3SOF

Melf Elf · January 06, 2007, 06:19:14 AM

In the Rising Channel (red), there are three Bullish Patterns:

#1 - Bullish Falling Wedge (green) - it broke out on September 11, putting 34.22 IN PLAY. The target MADE at the top of the Rising Channel (red) on October 10.

#2 - Bullish Inverse H&S (blue) - it broke out on November 30, putting 36.44 IN PLAY. The high of that breakout is 35.31, but PHM never has closed below the neckline (it tagged it exactly, at Friday's 31.55 low), so 36.44 still is IN PLAY.

#3 - Bullish Falling Wedge (purple) - it's only bullish if it breaks out, which would be a print of 33.16 on Monday, January 8. It declines at the rate of 0.09375 per day.

Melf Elf · January 08, 2007, 10:01:01 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 05, 2007, 12:21:18 PM
Bought PHM at 31.94. Stop: 31.54. Risk: a loss of 1.3%.

Stopped out at 31.54. Loss: 1.3%

That was a very tight stop, and I'm suspecting that the early drop was a possible downside fakeout/shakeout, but I wasn't willing to pay to find out.

Melf Elf · January 17, 2007, 02:18:16 PM

PHM had another bullish pattern breakout today, at 32.50, on more bad news in the sector. The 50/200DMAs are at 31.877 and 31.882, respecitively, and likely will make a Bullish Cross today.

The TRIPLE Short Squeeze, explained in previous posts above, is back on.

nullzero · January 17, 2007, 05:09:34 PM

I think I will shy away from going long on PHM. If PHM decides to climb higher I will watch for a good entry for a short. The fundamental situation in the real estate market is not going to get better anytime soon.

Melf Elf · January 18, 2007, 04:31:26 AM

Quote from: nullzero on January 17, 2007, 05:09:34 PM
I think I will shy away from going long on PHM. If PHM decides to climb higher I will watch for a good entry for a short. The fundamental situation in the real estate market is not going to get better anytime soon.

nullz,

I understand your point, but what I find so interesting is that yesterday, PHM had a THIRD bullish breakout, despite the fundamentals, and despite analysts' expectation that this stock will be one of the worst performers in S&P 500 this year.

The 50/200 DMAs also had a Bullish Cross yesterday.

nullzero · January 18, 2007, 04:49:00 AM

I tend to be very one sided in my viewpoint when I believe in something. This is one of the reasons I miss out on many good plays and also lose on others. PHM may very well be a good play for a short term long position. HBs are going to be volatile today with the Building Permits and Housing Starts data.

nullzero · January 19, 2007, 02:12:55 AM

PHM slashed profit outlook afterhours today. PHM dropped over 3% in AH trading. I am curious to see where this will be trading tomorrow, I think it is going to continue downward in the low 30s.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7b80B446E4-2428-439E-A612-6C8DDEEC6341%7d&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Melf Elf · January 19, 2007, 06:29:58 AM

Quote from: nullzero on January 19, 2007, 02:12:55 AM
PHM slashed profit outlook afterhours today. PHM dropped over 3% in AH trading. I am curious to see where this will be trading tomorrow, I think it is going to continue downward in the low 30s.

nullz,

Yeah, I'm curious, too. The fundamentals look lousy, but the chart looks fine, although yesterday was a Bearish Gravestone candle.

Support is roughly 32.34 - 31.32:

1. the top of the pattern breakout (blue)

2., the 50/200DMAs, which just had a Bullish Cross

3. the neckline of Bullish Inverse H&S (green)

If the bad news already if factored in, PHM should be able to handle it, and find support.

Melf Elf · January 19, 2007, 10:45:04 AM

Quote from: Melf Elf on January 19, 2007, 06:29:58 AM

Yeah, I'm curious, too. The fundamentals look lousy, but the chart looks fine, although yesterday was a Bearish Gravestone candle.

PHM has taken out the high of yesterday's Bearish Gravestone candle. That's pretty impressive, given the lousy news. The Street was expecting $0.37. PHM is saying a loss of $0.05 to a gain of $0.05.

Normally, a stock would get whacked for disappointing like that.

Quote
Support is roughly 32.34 - 31.32:

1. the top of the pattern breakout (blue)

2., the 50/200DMAs, which just had a Bullish Cross

3. the neckline of Bullish Inverse H&S (green)

If the bad news already if factored in, PHM should be able to handle it, and find support.

The low so far is 32.78, well above the top of support. The gain might not hold up, but early trading is indicating that the bad news already is factored in.

PHM currently is BID 33.75...ASK 33.76, up almost 3%, rather than being down 3%, like it was in after hours.

Quote from: nullzero on January 18, 2007, 04:49:00 AM
I tend to be very one sided in my viewpoint when I believe in something. This is one of the reasons I miss out on many good plays and also lose on others.

I forgot to applaud you for that, nullz. Applause.

It's hard for us to admit that, and I admire you for doing it, but it really does hurt our trading when we get stuck in our opinions.

nullzero · January 19, 2007, 11:37:59 AM

Wow im suprised it rallied... Nice job Melf on catching the bullish pattern.

Melf Elf · February 01, 2007, 10:32:21 AM

Quote from: nullzero on January 19, 2007, 11:37:59 AM
Wow im suprised it rallied... Nice job Melf on catching the bullish pattern.

Thanks, nullz.

The 35.31 target MADE.

Miserable fundamentals...beautiful, bullish chart patterns.

"When the fundamentals and the technicals disagree, defer to the technicals (or at least give the technicals strong consideration)."

nullzero · February 09, 2007, 03:17:11 AM

Didnt play this one on the short side when it hit 35... I still believe its a good short play at 33. I can see this going back into the high 20s sometime in the summer.

Terliso · June 12, 2008, 12:46:31 AM

Back to shorting......

News:

PHM