OMNI

[Melf Elf]

Oh and one more thing, when we talk about trend trading, its always worth having a look at the long term charts.  Below is the 1 yr daily and the 2 yr weekly semi-log charts.  The long term trend for OMNI is clearly up.

Scotsman,

You've now got me obsessing on OMNI.  I've been studying it for about 2 hours. 

That semi-log chart is so-o interesting.

In fact, if the 2 year chart was a daily chart, I'd be all over that 7.20 bounce off MAJOR long term support. 

I'll tell you what else we're definitely going to be all over, is if ever we see anything get printed that is remotely close to the H&S Top target of 5.56 that is IN PLAY here in the daily chart (currently ON HOLD, as long as OMNI trades above 8.68). 

You'll see why in the next post, on your weekly semi-log chart.

Meanwhile, shorter-term, you've got the possibility of a Bullish Inverse H&S breakout above the 9.18 - 9.19 neckline, as you are aware.  Both shoulders are "skimpy," (not very wide) though, so it's a weak pattern, but as long as 8.68 - 8.70 holds up, it's got a chance. 

It needs to do it almost immediately, though, because a Right Shoulder shouldn't be wider than the Left Shoulder, and they'll be about equal today (three days of trading in each shoulder). 

If OMNI doesn't knock out that 9.18 - 9.19 neckline by tomorrow, the Bullish Inverse H&S probably isn't what's going on. 

Both charts suggest that the last 6 months or so have been a consolidation of the previous 18 months enormous gains ( I remember trading OMNI badly last October 05 when it was trading between $2 and $4).  The 1 year chart looks like OMNI has spent the last 6 months buliding a large symmetrical triangle.

Right. 

Putting it in this perspective, the real test will be around $11.

Right.

If it breaks out above this level, and then above $12, it should start a major run well into the mid to high teens.

Right.

If they earn .96 this year (pretty likely), an industry average P/E of 16.6 would mean a fair value of $15.95 per share.  A solid earnings announcement could get us well on the way to this level.

Thanks for that work on the fundamentals.

And finally, my apologies for so many charts, I think I got a bit carried away....

If you had a scroll bar, like I do, it would be difficult to view more than one chart per post, but yours were great!  Very easy to read.

Okay, I can't wait to show you the semi-log chart, and to tell you why we're going to do a "'Mon back" if ever we see 5.56, or anything close to that, get printed.

 

[Melf Elf]

Scotsman,

1. Why can't today be April 6. 2006, when OMNI broke out above 4.94 ... 4.98 ... 4.94, and into the 5.00s? 

CURSES!!   

2. You're quite right about this being a Symmetrical Triangle since July, 2006, and given  that the breakout above 4.94 - 4.98 was out of a solid 1½ year base, we should be thinking "bullish continuation pattern."

3. Within this Symmetrical Triangle, we've had a bunch of other patterns in the Daily Chart. 

a. The Double Top that put 6.54 IN PLAY, which MADE within nine cents.  The low was 6.63.

b. The Bear Flag that put 8.10 IN PLAY and 7.12 IN PLAY.  Both targets MADE.

c. The Bullish Wolfe Wave off the "Double Fakeout"  at the September low.  The Target MADE October 21.

d. The H&S Top that broke January 3, below 9.72 - 9.73 neckline.  The 7.65 target MADE.  The low was 7.20.

e. The larger H&S Top (with No Right Shoulder) that broke below 8.68 - 8.70, that put 5.56 IN PLAY.

Given all of that morphing within the context of this Symmetrical Triangle (in green) on the weekly chart, "what if" 5.56 gets MADE? 

What does that do to the WEEKLY chart, and to the longer-term trend?   

It would cause the Symmetrical Triangle to morph into a Bull Flag, and 5.56 would be an exact .618 Fibonacci Retracement of the rally from 1.21 to 12.60.

If that should eventuate, and if 5.56 holds, the longer-term trend still is bullish since it would be well above the 4.94-4.98 breakout.

If that should eventuate, we're also backing up the truck at 5.56. 

[joet]

Great work Melf and Scottishtrader!!  Applaud both!!
So melf, if 9.18 does not get made soon would you tempt the short for some downside target?!?!  Seems risky with the solid fundimentals, and the energy sector picking up, but we are due for some sort of correction it seems... Hmmm  Will keep watching.
Cheers Joe

[ScottishTrader]

Melf was talking about a potential weak inverse H&S on OMNI, which is a possibility here.

What I see is a break of the recent ascending trendline that has been supporting this move from 7.20.  This has morphed into a (a)symmetric triangle consolidation.  I think today we sould find out which way OMNI wants to go, as it breaks out of this triangle one way or the other.  Tragets for the triangle would eiher be 8.40 to the downside or 9.30 to the upside.

Make you mind up time OMNI....

[ScottishTrader]

Well OMNI didn't really do much yesterday, but today it did.  Broke the descending triangle to the upside and pushed back up to that 9.17-9.20 resistance, forming a small ascending triangle on the intraday.  I was a little disappointed that it couldn't do it today, but OMNI looks set to break above 9.20 next week.

Looks like its putting in your right shoulder Melf. 

[Melf Elf]

Well OMNI didn't really do much yesterday, but today it did.  Broke the descending triangle to the upside and pushed back up to that 9.17-9.20 resistance, forming a small ascending triangle on the intraday.  I was a little disappointed that it couldn't do it today, but OMNI looks set to break above 9.20 next week.

Scotsman,

Right.

What I very much like about that little Ascending Triangle, is that after the "straight-up" rally from 7.20 to 9.19, OMNI stopped both to take a breather, and to form your little Ascending Triangle pattern, before mounting an assault above  next resistance, at 9.18...9.19...9.20.

It would seem that the trading range is so tightly compressed, between 8.77 and 9.20, because:

1. It didn't want to break back below KEY 8.68 - 8.70 ("Former resistance has become support"), which would have looked lousy.

2. It needed to build some strength, before taking out this next resistance at 9.18...9.19...9.20.

Looks like its putting in your right shoulder Melf. 

It did for awhile, but I think we have to throw that out the window because this Right Shoulder now is of five days' duration, and the Left Shoulder was only of three days' duration.

The Right Shoulder should be narrower in width, or equal in width, to the Left Shoulder.  Preferably, narrower.

No, I think it's your Ascending Triangle.  A breakout above it would put 9.19 IN PLAY.

EDIT: 9.61 IN PLAY
Math for the Ascending Triangle:

9.19 - (I always use the more consevative of the 9.19 and 9.20 highs, but it's fine to 

use 9.20.  I don't like to over-estimate)

8.77 - low

9.19 - 8.77 = 0.42 Points + 9.19 = Target: 9.61.

On the way to 9.61, though, there's resistance at the 50DMA, currently at 9.456, and this is a rally against a 3-month top, so you might want to keep that in mind.

Rallies against the trend are less likely to get MADE.

Good luck! I hope that you get the breakout.  You're doing a very nice job with this.  Applause.

[setravis]

"OMNI" Threads have been Merged.
Please use the search before starting new threads on a Stock Pick.
Chances are a thread already exist.
So why not post whatever you have to comment about on that pick to that thread.
"Simplicity" My fellow traders.                              
All history on a stock pick in 1 thread is awesome.                            
Just trying to get threads together,so we don't have a numerous amount floating around on the same stock.        
Thank You....and good luck with all your trades....make some $$$              

[ScottishTrader]

OMNI still chomping at the bit to make that break of 9.18-20 resistance.  I can feel it coming...  This afternoon's trading felt like it was just being held back, in fact it closed at 9.33 after hours.  Tomorrow we'll see if OMNI has legs to get going.

[ScottishTrader]

Well, OMNI jumped up above that resistance on Wednesday, but the strength just wasn't there, and it spent the rest of the day (and yesterday) acting very weak, before a capitulation spike low yesterday, all the way down to 8.57.  I'm not sure but it felt a bit like MM running the stops on a low volume day (in the end volume was actually ot so low).  My stop got nailed at 8.64, for a 6.6% gain on the trade.  Bummer.  OMNI rallied in the afternoon to put in a hammer on the daily chart, but I still was disappointed to see such weak action after it was chomping to break out earlier in the week.  Looks like I'm gonna have to watch this one from the sidelines for now, although if we get that breakout above 9.20, I may look for a re-entry.  I still like OMNI fundamentally and think we should see some positive movement over the coming months.

[ScottishTrader]

I haven't updated on OMNI in a little while, but as per a request here is my current take:

After that little upside fakeout above 9.20 resistance, OMNI sold off finally finding support at 8.15, which was gap support from early January.  Unfortunately I missid this very nice buying opportunity as I was out of the country, but hey, you can't catch them all.  On Monday, OMNI made a key breakout above 9.20 resistance and looked all set to go.  My target on that ascending triangle breakout would have been 11.20.  However, yesterday's market crash pulled OMNI back and put that breakout on hold, as OMNI closed back below 9.20.  Right now its really quite hard to decide what to do.  I still think that OMNI is in a bullish position, and it *wants* to break out, but if the whole market starts sinking, it will take everything with it, breakout candidates and all.  Still, OMNI did not exhibit the kind of sell-off a lot od other stocks witnessed, and the pattern still looks good.

I think I would see this sell-off as a buying opportunity here, and if I can snatch some around 8.60 I would.  However, with a second day of general market bearishness looming, anything could happen, but it would be nice if OMNI didn't break down out of the ascending pattern.

[ScottishTrader]

bought OMNI @ 8.95 this morning.  Boy does it feel dangerous to be buying stocks given the current market situation, but overall, the market appears steady right now, and OMNI made a nice little rally after that early dip.  Currently BID 9.15 ASK 9.17

[ScottishTrader]

Well in case anybody missed it (or is even interested - I seem to be the only on here who likes this stock  )  OMNI made a major break out today, after providing very strong guidance for 07:

Revenues Expected to Increase More Than 80% and Reach $175 Million; Excluding Tax Benefits, Net Income May Increase 70% to Exceed $17 Million; EBITDA Could Increase More Than 60% to Exceed $40 Million

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070308/dath027.html?.v=90

This looks to be the beginning of what I had anticipated as a major move in this stock.  As I mentioned, I bought back in last week at 8.95, and added some more when it pulled back to 8.50 (giving me an average entry of 8.80 for this trade).  Earnings should be out next week, and they have already given a fairly good indication of what they are going to look like.  What will be very interesting to see is whether OMNI can break out of the symmetrical it has formed since June of last year that can be seen on the 1 year chart.  I put the symmetrical triangle resistance coming in at $11, and with a $6 range, would put a target of $17 in play.  Right now I anticipate holding onto this one for a while and letting this pattern play out.  I wouldn't be surprised to see it hit $11 next week.

[Holygrale]

Scottish...........your not alone.   

This is looking good, have played this one many times before, will look for entry possibly the next 2 days.................

[fous]

Mr Fous eyeing this one as well. Applauds on keeping up with this scottish

I traded this last june, entered around $7 price went to $9, jumped all over the place and i get stopped out in the high 7's. week later it sky rockets above $12. Man that was annoying. OMNI owes me money and i intend to get payback someday 

[ScottishTrader]

In case you're interested in why the 07 net income numbers seem low, this thread from yahoo does a good job to explain:

http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_%28A_to_Z%29/Stocks_O/threadview?m=te&bn=13352&tid=66532&mid=66532&tof=7&frt=2#66532