DRYS

[dmxbr9]

i would have to agree with you strongly....AMEN!

[Terliso]

Man, what an awesome run for DRYS..  

It breakout a year ago and never look back.....wheew!!

[la-onda]

DryShips, Inc. (DRYS) engages in the ownership and operation of drybulk carriers worldwide. The company's fleet carries various drybulk commodities, including coal, iron ore, and grains, bauxite, phosphate, fertilizers, and steel products.

As of August 6, 2007, it owned and operated a fleet of 35 drybulk carriers comprising 5 Capesize, 27 Panamax, 1 Handymax, and 2 newbuilding Panamax vessels with a combined deadweight tonnage of approximately 3 million. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Athens, Greece.

The company said this week it agreed to purchase a 2001-built Capesize vessel for $152.3 million, and plans to sell a 1993-built carrier. The 172,579 deadweight-ton vessel will be delivered to DryShips during the second quarter of next year, and has not yet been contracted.

DryShips also agreed to sell a 149,475 deadweight-ton Capesize carrier for $93.9 million. The company expects a net profit of $62.2 million. Delivery is expected in the first quarter of 2008. Capesize vessels carry cargo including iron ore and coal and generally weigh more than 150,000 deadweight tons. They are too big for the Panama and Suez canals and must instead sail around the Cape of Good Hope or Cape Horn to travel between oceans.

In early-November, the company said that third-quarter earnings came in ahead of expectations due to soaring charter rates for its vessels. The company earned $103.5 million, or $2.38 per share, compared with $3.5 million, or 11 cents per share, in the year-ago quarter. Analysts expected $2.34 per share. Voyage revenue more than doubled to $150 million from $60 million in the prior-year period.

"We are pleased to report a third consecutive quarter with record EBITDA reflecting the strength of the current drybulk market. We continue to actively manage our fleet portfolio with a goal to ensure the longevity and quality of our fleet's earning capacity. Once the recently announced sale and purchase activity has been completed by the second quarter of 2008, the Company's fleet will consist of a total of 46 vessels (including 8 newbuildings) with an average age of 8.5 years, well below the industry average of about 13 years."

Regarding the outlook, the CEO said, "The outlook for 2008 remains positive. We will have approximately 16% more fleet operating days compared to 2007 and approximately 85% of the fleet operating days unfixed. With overall debt leverage of just below 25% adjusted for the market values of its vessels, DryShips is in a unique position to seek growth opportunities as they arise."

Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared $1.86 to $8.93 per share. Analysts expect earnings to leap 95% next year. The stock is cheap at only 5x next year's estimates. The company has posted an average 7% surprise over the past four quarters.

[la-onda]

DRYS update, anybody invested yet ?

fyi:
1)
Zacks:
Value - DryShips, Inc. (Nasdaq: DRYS)

DryShips has been anything but dry for its shareholders. The stock has rocketed higher this year and with good reason. Despite the huge runup, the shares only trade for about 5x next year's estimates of $17.42 per share. Over the past 90 days, this year's earnings estimates have soared $1.86 to $8.93 per share. Analysts expect earnings to leap 95% next year.

2)
awesome slideshow:
http://www.irwebpage.com/dryships/files/dryspres111307.pdf

3) chart

[bjc]

Anybody taken a look at these stocks?  I want to take a position in some EXM, TBSI and DRYS leaps.  They are all at pretty good support levels.  Even if they break down I think they will be bought up quickly.  They all still have terrific fundamentals I just don't think things have gotten as bad as people think..

I'm thinking strike price about 50% above current price for all these stocks about 3-6 months out.  I anticipate a massive move in these stocks with some heavy short covering.

[422fwhp]

Dry Bulk CEO Forum -Update : Panel says they are 'extremely optimistic' looking into 2008... believes fundamentals are good for 2008, 2009, and beyond... says U.S. exporting of coal is some of the highest they have seen... expects India to continue to strengthen but perhaps not on the same level that China is increasing... seeing a delay in ships being sent out from 'well established'biggest risks to supply in 201 and 2011; could cause delays.

30-Jan-08 11:36 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel says projections made in 2004 for 2010 demand in the dry bulk business was surpassed in 2006, and they expect to see a surprising increase similar to the prior one again -Update :   

30-Jan-08 11:29 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel says they are looking for a strong 2008 in the dry bulk sector, but a particulary strong Q1, especially the end of Q1 -Update :   

30-Jan-08 11:27 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel says investors should not use the Baltic Dry Index to draw long-term conclusions.. it can be used for a short-term trading instrument though -Update :   

30-Jan-08 11:25 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel states Baltic Dry Index only reflects the spot market and is not a predictor of what the market is likely to do in the future -Update : Believes it has had more of a psychological effect on the market and does not reflect fundamentals.

30-Jan-08 11:22 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum -Update : Panel says higher oil is a 'blessing in disguise' for industry since they can transport more coal... says a U.S. slowdown would not have a huge effect on the industry... says the weakened dollar makes shifts in trading patterns; see an increase in exports from the U.S (especially coal and ag products); will see increased ton miles as a result of increased exports... seeing steel companies export out of U.S.; says infrastructure is inellastic (once a project starts it can not be stopped); says project business is 'absolutely booming throughout the world'; says projects are very important to dry bulk shippers... does not expect the subprime credit issues to have a big effect; says the only effect they have seen has been the effect that it has had on their stocks as the whole market is down... says deal announced yesterday (QMAR) shows that the financials are behind dry bulk shippers; huge vote of confidence on industry... notes interest rate cuts have allowed to borrow debt at cheaper rates... Individual dry bulk shipper names trading higher include TBSI +11.5%, DRYS +7.2%, EGLE +5.2%, DSX +4.9%, QMAR +4.5%, EXM +4.1%, PRGN +4.0%, NM +2.7%, GNK +1.9%, ULTR +1.6%.

30-Jan-08 11:12 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel says they believe the large correction in the dry bulk sector will reverse itself very shortly -Update :   

30-Jan-08 11:12 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Panel states that the best way to play the industry is to invest for the long term -Update :   

30-Jan-08 11:10 ET In Play Dry Bulk CEO Forum- Says that there has not been any fundamental change in dry bulk business : 

B.C

[la-onda]

Dry bulk CEOs bet on strong year despite recession fears
Thu Jan 31, 2008 7:36am EST

BANGALORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Demand for dry bulk shipments will remain strong this year despite a recent crash in freight rates, growing fears of a U.S. recession, a weak dollar and high oil prices, chief executives of four major dry bulk carriers said at an industry forum on Wednesday.

Demand from China and other emerging economies will offset falling freight rates, the CEOs of DryShips Inc (DRYS.O: Quote, Profile, Research), Star Bulk Carriers Corp SBLK.O, TBS International (TBSI.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Quintana Maritime Ltd (QMAR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) said at the Dry Bulk CEO Virtual Forum.

The Baltic Exchange's chief sea freight index for dry commodities .BADI, which monitors major trade routes for coal, iron ore, cement and soft commodities such as grain and sugar, lost about 47 percent, since hitting a life high of 11,039 in November last year.

George Economou of DryShips said the profitability would not be affected due to recent fall in freight rates.

"On average, a capesize vessel would be getting $90,000 a day and the expense is about $6,000 a day and there is a huge margin" he added.

Dry bulk freight rates had touched record highs last year, reaching $200,000 levels for capesize vessels, on strong demand from China and other emerging economies and also due to tight supply of vessels.

Quintana's Chief Executive Stamatis Molaris said Baltic Dry Freight Index is an indicator of spot rates only and does not reveal the future freight rate movements.

"It has nothing to do with the real and underlying fundamentals of our business in the long term and volatilities is also part of dry bulk business in the long term," he said.

Molaris also emphasized there is no change in the fundamentals and investors should not use the index to draw long-term conclusions but could use it as a short term trading instrument.

"The fundamentals are still good for 2008, 2009 and beyond and you will see new routes developing," Economou of DryShips said.

"Even if the U.S. economy slows down significantly we are not likely to see much effects in our business," Quintana's Molaris said at the conference organized by New York-based investor relations and financial communications firm Capital Link and Nasdaq International.

Besides recessionary fears, dry bulk freight rates have been hit this year by a lack of fresh cargo supply at two key global export centers and China's ongoing price negotiations for iron ore.

"The demand has been surprising us favourably in the past and we will see it again, said Chief Executive Akis Tsirigakis of Star Bulk.

OIL, DOLLAR AND SUB-PRIME

The belief that rising oil prices can eat into a shipper's margins was dispelled by Tsirigakis, who clarified that oil is not part of a shipper's cost structure.

"The oil costs are passed on to the charterers and is not part of our cost structure and hence it do not affect us," he said.

Joseph Royce of TBS International said he is continuing to see increasing exports, especially of coal and agricultural products, from the U.S., as they become cheaper due to a weaker dollar.

Royce also added that infrastructure development, which in turn propels demand for dry bulk commodities like iron ore and coal, would continue as project business is booming throughout the world.

Economou of DryShips said the sub-prime mortage-led credit crunch has not affected the companies' operations.

"The only way we are suffering from credit crunch is in the price of the stocks, which has been unnecessarily hurt.

"The fundamentals have not changed and deals are going to be there and you saw one announced yesterday," he said, refering to Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) $2.45 billion buyout of Quintana Maritime.

Quintana's Molaris said his company's sale to Excel Maritime is a huge confidence booster to the shipping market and that right projects will always be financed.

VESSEL SUPPLY

Dry bulk carriers have ordered more ships to meet the growing demand to ship dry bulk commodities to China, India and other emerging economies, which is expected to hit the seas in the next two to three years.

Molaris said the rise in the orderbook to build new ships was spurred by the booming demand and admitted he was sceptical about the rising supply of ships but added that shipyards are constrained with orders.

"We are currently experiencing delays in delivering ships on time from well established shipyards," he said. (Reporting by Sakthi Prasad in Bangalore; Editing by Jarshad Kakkrakandy)

[digdug42]

I like drys here as well. Hopefully it will stay above the 200 and break through the 50.

[=idFix=]

[=idFix=]