VLO

[la-onda]

fyi:
from yahoo board:
Merrill Lynch View 9/8/06   (1 Rating)      10-Sep-06 10:20 am   
•
Our 12-month price objective is $82 and assumes that
Valero's shares are valued at our calculation of full
replacement cost of the company's refining assets. That
objective is achievable, in our view, based on our analy-
sis of the stock's valuation multiples at that price level.
We believe that that is achievable given the global
refining industry's focus on building out capacity to meet
global demand growth and on processing lower-quality
grades of crude oil (i.e., heavy and sour), which are
similar to those currently processed by Valero. We
believe that a disconnect has emerged between asset
values on new build, brownfield refineries and upgrading
units and the value of Valero in the equity market.
•
A key risk to our price objective is a sustained deteriora-
tion in refining margins below the assumptions in our
model. We expect margins to remain well-above the five-
year averages because of a structural tightness in the
global refining industry that we think will persist at least
through the decade. However, a decline in demand for
refined products, either U.S. or globally, could relieve
upward pressure on margins and cause a deterioration
below our expectations. Our global energy team forecasts
a 1.6% increase in global product demand in 2006 and a
1.7% increase in 2007.
Christopher Moore
Research Analyst, MLPF&S

&

With Buy Rating initiated at "AG Edwards"
Friday, September 08, 2006 11:45:04 AM ET
Valero GP
NEW YORK, September 08 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Valero GP initiate coverage of With Buy Rating (ticker: VEH) with "AG Edwards".

http://www.newratings.com/analyst_news/article_1364296.html

[422fwhp]

I couldn´t resist and I have bought a few VLO shares @ 51.85$

Ditto...in at $50.50

[la-onda]

downgraded again: 
http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/060912/14718.html?.v=1

[422fwhp]

I sold for a small profit...too scary for me.

[shawFund]

Let us do some analysis on VLO:

In the last 4 years, VLO componded earning growth is 113.31%. That type of growth certainly will not last forever.

$0.21 -> $1.29 -> $3.34 -> $6.68.

But its share price gained more than 600% and that EPS growth already relfected on its price gain: it gain >100% in 2004 and > 100% again in 2005 (refleted its 100% growth rate in last few years).

As its growth slowed down or even reduced, its price will have difficulty to gain forther.

What I see is range trading in the next year. So, $50 is a very good price to own this company.

It may re-test its year low of $46. But the down risk is much smaller than up potential.

BUY from here.

[la-onda]

upgrade fom Citigroup from hold to buy
&
upgrade from BoA from neutral to buy

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/MarketAnalysis/Calendars/UpgradesDowngrades.htm

[shawFund]

I sold for a small profit...too scary for me.

Many oil related companies are in oversold condition and is due to have a rebound (for ~30% - 50% gain).

[422fwhp]

At the time, it was a good decision...and I was able to use those funds on hepi so it's all good.

[la-onda]

1)
Valero Energy board okays $2 bln stock buyback plan

Oct 23 (Reuters) - Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) on Monday said its board approved a plan to repurchase $2 billion of common shares, in addition to its existing buyback authorization to offset dilution created by stock option programs.
Year to date, the company has purchased about 33 million shares for about $1.9 billion, which reduced shares outstanding by more than 5 percent, the company said in a statement.
The program does not have a scheduled expiration date. (Reporting by Shikhar Balwani in Bangalore)

2)

Valero Energy Grants CEO Options For 75,400 Shares >VLO
Dow Jones Newswires - October 23, 2006 5:00 PM ET
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) said Monday that it granted Chief Executive William E. Klesse 75,400 options with an exercise price of $52.55 each.
The San Antonio, Texas, oil and gas company said in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission that the exercise price represents the average high and low sale price of its common stock on the grant date, Oct. 19. The company also said it granted Klesse 28,730 restricted shares, along with 23,620 performance-based shares.
Based on Monday's closing price of $51.61, the restricted and performance-based grants would be valued at about $2.7 million.

3)
Chart:

any TA comments from our "Gurus" ?

[danman3459]

Earnings are out.  Let's roll.   

[danman3459]

Valero Energy 3rd-qtr profit rises, beats estimate
Tue Oct 31, 2006 8:49 AM ET

HOUSTON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Valero Energy Corp. <VLO.N>, the largest U.S. oil refiner, said on Tuesday its third-quarter earnings rose on higher sales volumes and stronger margins in both wholesale and retail markets.

The San Antonio company posted net income of $1.6 billion, or $2.55 per share, versus $862 million, or $1.47 per share, in the year-ago quarter.

Excluding one-time items, the company posted profit of $1.5 billion, or 2.42 per share, versus $1.3 billion, or $2.19 per share, a year ago.

That figure easily beat the average analysts' view of $2.28 per share, according to Reuters Estimates.

Shares in Valero closed at $52.14 per share Tuesday on the New York Stock Exchange, down 26 percent from their April peak at $70.74 per share.

[usedcasting]

Just thought I would post chart. I like the possibilities here.

uc.

[Michael]

Well Valero is not the best investment we have made in 3SOV but it might still turn out to be a good investment 

Fundamentally this stock is great but our timing was bad due to the correction of the energy commodities. I guess the best lesson learned was that even the best stock need to have a stop loss!

I believe we will se this stock run in the coming weeks as we head into the heating season but lesson learned and it is time to set a stop on this pick. In fact it is way too late!

So we will close this position if the stock breaks through 50. For a solid stock like this I consider this to be a very tight stop but it is time that VLO shows that great fundamentals still counts.

[la-onda]

just fyi:
1)
Valero Energy initiated with "neutral"
Friday, November 17, 2006 3:32:59 AM ET
Prudential Financial
NEW YORK, November 17 (newratings.com) - Analyst Jason D Gammel of Prudential Financial initiates coverage of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO.NYS) with a "neutral" rating.
The target price is set to $61.
In a research note published yesterday, the analyst mentions that the company is well positioned to capitalise on the light-heavy pricing differentials in crude oil going forward. The significant recovery in Valero Energy's refining margins is being primarily driven by the company's turn-around cycle, the analyst says.

2)
Valero Energy "buy," target price raised
Wednesday, November 22, 2006 6:15:57 AM ET
Deutsche Securities
NEW YORK, November 22 (newratings.com) - In a research note published yesterday, analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities reiterate their "buy" rating on Valero Energy Corp (VLO.NYS).
The target price has been raised from $60 to $65.

[guitarman]

Not such a good day today.
Down 3.25%

What do you all make of this news?
David - Is this why you put a stop limit at $50?
Thanks and Best
GMan

Valero GP Holdings, LLC Announces Pricing of Secondary Public Offering
7:41 p.m.  12/18/2006   Provided by   
SAN ANTONIO, Dec 18, 2006 (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Valero GP Holdings, LLC (VEH), the owner of the general partner of Valero L.P. (VLI), announced today the pricing of its secondary public offering of 17,869,565 of its units representing limited liability company interests at $21.62 per unit. The underwriters have been granted a 30-day option to purchase up to 2,680,435 additional units. If the underwriters exercise such option in full, the ownership interest of subsidiaries of Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) in Valero GP Holdings, LLC will be reduced to zero. The offering is expected to close on or about December 22, 2006. All of the units being sold are offered by subsidiaries of Valero Energy Corporation. As a result, Valero GP Holdings, LLC will not receive any proceeds from this offering.
Lehman Brothers Inc., UBS Investment Bank, Citigroup Global Markets Inc. and Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated are acting as joint book-running managers. In addition, acting as co-managers for the offering are, Goldman, Sachs & Co., RBC Capital Markets Corporation, Wachovia Capital Markets, LLC, A.G. Edwards & Sons, Inc., Raymond James & Associates, Inc., Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC, J.P. Morgan Securities Inc., Oppenheimer & Co. Inc. and Sanders Morris Harris Inc.
This press release shall not constitute an offer to sell nor the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Any offer will be made only by means of the prospectus. A copy of the final prospectus relating to the offering may be obtained when available from Lehman Brothers Inc., c/o ADP Financial Services, Integrated Distribution Services, 1155 Long Island Avenue, Edgewood, NY 11717, Fax: 631-254-7268, email: [email protected], from UBS Investment Bank at 299 Park Avenue, Prospectus Department, New York, NY, 10171, phone: 212-821-3000, or from any of the other underwriters.
Valero GP Holdings, LLC is a publicly traded limited liability company that owns the 2 percent general partner interest, a 21.4 percent limited partner interest and the incentive distribution rights in Valero L.P., one of the largest independent terminal and petroleum liquids pipeline operators in the nation with operations in the United States, the Netherlands Antilles, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. For more information, visit Valero GP Holdings, LLC's web site at www.valerogpholdings.com .
Valero L.P. is a publicly traded, limited partnership based in San Antonio, with 9,303 miles of pipeline, 86 terminal facilities and four crude oil storage facilities. One of the largest independent terminal and petroleum liquids pipeline operators in the nation, the partnership has operations in the United States, the Netherlands Antilles, Canada, Mexico, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. The partnership's combined system has approximately 77 million barrels of storage capacity, and includes crude oil and refined product pipelines, refined product terminals, a petroleum and specialty liquids storage and terminaling business, as well as crude oil storage tank facilities. For more information, visit Valero L.P.'s web site at www.valerolp.com .