LRCX

[Miguel007]

On friday afternoon's the stock breakdown through the support at $40 seemingly put the sellers in further control of the trend and that is why it made sense to favor the short side. During this week the stock headed back up to the descending trendline and have failed the breakout, volume is increasing in the downdays. Keep in mind that the stock is trading in a downtrend, RSI is again in the Beraish area and an important point was that the DMA50 line already crossed DMA200.

[Melf Elf]

Miguel,

Your chart didn't show up, but nice analysis.  Applause. 

Interesting chart:

1. H&S Top

2. Since the breakdown low on July 21 (Brown #1), it's been in a Symmetrical Triangle rally (it looks more like an Ascending Triangle) back to the broken neckline.

3. August 17 looks like one of those "Perfect Shorts" (if there is such a thing ...  )

a. It was a failure at the H&S neckline

b. The 50DMA crossed below the 200 DMA right there

c. The down trendline (blue) off the high was resistance right there

d. It was data point #4 of the Symmetrical Triangle, which looks like its going to be a Bearish continuation pattern (still needs confirmation)

The low of August 17 was 41.02, so that was the "sell pivot."  A print of 41.01 the next session was the technical "sell short."

There have been several opportunities since then to sell short at or near 41.01.  At the end of this week, for example:

August 23 high: 40.99

August 24 high: 40.99

August 25 high: 41.11

The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) came in on Friday at 39.785.

Friday's low: 39.74.

Friday's close: 39.80, so the pattern held on a closing basis.

Good short candidate.  Thanks.

[Melf Elf]

The bottom of the Symmetrical Triangle (pattern in purple) came in on Friday at 39.785.

Friday's low: 39.74.

Friday's close: 39.80, so the pattern held on a closing basis.

Good short candidate.  Thanks.

The bottom of the triangle came in yesterday at 39.91.  The close was 39.96, so it held again on a closing basis.

The bottom of the triangle comes in today at 4.035.  A close below that trendline would give us a second pattern break to the downside.

LRCX currently is BID 40.18...ASK 40.19, so it's still hanging on to the triangle heading into the bell.

[Melf Elf]

Shorted LRCX at 40.90.  Stop above the 200DMA, currently at 45.20 for now.

[Melf Elf]

Shorted LRCX at 40.90.  Stop above the 200DMA, currently at 45.20 for now.

CORRECTION: The 200 DMA is at 42.74.  I don't know where I got 45.20. 

Looks like I should have waited for a downside pattern break on a closing basis.  I'm probably going to get stopped out of this one, dang it.

[nutsterrt]

Was watching this one this morning, was cautious of the early run up. I think we'll be giving some of these gains back later today. I'm short @ 42.15 with a tight stop at 43.00.

[Melf Elf]

Was watching this one this morning, was cautious of the early run up. I think we'll be giving some of these gains back later today. I'm short @ 42.15 with a tight stop at 43.00.

nutsterrt,

We're right at the 200 DMA now, so I hope you're right. 

[Melf Elf]

Shorted LRCX at 40.90.  Stop above the 200DMA, currently at 45.20 for now.

CORRECTION: The 200 DMA is at 42.74.  I don't know where I got 45.20. 

Looks like I should have waited for a downside pattern break on a closing basis.  I'm probably going to get stopped out of this one, dang it.

Covered the short at 43.03.  Loss: 5.2%

[nutsterrt]

I also covered, though for a lesser 2.0% loss. Still a bummer 

[Melf Elf]

I also covered, though for a lesser 2.0% loss. Still a bummer 

nutsterrt,

Yeah, that is a bummer! 

That chart looked like a candidate for "THE PERFECT SHORT" since it failed twice at the broken neckline of the H&S Top, and looked like it was going to break the recent triangle to the downside.

Rats!

Not that it would have made much difference (it would have saved me about 1½%), but I should have covered at 42.26, above the last high of 42.25.  It was obvious at that point that it wasn't "THE PERFECT SHORT," but I decided to give it a chance to fail at the 200DMA, in case it was just a short squeeze that was going to fizzle this afternoon.

No fizzle yet.  It's now at 43.28.

Overall, I still like shorting these situations, but sometimes they don't work out, like this one.  We'll get 'em next time. 

[sebfr]

Good fundamental + good chart...BUY opportunity in the next days..

http://www.3stocksonfire.org/trading/index.php?board=3.0

[BigSully1]

Breakout!

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LRCX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p28042464739

[bjc]

Yes Sully, all the cap ex looking great toady.

After a cursory glance at NVLS, KLAC, and LRCX, it seems NVLS and KLAC are both trading at a fwd pe of 20 ish, while LRCX is trading at a fwd pe of only 15 ish.  So on this metric, we can conclude LRCX is the best value. 

I think LRCX could be justified in a run to the triple digits, based on fwd pe of 25, and probably estimates will be raised.

[bjc]

I've come to the conclusion that LRCX certainly deserves a healthier valuation.  I'll be a buyer soon. 

At a current PE of 13.04, I just can't put it together.  Nice healthy 4% correction today after a 10% + gain yesterday. 

I hope to pick some up in the low 56.xxs.

All time high made yesterday.