INSM

[ScottishTrader]

Well in classic style, INSM spent the first part of yesterday languishing around 1.29 support (probably to get the faint hearted to sell out) only to rally in the afternoon, up to a high of 1.38, and closing reasonably well.  Makes a nice bullish engulfing candle on the chart.

ID, thanks for the PM yesterday, not sure about the C&H formation, as the recent rally didn't get close to the other side of the cup, plus it was already in a sustained downtrend.  Also, I couldn't find the story you posted above, will see if anything hits the wires today.  However, it would be very nice to see some continuation and a break out of this wedge with a bit more volume today - we'll see what happens.  My target is still set around the 200 SMA, around 1.7 for the moment, alhough if we do get a pop on volume, I might sell into it. 

[Melf Elf]

Scotsman,

Nice job on the analysis.  Applause.  Looks like you got your morph, into the Bullish Falling Wedge.  The "W"-Bottom target of 1.53 MADE.  This would be a second bullish pattern breakout here, if it can move higher. 

My target is still set around the 200 SMA, around 1.7 for the moment, alhough if we do get a pop on volume, I might sell into it.

Sounds like a good idea.  The Bullish Falling Wedge breakout would put 1.61-1.63 IN PLAY. 

[Melf Elf]

INSM has made a move out of The Scotman's Bullish Falling Wedge on nice volume: 234,000 shares on the first five minute bar into the 1.40s.  100 day average volume is only 583,000 shares, so that's pretty good.

[Se7en]

Jumped in @ 1.39!

[Kublakhan]

10:42AM Insmed announces that the U.S. District Court in part Insmed's motion to dismiss unfair competition claims brought against Insmed by Tercica (INSM) 1.37 +0.02 : Co announces that the U.S. District Court for the Eastern District of Virginia granted in part Insmed's motion to dismiss unfair competition claims brought against Insmed by Tercica. In a ruling yesterday, the co says Chief United States District Judge James R. Spencer narrowed the scope of Tercica's lawsuit against it. In dismissing portions of the claims brought by Tercica, the Court found areas in which Tercica had not met its burden of establishing that the alleged statements made by Insmed constituted "false advertising" or violated Virginia law. The co says while the court held that a number of Tercica's other factual allegations, if proven, would state claims for false advertising under federal and California law, in comments at the September 9 hearing, Judge Spencer noted that he felt "most if not all" of Tercica's case "could go out on summary judgment."

[Melf Elf]

Jumped in @ 1.39!

Se7en,

MACD is positioned here for a nice Slap Shot to the upside if INSM can hold the breakout, and rally.  Good luck!

[Melf Elf]

INSM committed to The Scotman's Bullish Falling Wedge breakout, but closed on a dumb note, at 1.38. 

The top trendline of a Bullish Falling Wedge generally has a fairly steep slope, so a stock can simply trade sideways and eventually just "fall over" the trendline without truly breaking out, so I view them as suspect until the stock clearly moves higher.

There were 3 data points to that top trendline, so it's a validated trendline.  The last "hit" to that trendline was 1.39, so I view that particular price as important.  INSM took it out yesterday morning on the big volume push to 1.42, which was good, but it didn't manage a CLOSE above it.

Total volume on the day was double average daily volume, so that's fine.

MACD did tick higher above the signal line, poised for a bullish "slap shot," so that's fine, too. (See yesterday's MACD chart posted above).

Since August 28, the 13/21 RSIs have have FOUR bounces out of Bullish Synchronicity (see next post).  That looks good.

INSM now needs to capitalize on those good technicals.  PRICE needs to move higher here.  Target: 1.61 is IN PLAY.

Suggested stop: 1.25.  That's a penny below the Bullish Falling Wedge pattern, and also would take the stock back below the 1.29 - 1.28 highs of the W-Bottom breakout. 

Good luck to those long!

 

[Melf Elf]

13/21 RSIs

[ScottishTrader]

Hey Melf,

Didn't get the chance yesterday to say thanks for your input - it is always good to have you around, and I really appreciate your analysis.  I garee though - wasn't to enamoured with INSMs movement in the afternoon - after what should have been very positive news regarding one of their legal battles with TRCA, INSM ended up just over 2% while TRCA was up over 8% - doesn't make sense to me...

I'd like to hold INSM longer, but I have just decided to change my brokers, and so need to liquidate my account (my awful UK broker charges me £15 or over $25 per US trade and I can't trade half the stocks I want to)  so if we get a short term move into the 1.40s I may sell into that strength (unless it looks REALLY strong) or if it heads below 1.35, which would suggest it is pullling back into the wedge, invalidating the continuation pattern.  Can't believe I held this one for so long for just over a 10% gain, but a gain is a gain right?

[Melf Elf]

or if it heads below 1.35, which would suggest it is pullling back into the wedge, invalidating the continuation pattern.

Scotsman,

I show the top of the wedge coming in today at 1.315.  It falls 0.01875 per day, so it will come in on Monday, October 9 at 1.29625. 

That's the 1.29 - 1.28 top of the W-Bottom breakout, so since it was sloppy and went below that on the print of 1.26 at the bottom of the Falling Wedge, I suppose that it could go down there to "get it right" this time, but....UGH, if it does, unless it bangs higher very quickly.  If it closes down there, that likely would turn the MACD down, etc.  UGH...   

Can't believe I held this one for so long for just over a 10% gain, but a gain is a gain right?

Absolutely!   

[Melf Elf]

That's the 1.29 - 1.28 top of the W-Bottom breakout, so since it was sloppy and went below that on the print of 1.26 at the bottom of the Falling Wedge, I suppose that it could go down there to "get it right" this time,

That's what we got.  Friday's low was 1.28, and INSM closed it out on a Bullish Hammer, and also put in Data #4 of a Bullish Falling Wedge, a fractal (repeating pattern) of The Scotsman's original Bullish Falling Wedge.

So, hopefully, INSM "got it right this time."   

The Bullish Falling Wedge combo comprises, and thereby is nested within, a Symmetrical Triangle, which "should be" a Bullish Continuation Pattern of the W-Bottom Bullish breakout, especially since 1.28 has held, so far.

I'll post that chart next.

but....UGH, if it does, unless it bangs higher very quickly.  If it closes down there, that likely would turn the MACD down, etc.  UGH...

UGH.  We did get the downturn in MACD, which bugs me, but it's still above the zero line, so it could be alright.  My fasterst RSIs, the 13/21 had an "Oops!" and are at Bearish Synchronicity, so if Friday's 1.28 low (sell pivot) gets taken out, that indicator will issue a short-term sell signal.    

I'll post that chart after the Symmetrical Triangle.

[Melf Elf]

We can see that, coming off the bottom, when the short-term 13/21 RSIs came into Bullsih Synchronicity, we have gotten a bounce higher.

This time, we got an "Oops!."  The 13 went below the 21.

In past charts, we've seen where an "Oops!" has turned out alright.  The faster RSI moves back above its "shadow," the next number down in the Fibonnaci sequence.

The 13/21 RSIs now are at Bearish Synchronicity, after the "Oops!"  The 13 needs to power through it.

At Bearish Synchronicty like this, I use the prior day's low, which is 1.28, as a "sell pivot," meaning that if 1.27 gets printed, a sell signal is issued, then I decide whether I want to take the signal, or not.

Since the low of The Scotsman's Bullish Falling Wedge is nearby, at 1.26, I won't sell 1.27.  But, I definitely will sell 1.25, which would indicate that we're likely going down to the Kumo (Cloud), which we'll see in the next chart.

[Melf Elf]

INSM is beautifully positioned for a Bullsih Continuation breakout, with the Bullish Falling Wedges nested within this Symmetrical Triangle, with the faster 8-Day Tenkan Sen (solid green line) bullishly positioned above the 22-Day Kijun-sen, and with INSM bullishly positioned above the Kumo (Cloud).

If INSM can't capitalize on this, and takes out the 1.26 low of The Scotman's Bullish Falling Wedge, with the 13/21RSI issuing a sell signal out of Bearish Synchronicity, UGH....

Where does it look "likely" that we're headed? 

We'd be back below the "W" Bottom breakout, and with that Kumo (Cloud) below here, a break of 1.26 suggests a re-test.

That still could be okay, longer-term.  I created a line (dotted blue) parallel to the highs, that would form a channel.  If the current Symmetrical Triangle morphs on us, I'd expect support somewhere down there.

That said...





BREAK OUT ON MONDAY, YOU DEVIL   

[usedcasting]

Hey Melf, thanks for bring this back up the ranks on my watch list. It does look like a nice setup. Will be watching Monday. (Appl)

Time for that 50ma to cross 200.

uc.

[ScottishTrader]

Am out of INSM for now, in fact out of everything as I take a break while changing my trading accounts. 

Have been singularly unimpressed with INSM's lack of strength in the last couple of weeks.  I was expecting more continuation strength after the initial breakout.  I know these patterns take some time to play out, but it looks to me like INSM could easily tag the 50MA (at 1.23) again as part of a larger falling wedge.

If that happened, I have to admit it would be an excellent buying opportunity.  However, I would not like to see it close below key support at 1.28.  a move right now above 1.35 would suggest a breakout of the falling wedge, but I would really like to see INSM break 1.40, which has caused some problems of late.  The other problem I have is with the evolution of patterns - what I thought was a very bullish looking pennant consolidation (shown in green) broke to the downside, only to morph into a falling wedge, which should also potentially be bullish, but my feedling now is a bit of a "who knows?"

Usedcasting's weekly chart is more encouraging, as it shows the successful breakout and re-test of descending support and small pennant consolidation above key support.  I also like the fact that the price has been holding above the midline of the BBs on a closing basis for the first time since it broke below 2.00 back in March.  Finally, both MACD and RSI are looking much more positive.  However, reading (and trading with) signals on weekly charts require one thing: patience, often a hard thing to have in these markets, and a willingness to let your money sit there as the situation evolves.  For me, I let my money sit there for 3 long months, and really I feel the need to make it work a little harder. 

For now I'll wait for the breakout, accepting that I may have to take a higher price.