SHORT THREAD!

[joet]

Bearish Abandoned Baby  ZMH

Yipeee a short boat has come in for me..  maybe make up some AAPL loss, which is also looking bearish today...

[nullzero]

ZMH was downgraded today... It just gapped down in the 63.00s. Already down more then -2%  .

[joet]

Thinking that if AAPL fill the small gap up to 68.16 it could be a good short entry... it fiilled, and still going up

Melf we posted together about ZMH  lets see if that gap fills?  significance if it does or does not?

Cheers Joe

[Melf Elf]

Melf we posted together about ZMH  lets see if that gap fills?

Joe,

ZMH is moving higher toward the gap, now at 65.00  Hopefully, it won't fill the 65.30 gap,l and go back down.

significance if it does or does not?

It looks like at least a short-term top has been put in, in either case.

[joet]

AAPL has some incredible strength...  just when i thought it was rolling over for a day or so it is up over $1 now 69.20,  Mid 69's should be resisance for a pull back, but my predictions about AAPL since the big gap up have been all backwards so I am playing that one on paper only for now (still have a small position on the short side)
Cheers Joe

[nullzero]

Im going to try to hang in there on AAPL, just when you think its not going to pullback it usually does. AAPL reminds me of HANS i shorted that a while ago covered with a 7% loss and then check back two weeks later I would of been up like 5-10% on my short.

[joet]

Mornin NULL, which way are you on AAPL... you posted that you may cover on the AAPL thread    and look at HANS now... Fun stuff this trading...  Shortstocks.com just shorted more???  tempting but will wait for 71 if that happens

PHM short just got stoped out with a small gain (protective stop may short again if it hits 30)

ZMH short is looking good from 65.7

cheers
Joe

[nullzero]

Im holding onto AAPL short, I made the same mistake with HANS a while back. Shortstocks.com is ran by a hedge fund I believe they have good leads on there shorts (I seem to think they know when downgrades or events are coming sometimes), if there shorting it more thats a good sign since there a hedge fund I believe. The bank of america upgrade the other day was just a cover to start dumping shares of AAPL for the big boys as well. AAPL is near very strong resistance at 70.00s I doubt it will break through if it does I will have to decide to hold or throw in the flag.

PHM short im holding dont be alarmed by this small gain today... DHI did the same for a while until it took an event to drive it down more. DHI which I shorted a while ago was trading at what seemed to be a bottom... was flat for a few weeks and actually went up like 2-3% from the trading range every so often. It finally gave way after a major news came out that it was slashing its earnings estimates. I think this month espically toward the mid to end of the month will give PHM a beating. Fed meeting... New Home Sales, TOL Q3 earnings. All those events have a high posssibility of sending PHM and the other HBs back to new 52wk lows.

ZMH short I like alot.. im going to hold and cover around 60 or a little lower. shortstocks.com has there cover target set at 58-60 I agree with there suggestion I believe that is a nice area to cover.

[nullzero]

AEOS looks good to enter now for short. This +8% jump on better then expected retail sales was way over done. If I had some funds able to short today on AEOS  I would do it now or around 34.

[joet]

ZMH  Melf... the baby was rescued    !?!?!? this morning it touched 65.78 and has retraced some but not looking week.  thoughts on how this pattern is shaping up?   Cheers joe

PHM  the home buiders are having a rally...

BRCD benefiting from AAPL decline.... short entry at top of channel here at 6.4 with a stop if it breaks above 6.55  (that is my trade on paper this AM)

AKAM and AEOS both apear to be over bought and continue up this AM watching for possible short entry

"Winning trades are profitable from the start." (paraphrased) Thanx Melf   (applauded)


Cheers Joe

[Melf Elf]

ZMH  Melf... the baby was rescued 

Joe,

Yeah, that's good.  I hate to see a baby get abandoned.    

it touched 65.78 and has retraced some but not looking week.  thoughts on how this pattern is shaping up? 

Nothing to add.  It's rallying this morning, along with the general market.  Our stop doesn't look to be in jeopardy, at least not yet. 

BRCD benefiting from AAPL decline.... short entry at top of channel here at 6.4 with a stop if it breaks above 6.55  (that is my trade on paper this AM)

I've favored the Bulls in BRCD. 

Even though the company has the same "options probe"  and re-statement of earnings issue as AAPL, it's held up very well, and has shown good relative strength.

But, I couldn't find a good re-entry long into BRCD.  Last night, I was studying the chart, and realized that I needed to do a pattern re-draw.  I'll show you the  "redrawn" chart in the BRCD folder. 

[nullzero]

I didnt cover my PHM I thought it was very wierd how it gapped up today. It was a attempt to squeeze out shorts... It didnt squeeze me out... Also today HOV (Hovnanian) another HB just slashed its earnings outlook again! Hold onto the HBs shorts you will be rewarded . Im about -4% now in PHM since it gapped up and then declined rapidly. Im sure by next week I will be up on the PHM trade. ZMH may hit the resistance at 66.60 and fall back down.... I dont think ZMH is going to run much more espically with how the market is over extended.

[nullzero]

Here is a potentially good short GRMN (Garmin).

Some info

Market Cap: 9.40B
P/E (ttm): 23.64
EPS (ttm): 3.67

Shares Short 7,838,650 
Days to Cover (Short Ratio) 4.1 
Short % of Float 12.60 %
Shares Short - Prior 6,494,450 
Short % Increase / Decrease 20.70 %

as of july 2006

Fundamentals look good but this downward trend seems to be pushed by longs looking to take profits and exit, shorts are also jumping in at full force. GRMN would make a good cover around 75-77, more then likely it will pullback to at least its 200dma on the way the chart looks. Longs seem to be panicing. The earnings were good, but it seemed to be a sell on news situation that started august 2nd when earnings were released.

[Terliso]

RIG (short?)  

Showing a bearish pattern but this stock is in a bullish industry since 2002 (Oil & Gas)
Might not be a good one for shorting

[Melf Elf]

RIG (short?)  

Showing a bearish pattern but this stock is in a bullish industry since 2002 (Oil & Gas)
Might not be a good one for shorting

Alister,

Very good.   It looks way-y too obvious as a short, and I understand your fundamental concern.  Maybe it's telegraphing something 

Weekly volume on the break of the H&S top was the second heaviest in 10 years (that's as far as my charts go back).  The heaviest volume in 10 years was February 17, on the selloff to the first data point on the neckline (70.05).  That suggests confirmation of the break.

The 70.08 close, however, a hair above that 70.05, has me thinking a re-test of the broken neckline next week, and possibly a rally back inside the pattern to fill the 77.02 gap near the 50DMA.

Interesting find.  Applause.  You might want to start a folder on RIG so we can follow it.  I couldn't find one.

EDIT: I typed the target wrong on the chart.  It should be 51.40, not 50.40.