BBCZ.PK

[Melf Elf]

Forgot to post the chart. 

I've been think about a bullish scenario.  See next post.

[Melf Elf]

Bullish Scenario:

1. The Gap Up Island Reversal, back into the Channel, looks bullish.

2. We have a flat top in place for an Ascending Triangle, at 10.82 - 10.80

3. Now go down and re-test the bottom of the channel that was broken, and establish that, "Yes, it's support this time," while at the same time, establishing a "higher low" for the ascending line of the Ascending Triangle.

4. Go up and knock out 10.82- 10.80, putting Target: 13.20 IN PLAY.

Math:

High: 10.80 (I always use the more conservative of the two highs

Low: 8.40

10.80 - 8.40 = 2.40 points, added to 10.80 = Target: 13.20

Then continue to act bullish...bullish...bullish 

[Melf Elf]

If it isn't support, BBC likely is in for a re-test of the bottom of the channel, which comes in today at about 9.33.    Also bullish if it can hold that this time, and if BBC can then knock out 10.80-10.82 DOUBLE resistance.

Bought BBC at 9.35, on the channel re-test.  The low so far this morning is 9.33 exactly. Hopefully, that will hold

[AussieTrader]

Hey Melf, nice analysis as always. Coincidentally I had similar entry plan and in fact have taken a position today around $9.50. The prior move got capped at the 50sma and this pullback on lower volume is nice and as you say will confirm the new resistance / support change.
The fundamental soundness of BBC is great, and sooner or later that will get rewarded in the stock price. If it doesn't then I'll stop out as per my trade plan.

[Melf Elf]

Coincidentally I had similar entry plan and in fact have taken a position today around $9.50.

Aussie,

Coincidentally ?    

Did you notice that our posts both hit at 10:13:51AM exactly, and that we both were posting that we bought it?

doo doo doo doo...doo doo doo doo....   

Good luck, buddy!

[AussieTrader]

LOL, damn it now I have to average down as you got a better entry than me

That is kinda spooky hey. Where is Mulder and Scully when you need them, well Scully for sure, Mulder can stay at home, I think Scully can handle it.

Well after that collective back slapping lets hope BBC does what it should.

Good Trading

[usedcasting]

I've decided to throw my shoe into the ring on this one too. Hopefully third time lucky on earnings momentum. It is very oversold so hopefully we can catch a break. Thanks for your reviews Melf and Aussie, great stuff, cheers.

uc.

[Melf Elf]

Well after that collective back slapping lets hope BBC does what it should.

Aussie,

So far it is.  

It's held the bottom of the channel, at 9.33, twice more, at 11:30 and 11:31 AM.  I'd really like to see that hold on this selloff.  If it doesn't, we might have to fill that gap. 

I'll hold unless we take out 8.11.

I've decided to throw my shoe into the ring on this one too.

uc,

Great!  Good luck!

Hopefully third time lucky on earnings momentum.

Amen! 

I'll have to grow some fingernails so I have something to bite on release of earnings. 

[Se7en]

I'm with you guys, bought some BBC @ 9.36$.

[usedcasting]

Ok, we have had our full retreat (9.33), now lets get it on!

Currently Bid 9.46 

uc.

[Melf Elf]

Ok, we have had our full retreat (9.33), now lets get it on!

uc,

The 9.33 held.     

While we can't expect exactitude from TA, it's mighty nice when we get it, or get close to it.

About this channel:

We can connect any two data points and call that a trendline, but we haven't any idea whether or not it's valid unless we get confirmation of that from the market. 

Let's look at the bottom of our channel, connected by Blue #2 and Blue #4.

1. It broke on a Gap Down on September 29.  The gap below it suggested that it was valid, but we still had only two data points, so we weren't quite sure.

2. On the rally back to the channel the data points were:

9.7596 on October 4 (white candle).  High on the day: 9.74 , two cents below it.

9.7236 on October 5 (black candle). High on the day: 9.71 , a penny below it.

BBC subsequently sold off to the 8.40 low, which was when I posted that I like this stock fundamentally, but that I didn't like the technicals.  That failure right below the channel was a vailidation of these two things:

"Yes, the break of the channel on the gap down was meaningful, technically, and No, the stock isn't getting back through it on a re-test!"  UGH...

Aussie then posted the rally back into the channel.  Hmm-mm....interesting.  Does that mean that the channel break was meaningless?  No.  We already know that the channel was validated on the two failures, October 4 and October 5, so it was meaningful alright.

So, the channel breakdown probably means:

A. It was downside Bear Trap fakeout, and the stock would continue higher (Nope)

B. That the 9.74 failure high would get re-tested, and hold (Nope)

C. That the bottom of the channel would get re-tested

Answer: Yep...C ...re-test of the bottom of the channel, which came in on Friday at 9.32712.  Low on the day: 9.33.

That's a THIRD validation, that the bottom of the channel is meaningful.  October 4 and 5 were the first two validations, on the two failures to regain it.

"If" the bottom of the channel holds, and BBC rallies, we'll have:

Bull Move #1 - Bullish Island Reversal

Bull Move #2 - Regaining the broken channel, and an Ascending Triangle set-up at 10.82 - 10.80.

Bull Move #3 - A successful re-test of the bottom of the broken channel, and validation of the fact that it is support this time.

As a trader, I normally would sell a meaningful break of this channel because that represents some technical damage, and we'll likely test the gap (8.66-8.77) and who knows what else on the downside.

But as I said in earlier posts, BBC is pretty illiquid (although volume has picked up qute a bit lately), so I'm not going to trade it, but rather, hold unless 8.11 gets broken, because of the good fundamentals. (Exception: I'd sell if, for example, the stock gapped down big on bad news and on heavy volume...UGH...I'd sell). 

Out of character for me to give this much consideration to fundamentals, but I like this stock's chances.  I like the improvement in the technicals, and I'm willing to take the risk, even if this channel fails to hold. 

Data points next week for the bottom of the channel:

October 23 - 9.2901
October 24 - 9.2504
October 25 - 9.2144
October 26 - 9.1783
October 27 - 9.1423

A violation by a penny or three is fine.  We can't expect exactitude.  But, we'd want to see it reverse higher off a violation, and not CLOSE below the channel.

I'm with you guys, bought some BBC @ 9.36$.

Good luck to all of us, Se7en! 

[usedcasting]

We need volume and I think we just may get it. Hopefully!
Up 6%

uc.

[Se7en]

BBC came back down today ... 

[Melf Elf]

BBC came back down today ...

uc and Se7en,

We've got a lot of ANGRY Bulls, who:

1. Didn't get out before the Crash

2. Didn't sell the broken neckline re-test on TRIPLE earnings, in May

3. Didn't sell DOUBLE earnings in August

We  can't blame them.  They're bagholders, and many of them have big paper losses.  And, they're using any rally to sell.

October 23 - 9.2901
October 24 - 9.2504
October 25 - 9.2144
October 26 - 9.1783
October 27 - 9.1423

We violated channel support, intraday...

...but, it held above it, at the close.

I'm out of my element as a trader, playing this "longer-term...based on fundamentals," yet based the improved technicals.  I very likely will get spanked for doing this, so please be aware of that.

I'm going to have a difficult time NOT pressing the SELL buzzer, if we CLOSE below the channel.

I committed to this "offbeat" trade at the outset, however, and I will stay, as long as 8.11 doesn't get broken.

Stupid of me, I admit, to "like" a stock, which is completely against my nature, as a trader.

I plain "like" this one.

We need a "STOOPID Face" on the toolbar.   

[Se7en]

Looks like BBC is basing here around 9.10-9.20, preparing itself for the next leg up?!