Dow Jones 30: Industrials Index

[setravis]

Tech Stocks Lead Rally.......




Buyers were having their way on Wall Street Thursday, and the major indices were rallying, albeit down from earlier highs, led by the tech sector.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average was recently up 82 points, or 0.7%, at 12,524, and the S&P 500 was adding 9 points, or 0.7%, at 1424. The Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 22 points, or 0.9% at 2482.

On the Dow, Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) and Honeywell (HON:NYSE) were higher by at least 1.8%.

Gains of 3.6% or more in eBay (EBAY:Nasdaq) and Level 3 (LVLT:Nasdaq) helped boost the Nasdaq.

"The bulls have a very good chance to break the market out on the upside, but the Dow, S&P and other important market averages are lagging well behind the Nasdaq," said Ken Tower, chief market strategist with CyberTrader. "These averages need to catch up, which is another way of saying that the rally has been quite narrow so far and needs to broaden."

Crude oil prices turned lower in a choppy session, extending the recent downtrend. The February futures contract was recently down $1.75 to $52.27 a barrel. Through Wednesday''s close, crude prices had fallen 11.5% for the year.

The dollar was mixed against the world''s other major currencies. The news of the day in the foreign-exchange market was coming out of Europe, where the European Central Bank left its benchmark lending rate unchanged but the Bank of England raised rates by a quarter point.

Both the euro and the pound fell against the greenback. Gold was up slightly, adding $2 to $615.40 an ounce.

Treasuries eased. The 10-year note was down 8/32 in price and yielding 4.72%, and the 30-year bond was off 15/32 and yielding 4.81%.

The Federal Reserve was in the news again, this time to announce that Boston Fed President Cathy Minehan will be retiring. Minehan was to be a voting member of the FOMC in 2007 beginning in January.

On the corporate side, several firms raised their stock price targets for Genentech (DNA:NYSE) after the biotech company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $594 million, or 55 cents a share, up 75% from a year ago.

Excluding items, Genentech earned 61 cents a share, beating the consensus by a nickel. Shares were adding 4.4% to $87.45.

Analysts also had positive comments on Google (GOOG:Nasdaq) , where Goldman raised its price target and revenue forecast, and Banc of America reiterated a buy rating on the stock.

BofA also affirmed its opinion that Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq) is a buy.

Elsewhere in the tech space, Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) is suing Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) , saying it infringed on Cisco''s trademark for the iPhone name.

On Tuesday, Apple CEO Steve Jobs unveiled the company''s own iPhone, a name that Cisco has owned since acquiring Infogear in 2000. Shares of Apple, up 14% this week, were recently down 82 cents, or 0.9%, to $96.18.

Altria (MO:NYSE) shares reached an all-time high of $90.50 after UBS raised its price target to $94 from $81. Altria was recently up $1.07, or 1.2%, to $90.26.

In M&A activity, Six Flags (SIX:NYSE) will sell seven of its theme parks to Parc 7F-Operations in a deal worth $312 million. The stock was higher by 47 cents, or 8.7%, to $5.90.

Turning to the economic docket, the Labor Department said initial jobless claims fell last week by a greater-than-expected 26,000 to 299,000. Economists expected a small decline to 320,000. The less volatile four-week moving average was lower by 1,750 to 314,750.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei fell 0.6% to 16,838, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng dropped 0.9% to 19,385. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 jumped 1.1% at 6230. Germany''s Xetra DAX was up 1.8% to 6687.

[setravis]

Bulls Back for More.......


1/12/2007


Stocks started sluggish amid tech sector warnings and higher oil prices, but a steady rally from late morning helped the major indices close higher again Friday.

For the Dow Jones Industrial Average, it was another record finish, its 24th since October. The Dow gained 41.10 points, or 0.33%, to 12,556.08, and the S&P 500 added 6.91 points, or 0.49%, at 1430.73. The Nasdaq Composite was ahead by 17.97 points, or 0.72%, to 2502.82.

"We have another long weekend, so people have hit the exits early today," said Jay Suskind, head of institutional equity trading with Ryan Beck & Co. "As we get to more earnings and economic numbers next week, the market will take its cue from there."

The market will be closed Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. observance.

All told, the Dow was higher for the week by 158 points, or 1.3%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, surged 69 points, or 2.8%.

Volume was strong to end the week, with 2.70 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers beat decliners by a 2-to-1 margin. Volume on the Nasdaq reached nearly 2.16 billion shares, and winners outpaced losers 3 to 2.

By sector, oil stocks were the big winners. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index jumped 2.8%, and the Amex Oil Index added 3.1%. Utility stocks were hit hardest, with the Philadelphia Utility Index slumping 0.8% and the Dow Jones Utilities Index finishing lower by 0.7%.

Technology led the market''s advance during the previous session, as the Nasdaq gained 25.52 points, or 1.04%, and the same happened again.

Even late warnings by SAP (SAP:) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD:) failed to keep the bulls stuck on the sidelines.

Software giant SAP slumped in Germany but rose 3.3% in U.S. trading despite its poor forecast. Rival Oracle (ORCL:) tacked on 0.6%. AMD dove 9.5% to close at $18.26 following its own disappointing numbers, but the overall market shrugged off the cautious comments.

Crude oil prices gained ground after a four-day drop that has seen the near-month futures contract fall to a 19-month low. OPEC announced it will consider an emergency meeting to discuss the recent drop in crude and ponder new production cuts. The group has already set plans to reduce output by 1.7 million barrels.

For the year, oil has fallen roughly 15%. February crude was stronger by $1.11 to close at $52.99 a barrel. Other energy contracts were higher, as well.

On the economic docket, the Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales rose a better-than-expected 0.9% in December. Excluding autos, retail sales were higher by 1%.

Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics, said retail sales "had been weak as the housing crunch depressed sales of appliances, but the combination of the plunge in gas prices and the holidays has generated a sudden surge, which we do not expect to last."

Separately, the government said U.S. business inventories rose 0.4% in November, above estimates. Elsewhere, the Labor Department said import prices increased 1.1% in December, above economists'' forecasts. Compared to a year ago, import prices have risen 2.5%. The increase was blamed on rising petroleum prices, which were up 4.8%, the largest gain in seven months.

Treasuries dropped following the data. The 10-year was falling by 10/32, yielding 4.77%, and the 30-year bond slid 20/32 to lift the yield to 4.86%.

The dollar eased against other major currencies. Meanwhile, gold jumped $13 to $626.90 an ounce, and silver surged by 42 cents at $12.88 an ounce.

Investors also welcomed a speech from Boston Federal Reserve President Cathy Minehan, who said that while inflation remains a challenge for the Fed to grapple with, price pressures may be easing. On Thursday, Minehan, who is set to become a voting member of the Fed''s policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, announced her retirement.

Returning to corporate news, Cablevision Systems (CVC:) fell 4.1% after the Dolan family raised its final buyout offer to $9.8 billion in order to take the company private. Shares shed $1.21 to $28.39.

Among analyst moves, Banc of America Securities upped its price target for Apple (AAPL:) to $105 from $93 and raised IBM''s (IBM:) price target to $110 from $100.

Still, Apple was lower by $1.18, or 1.2%, to close at $94.62. IBM gained 63 cents, or 0.6%, to $99.28.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei rose 1.3% to 17,057, and Hong Kong''s Hang Seng added 1.2% to 19,613. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 was up 0.1% to 6239. Germany''s Xetra DAX was higher by 0.3% to 6705.

[setravis]

New High for Dow Industrials.......

1/16/2007


Stocks were sluggish for much of the session and closed narrowly mixed Tuesday, but for the Dow Jones Industrial Average it was another record finish.

The Dow rose 26.51 points, or 0.21%, to 12,582.59, thanks to gains of 1.5% or more in components IBM (IBM:) and DuPont (DD:) .

The S&P 500 added 1.17 points, or 0.08%, to 1431.90, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 5.04 points, or 0.2%, to 2497.78.

Volume was strong to start the abbreviated week, with 2.68 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. On the Nasdaq, nearly 2.22 billion shares traded. Losers edged winners.

Wall Street is coming off a week in which the Dow gained 158 points, or 1.3%, and the S&P 500 added 21 points, or 1.5%. The Nasdaq jumped 69 points, or 2.8%.

However, Paul Nolte, director of investments with Hinsdale Associates, said that many technical indicators "have deteriorated over the past couple of weeks as the major averages close at multiyear highs, indicating that forces pushing stocks higher are waning."

One of the top stories of last week was the downtrend in crude oil prices, and that decline spilled over as the new week began. February futures shed $1.78 to finish at $51.21. Other energy contracts were mixed.

"The decline in commodity prices has temporarily been halted as economic growth has shown some life," said Nolte. "However, whether the short-term rise is merely a correction in a larger declining pattern remains to be seen. The reaction of the markets to the normal winter conditions this week will be interesting to watch. Inventories still remain well above normal."

By sector, oil stocks were the big losers of the session. The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index fell 0.9% and the Amex Oil Index slumped 1.5%. Transportation stocks were best performers, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average jumping 2.1% and the Nasdaq Transportation Index finishing higher by 1.1%.

On the corporate side, another disappointment came from the homebuilding sector, where Centex (CTX:) said writeoffs would lead to a third-quarter loss. Excluding items, Centex said its adjusted earnings will still probably miss analysts'' consensus forecast. The stock fell by $1.55, or 2.9%, to $51.61.

A number of notable analyst actions captured investor attention, including a double downgrade of networking giant Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq) . Prudential cut its rating on the stock to neutral from overweight, and Banc of America lowered its rating to neutral from buy. Even so, BofA kept its $30 price target. Cisco lost 88 cents, or 3%, to $28.04.

Elsewhere on the research front, Goldman Sachs resumed coverage of Motorola (MOT:NYSE) with a neutral rating, and JPMorgan upgraded Sirius (SIRI:Nasdaq) and XM (XMSR:Nasdaq) to overweight from neutral.

Meanwhile, Banc of America downgraded XM to neutral from buy. Shares of XM finished 0.1% higher, while Sirius gained 1.2%.

Among early reporters, Symantec (SYMC:Nasdaq) cut its third-quarter earnings outlook, citing a weaker-than-expected performance by its data-center management business and higher deferrals than anticipated. The company also offered a disappointing fourth-quarter forecast. Symantec dropped $2.69, or 13.1%, to $17.79.

Wells Fargo (WFC:NYSE) reported fourth-quarter earnings of $2.18 billion, or 64 cents a share, up 13% from the year-ago quarter. Revenue jumped 11% to $9.4 billion. The Thomson First Call average estimate was for earnings of 64 cents a share on revenue of $8.96 billion. Wells Fargo added 72 cents, or 2%, to $36.23.

Elsewhere, TD Ameritrade (AMTD:Nasdaq) posted fiscal first-quarter earnings of $145.6 million, or 24 cents a share, surging 69% from last year. Revenue rose to $535.2 million from $277.3 million last year. Analysts were calling for earnings of 22 cents a share on revenue of $517 million. Shares were higher by 65 cents, or 3.8%, to finish at $18.

Away from equities, the New York Federal Reserve said its Empire State Index unexpectedly fell to a reading of 9.13 in January from a revised 22.2 in December. The index now sits at its lowest level since May 2005. Economists had expected the January reading to slip to 20.0.

"In short, a clear weakening, but it''s far from clear that there is any predictive power here," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist with High Frequency Economics. "The Empire State survey has been persistently stronger than most other regional surveys and the national ISM manufacturing index over the past year or so, but this report goes some way towards closing the gap."

Treasuries were rising. The 10-year note was up 5/32 in price and yielding 4.75%, and the 30-year bond was higher by 7/32 to yield 4.84%.

The dollar was easing against the world''s major currencies. Gold eased $1 to close at $625.90 an ounce. Silver lost 25 cents to $12.62 an ounce.

Overnight in Asia, Japan''s Nikkei sank 1.5% to 17,091, while Hong Kong''s Hang Seng added 0.9% to 20,211. In Europe, London''s FTSE 100 was down 0.8% to 6216. Germany''s Xetra DAX dipped 0.2% to 6717.


Below are the 6 Month, 1 Year and 3 Year Charts...

[setravis]

Early Weakness for Tech Sector.......


1/17/2007



Tech stocks were set for an early decline a day after Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) said it expected to continue feeling the effects of a price war with rival chipmaker AMD (AMD:NYSE) .

Nasdaq 100 futures were down 2.3 points at 1853.50 and were 3.5 points below fair value Wednesday. S&P 500 futures were up 1.6 points at 1440.30 and were 1.2 points ahead of fair value.

Following the prior session''s close, Intel said its fourth-quarter profit sank 39% year over year, but topped analysts'' estimates. Sales in the three months ended Dec. 30 totaled $9.7 billion, at the high end of the company''s guidance.

Shares of Intel fell 4% in early trading.

A decline in the chip giant can put pressure on both the broad tech sector and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, of which it''s a member.

During Tuesday''s action, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 5.04 points to 2497.78. The Dow, meanwhile, rose 26.51 points, or 0.21%, to 12,582.59, another record close. The S&P 500 added 1.17 points, or 0.08%, to 1431.90.

Among the companies reporting their results ahead of the new session, JPMorgan (JPM:NYSE) said fourth-quarter profits rose to $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share, from $2.70 billion, or 76 cents a share, last year. Earnings easily exceeded analysts'' expectations.

Elsewhere, homebuilder Lennar (LEN:NYSE) posted a quarterly loss, and earnings fell at Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE) .

Away from stocks, oil prices continued their downtrend, with the near-month futures contract falling below $51 a barrel. Lately, crude was down 23 cents at $50.98. Most other commodities were dropping as well.

[setravis]

Intel Takes Down Tech Sector.......

1/17/2007



A selloff in shares of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq) dragged the tech sector lower Wednesday, while strength in energy and mining stocks minimized the losses for blue chips.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, coming off its latest record close, slipped 5.44 points, or 0.04%, to 12,577.15, and the S&P 500 gave back 1.28 points, or 0.09%, to 1430.62. The Nasdaq Composite was the worst performer of the major indices, dropping 18.36 points, or 0.74%, to 2479.42.

Volume was again strong, with 2.76 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange. Advancers narrowly edged decliners. Nearly 2.34 billion shares traded on the Nasdaq, and losers outpaced winners 9 to 7.

After the prior session, Intel said its fourth-quarter profit sank 39% year over year but topped analysts'' estimates. Sales in the three months ended Dec. 30 totaled $9.7 billion, at the high end of the company's guidance.

However, what proved unsettling to investors was word from the chipmaker that its pricing battle with AMD (AMD:NYSE) isn't letting up. Shares of Intel slumped $1.26, or 5.7%, to $21.04.

Intel was the biggest drag on the Dow industrials, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index, of which it's also a component, lost 0.8%. On the plus side, the Amex Gold Bugs Index rose 0.6%, and the Amex Oil Index was up 1%.

Edgar Peters, chief investment officer with Pan Agora, said the market should take its future direction from economic data, not earnings releases.

"The problem is that earnings don't say much about the future," said Peters. "Those reports have already been priced in. Investors are worried about what the Federal Reserve will do. We could see a lot of sideways activity because of this."

Wall Street was somewhat hemmed in by the release of the Labor Department's producer price index for December. The headline index was up 0.9%, higher than expectations for an increase of about 0.5%.

The so-called core index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2%, also ahead of expectations. The core rate rose 2% year over year.

The data swung the pendulum back toward the hawks in the debate about the Fed's next interest rate move. Policymakers have said incoming economic data are their primary focus in the run-up to the next two-day Fed meeting, which begins Jan. 30.

"The Fed looks to be on hold indefinitely," said Barry Hyman, equity market strategist with EKN Financial. "There hasn't been a deterioration of inflation that would make the Fed comfortable yet. The lower energy prices will certainly help the inflation story, but there currently isn't enough data for the Fed to believe inflation has come down far enough."

Separately, the central bank said that December industrial production rose 0.4%, above estimates for a 0.1% increase. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% to 81.8, in line with expectations.

Meanwhile, U.S. economic activity continued to expand at a moderate pace between mid-November and December, according to the Fed's regional business survey known as the beige book. The report said most districts characterized growth as moderate. Labor market conditions tightened in a number of districts, while home and auto-related producers were a drag on manufacturing and sales.

During a speech Wednesday afternoon, San Francisco Fed President Janet Yellen said that her view on inflation is more benign than worrisome because "inflationary pressure may be easing" because of lower oil prices.

Back to equities, JPMorgan (JPM:NYSE) said fourth-quarter profits rose to $4.53 billion, or $1.26 a share, from $2.70 billion, or 76 cents a share, last year. Earnings easily exceeded analysts'' expectations. Shares edged higher by 4 cents, or 0.1%, at $48.43.

Fellow Dow component McDonald's (MCD:NYSE) was trading higher after the restaurant chain said it expects fourth-quarter earnings of 61 cents a share. The forecast is ahead of the Thomson First Call average estimate of 58 cents a share. McDonald's tacked on 29 cents, or 0.7%, at $44.86.

Elsewhere, homebuilder Lennar (LEN:NYSE) posted a quarterly loss, and earnings fell at Southwest Airlines (LUV:NYSE) .

This afternoon, Apple (AAPL:Nasdaq) will report its latest numbers. Apple finished down $2.15, or 2.2%, at $94.95 ahead of the release.

Away from stocks, oil prices halted their downtrend ahead of Thursday's weekly inventory report, as the near-month futures bounced after falling below $50.50 a barrel. Crude finished the session higher by $1.03 at $52.24. Most other energy contracts also rebounded.

According to Bloomberg, crude inventories are expected to have eased by 900,000 barrels last week. Distillate supplies probably rose by 1.5 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are expected to have climbed by 2.5 million barrels. The Energy Department will release its report one day later than usual because of the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday on Monday.

Precious metals also gained ground. Gold added $7.40 to close at $633.30 an ounce, and silver was higher by 15 cents to $12.78 an ounce.

The benchmark 10-year note was down 6/32 in price, yielding 4.78%. The dollar fell against the world's major currencies.

Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei added 0.3% to 17,261, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.2% to 20,064. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.2% to 6204. Germany's Xetra DAX was easing 0.2% to 6701.

[guitarman]

Hi All
I find it really interesting that oil is down and gold is going up!
Those two usually move in the same direction.....makes me think something big is up.

I read something about the new US troops being sent to Iraq are possibly for preventing a retaliation against Israel after they take out Iran's nuclear facilities. ING actually did an "Economic Impact" study on this.

I hope I'm all wet.

Peace
GMan

[nullzero]

Yeah I share the same feeling... Something big is about to happen. I loaded up with AUY a few weeks ago so far im only slightly up but I expect gold to skyrocket if the conflict with Iran blows up into war. Oil will also skyrocket if such a event happens... the export of oil from Iraq, Iran, and Kuwait will be disrupted greatly. Right now I am long on AUY and holding some QID (ultra short QQQQ fund). The QID I am under about -6% but I believe we are near the top of the bull run and waiting for the next correction. If the nasdaq drops about 60 points from where it stands now I will be back in green on that position. I dont think the run in the Dow and Nasdaq has anymore steam left. INTC, DELL, GOOG, and even AAPL are showing technical weakness and are extremely overbought which will lead the nasdaq lower. The Semiconductor Index (SOX) has not been able to break over the resistance in the 490s and go into the 500s, without this I doubt we will see the nasdaq climb much higher. The big money may be rotating the money out of tech and into safer more recession proof stocks (gold, utilites, etc.).

[tokyopua]

I think today's action in the Nasdaq will set a strong tone going forward.  If we close anywhere -0.2% below yesterday's close (and it looks that way currently) then I think a correction may start in the Nasdaq that will eventually be able to work its way to the other indices. 

[guitarman]

Interesting.
Nice to hear how the technicals are reflecting the news.

I've recently joined Davids Premium service and have started buying his picks but I'm still holding all my precious metal stocks (NXG, SLW, ECPN, SDRG, PCFG, SWC, Natural Gas is where I have my energy investments and I like XSNX long term!
Setravis posted a really interesting article about an attack on the dollar - that's worth reading if you haven't already. I'm pretty sure that the US printing the RED $100 will be how they intend to purge N. Korean counterfiets.

Best
GMan

[nullzero]

This is definately a turning point at least in the short term. I think we are going to move under the 50dma on the Nasdaq and settle around the low 2300s. The DOW is going to hold up better because its made up of less tech and more recession proof stocks. But eventually the Nasdaq is going to drag the other indices down like the DOW just like toyo has said. DELL, CSCO, INTC all have shot through their 50DMAs on strong bearish volume. AAPL and GOOG are about to breakdown below their 50dma as well, from the looks of it friday or next week we may see this play out. This is looking very bad for the Nasdaq in the short term. I think we are seeing big money exit tech in large amounts.

[tokyopua]

This is definately a turning point at least in the short term. I think we are going to move under the 50dma on the Nasdaq and settle around the low 2300s. The DOW is going to hold up better because its made up of less tech and more recession proof stocks. But eventually the Nasdaq is going to drag the other indices down like the DOW just like toyo has said. DELL, CSCO, INTC all have shot through their 50DMAs on strong bearish volume. AAPL and GOOG are about to breakdown below their 50dma as well, from the looks of it friday or next week we may see this play out. This is looking very bad for the Nasdaq in the short term. I think we are seeing big money exit tech in large amounts.

You are definitely right about the big money leaving Nullzero. 

The kind of volume we are seeing today doesnt happen unless institutions are selling.  I am almost all in cash after selling most my stocks this AM because I heard on CNBC that the move down was on higher volume, which was going to basically ensure 2 distribution days for the Nasdaq in a row, making it 3 distribution days in the last 4 weeks.  That coupled with Cramer talking about how tech stocks are weak at this time of the year made me feel it could well lead to a correction.  Didnt much enjoy getting caught in the last correction, dont want to experience that again!

I am considering buying some SLV or GLD here though...

[nullzero]

Buy some AUY today Toyo you will be rewarded greatly soon I believe. It dropped today on no news for no reason, Its on discount right now. I think medical REITs are a good place to place money in for the long term.

[tokyopua]

Have you guys considered QID, SDS, DXD and MZZ?

Those are ProShares Ultra Short Funds, and they are geared.

Interesting picks cumulina, I hadnt thought of those.  Can you buy in without a margin account?  I mean, in essense you are still shorting if you buy these funds right, and could lose more than your initial investment, so I would assume you need a margin account? (I dont have one presently).

That QID did well today, but its funny to look at the chart, their fund started right when the market started to rally last summer, it looks like an inverse of the market since then sure enough!

[nullzero]

QID is nice I have some . Nice 3% gain today... I would stick to QID, shorting, and gold to play the market weakness. Interesting enough the $VIX index didnt have much movement today. However it is about to break through its 50dma and the chart is showing a reversal from its bottom. The QID is very close to breaking through the 50DMA today. Looking at all the charts and info I would say that we are seeing a big shift in directions now on the markets.

[guitarman]

Perfect week for me to be taking a vacation (no computer and no cell in Costa Rica!)! LOL
Everything I've read seems to indicate that 07 should still be a decent year with a little US recession around the fringes. I'm going to keep holding David's picks (the undervaluation factor is too compelling).
Maybe they move sideways for the next few to 6 months and I'll sell some covered calls where I can. I'm going for the big swings.
If gold really jumps, I'll sell some of my more volatile/speculative stocks.

This has been lots of fun!
See you next week.
All the Best
GMan