. I saw 100,000 and 200,000 buys on Thursday and Friday. Buy out is a strong possibility.

[422fwhp]

Hey Goldie!

There is a main thread for ELN (link below)
http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?topic=1660.msg18144#msg18144

I just posted some recent news.  Please comment.

Jody

[goldieboox56]

If it goes down buy more, if it goes up buy more. Tysabri is coming back very soon.

[goldieboox56]

DJ ) 09/01 01:51AM DJ Biogen Idec To Seek Stronger Warning Label For MS Drug
CAMBRIDGE, Mass. (AP)--Biogen Idec Inc. will ask federal regulators to allow
it to resume sales of a multiple sclerosis drug linked to a brain disease with
additional warning labels, the company's CEO said in an interview.
James Mullen said Wednesday that Biogen Idec will likely recommend that
Tysabri include warnings about three cases of an often-fatal brain disease
that were confirmed after clinical trials of the drug, which was withdrawn
from the market Feb. 28 despite hopes that it would become an important new
tool in treating MS.
Mullen said the revised label that the company will propose to the U.S. Food
and Drug Administration also will warn about risks for patients who have weak
immune systems and therefore could be more susceptible to contracting the
disease, called progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML.
However, Mullen said the label language his company will suggest to FDA when
it seeks permission to resume marketing Tysabri will acknowledge that
scientists don't yet understand precisely how the bioengineered drug put the
three patients who contracted PML at risk of contracting the rare disease. Two
of those patients died.
"I think it's important for us to not overstate what we know," Mullen,
Biogen Idec's chief executive and president, said in an interview with The
Associated Press at the company's Cambridge headquarters. "We want to be
concrete about what we know and what we don't know."
Mullen said Biogen Idec and its Irish partner on Tysabri, Elan Corp., plan
to submit findings from their review of the drug's safety to the FDA by the
end of September.
The companies had previously said the report would be submitted sometime in
the fall so the FDA could review whether Tysabri can safely return to the
market. Some industry analysts have said strong warnings on Tysabri's label
could ruin the drug's chances of becoming a commercial success.
Mullen said it is "highly unlikely" the FDA will complete its own review by
year's end, but he said the regulators are "interested in a thorough but
expeditious review of determining whether this can brought back to the market
in the near future or not."
FDA spokeswoman Lenore Gelb declined to comment Wednesday.
Biogen Idec and Elan said Aug. 9 that more than 2,000 patients with multiple
sclerosis who took Tysabri in clinical trials had been screened for PML as
part of the companies' safety review, but no new cases were found.
The companies are close to finishing a similar review of about 1,500 people
who took Tysabri in clinical trials to test its effectiveness in treating
Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis.
After reviewing one year of data from planned two-year trials, federal
regulators in November approved Tysabri for sale to the 350,000 American
sufferers of MS, a debilitating and incurable disease in which the body's
immune system turns rebellious, attacking, inflaming and damaging its own
nerve tissue.
The drug was withdrawn about three months after its approval, causing Biogen
shares to plunge more than 42% the day of the announcement while Elan's stock
fell 70%.
"We hope there is a pathway back to the market," Mullen said. "We think that
unless we see some new surprises, that the risk-benefit profile for this
product certainly warrants it being used for MS.
"We've got probably hundreds of letters from patients saying, 'Tysabri
changed my life. I've got no other options. I'll sign whatever waiver I need
to get access to this product."'

[goldieboox56]

Biogen Idec (nasdaq: BIIB - news - people ) said it will cut its workforce by 17% by the end of the year; that means some 650 workers will be chopped worldwide in order to save $200 million to $300 million in expenses. The biotechnology firm expects to take a pre-tax charge of between $30 million to $40 million related to severance and associated staff restructuring costs. Biogen Idec and partner Elan (nyse: ELN - news - people ) halted sales of multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri last February after reports of a rare and potentially fatal central nervous system disease in patients. Data related to a completed safety review for Tysabri is expected to be handed over to the FDA by Sept. 21.

[goldieboox56]

May be a big week for ELN if the data goes through. It could get bought out just as well at this low price.

[rocket8]

there is an ELN thread already but i guess i will post here.
these threads are sometimes confusing.
do u post on an old thread that might be long but has died months ago or do you start a fresh new thread ?
problems exist both ways...

anyway....

ELN looks good.  what do you think about resistance?  where do you see resistance?

-rocket8

[rocket8]

September 21, 2005
Move to Reinstate Multiple Sclerosis Drug

Biogen Idec Inc. and the Elan Corporation said yesterday that they would seek federal regulatory approval to resume sales of the withdrawn Tysabri drug for multiple sclerosis.

A safety evaluation of the drug for use against Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis will be completed "in the coming weeks," the companies said in a joint statement.

They said that they completed a safety evaluation of the drug for use in multiple sclerosis patients in August.

Biogen, which is based in Cambridge, Mass., and Elan, which is based in Ireland, withdrew Tysabri from the market Feb. 28 after three patients developed a rare neurological disease.