3SOF

Melf Elf · August 08, 2006, 09:37:26 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on August 08, 2006, 05:27:21 AM
i will cover remaining ½ position if phm shows more strength today by printing 31.45, a penny above yesterday's high, for ½% gain on the entire trade.

covered at 31.45.

nullzero · August 08, 2006, 10:43:37 AM

PHM showing weakness down -2% currently and it looks like its heading lower.

nullzero · August 08, 2006, 11:07:52 AM

PHM continuing its weakness into the FED meeting lets see what happens after the FED announces what it will do.

nullzero · August 08, 2006, 03:02:34 PM

PHM heading for new LODs as I type. I expect by the end of this month PHM should be trading at new 52wk lows. The FED news just confirmed that rates will most likely need to be raised in the future. PHM is currently down over -3.5% trading at 29.96.

nullzero · August 08, 2006, 05:42:38 PM

Nice day for the short side

. PHM closed at 30.00 down -3.51%

Here are some Important dates to note that may move PHM lower...

Aug 16 8:30am Building Permits
Aug 16 8:30am Housing Starts

Aug 22 XXXXX [TOL] Toll Brothers Q3 2006 Earnings Release

Aug 23 10:00am Existing Home Sales

Aug 24 10:00am New Home Sales

I expect that TOL's earnings, existing home sales, new home sales will slam the HBs stocks including PHM into the ground. The HBs love moving together all in the same direction. The week of 8/21 will be espically important for this short position. I believe the HBs will get slammed during this week but just incase I will set a generous stop on those days. I may cover this short position sometime during the week of 8/21 maybe friday depending where I am at on this short position.

Here is some extra bearish info on what to expect from TOL's earnings

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BD78FFF30%2DA7D6%2D4A08%2DADB5%2DF341A029043E%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo

nullzero · August 09, 2006, 10:31:40 AM

Covered PHM for about a 1.2% profit... PHM has been down over 10% the last 3 days on no news. Planning to re short closer to 30.

nullzero · August 24, 2006, 01:00:27 AM

The downside on Homebuilders continues, weaker then expected home sales data was released today and its not looking pretty! Keep shorting those Homebuilders on every bounce we have just started the real estate bubble burst I believe.

nutsterrt · August 24, 2006, 10:34:27 AM

Decided to short this at 28.85. The recent housing reports looked dismal, at best. Figured a day where the stock is up 3% for no good reason is a good place to short

nullzero · August 24, 2006, 12:12:07 PM

Nice entry today nutsterrt! I think we are going to continue the downside and make some new 52wk lows soon until we see any kind of strength on the upside bounce.

nullzero · August 29, 2006, 03:20:55 AM

The chart looks like PHM is ready to make a big move down. The moving averages are bunched together ready to make a move. Still looks like a good time to enter short on PHM , shorting as close to 30 would be a good risk reward with a cover at 28 or below.

joet · September 12, 2006, 04:57:10 PM

Time to look again. Nulz, your downside happened but support at 27.70 held and bounced hard. The Value in home builders may be getting some attention this week.

today it closed at or just above the channel top, and resistance at 31.27 on decent volume and a close at HOD! If 31.27 holds in the morning i see the first target at around 33.70 and hopefully the stronger resistance at 36.50 (that would be nice for longs!)

I think that i see an inverted H+S pattern trying to finish with that target of 36.50 being in play as the end of the H+S pattern that started on the big market down move May 11.

Anyone have thoughts on PHM. If it does not hold the up move the channel short trade should be in play with a target of 27.70

If i play it long 31.10 seems like a logical stop loss point

Cheers joe

nullzero · October 10, 2006, 02:24:57 PM

Time to reshort PHM? I reshorted today near 34... this bounce I believe is over.

Melf Elf · October 10, 2006, 02:51:18 PM

Quote from: nullzero on October 10, 2006, 02:24:57 PM
Time to reshort PHM? I reshorted today near 34... this bounce I believe is over.

nullz,

I was thinking of you this morning when PHM hit its 200 DMA, which also is the top of the channel off the 26.02 low.

34.4062 - was yesterday's 200 DMA

34.389 - is where the top of the channel comes in today.

34.41 - is today's high.

NOTE: A Falling Wedge is nested within the channel. The target of 34.22 MADE today.

Good luck with your short. It this channel gets taken out to the upside, you might want to cover.

Melf Elf · October 13, 2006, 08:47:41 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on October 10, 2006, 02:51:18 PM
It this channel gets taken out to the upside, you might want to cover.

nullz,

Be careful here, my friend.

PHM is back at the top of the channel (34.545 for today), it made a new high for the move by a penny yesterday, and it closed above its 200DMA.

Wall Street analysts seem to be getting behind the builders, citing that they're trading a only 1 times book value, which historically, has been a low in the sector with only a couple of exceptions.

Regardless of the fundamentals, this could run on the upside on a short squeeze and on new buyers coming in on the channel breakout, ala BRCD, APPL, ZMH, etc.

Good luck! I hope it sells off right here for you.

nullzero · October 13, 2006, 04:04:13 PM

Centex fundamental news brought down all the HBs big today

.

News:

PHM