IMMR

[David Randolph]

IMMR rose 2.6% yesterday, so a bit less than the S&P 500. It would be nice if the stock could claw back above $7.56, showing that the recent breakdown was a false technical signal.

If investors should bail out and they don't, what does that tell you?

This is a quote from a short term futures trading book that I have, it doesn't apply much but the answer would be: "the short term low was made and there will be a rally".

But it's still early to consider this, because so far IMMR is below $7.56.

In terms of downside I believe the absolute minimum is the company's net cash level, which is $138 M, or $4.57 per share. If the stock were to go below that level, one could buy the company for less than the cash it owns ... and I'm sure the 700 plus patents and licensing agreements with Nokia, Samsung and LG, to name a few, are worth something (well, I think they're worth a lot, but for the argument's sake).

In my view IMMR is trading at rock bottom valuation and the downside risk is very limited, with or without a bear market. The long term upside potential, if haptics becomes mainstream as I think it will, continues to be huge.

I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

[Garoh]

 IMMR Immersion announces 10b5-1c stock trading plans (7.25 -0.33) 

Co announces that the co's chairman of the board, president, and chief executive officer, Victor Viegas, and its CFO and vice president of Finance, Stephen Ambler, have entered into stock trading plans. The stock trading plan adopted by Mr. Viegas will permit him to simultaneously exercise stock options and sell up to 450,000 shares of IMMR common stock. The stock trading plan adopted by Mr. Ambler will permit him to simultaneously exercise stock options and sell up to 30,000 shares of IMMR common stock.

[mschultz3]

Anyone have thoughts on when the stock buyback will occur by the Company?  When they made this statement to the market, did they give a range of time this will occur?

[David Randolph]

Anyone have thoughts on when the stock buyback will occur by the Company?  When they made this statement to the market, did they give a range of time this will occur?

Over the latest conference call management said they couldn't start the buyback program before March 4, 2007 because the SEC didn't let them. This was due to conflicts of interest due to their stock options and lack of a trading plan for them, something like that.

Management has been taking the appropriate steps to solve the issue:

Immersion Announces 10b5-1c Stock Trading Plans
Business Wire (Fri, Mar 14)

IMMR is currently valued at $208 M while it has $138 M in cash and equivalents, so we're talking about $70 M value for its business and technology.

I believe something between 150 million and 300 million mobile phones will be sold globally using the VibeTonz technology annually starting in 2010, bringing $75 M-$150 M in annual net income for the company, so it looks tremendously attractive.

What happens to the share price between now and then has more to do with fear and emotions than fundamentals. 

I'll hold IMMR for the long term.

The lesson learned here is that I should care about timing, especially when considering innovative companies, because most of the times things take a lot longer than what people initially expect.

[David Randolph]

It's interesting to note that even though IMMR has been down, interest in the stock didn't diminish. The average volume is high enough to consider this a "liquid stock".

It seems that the price has at least stabilized.

Here's the analysis Craig-Hallum Capital made of the 4th quarter results, published in February, 29, 2008:

«IMMR: Q4 Results Solid; Approaching Mass Adoption Curve

HIGHLIGHTS

Q4 Results Ahead: Revenue of $9.9M was ahead of our $9.2M estimate and EPS  of $0.05 was ahead of our $0.02 estimate.  The company has shown nice upside  to our numbers for three quarters in a row now.  The bottom line is that  Immersion continues to perform well and we continue to believe there remain a  number of potentially sizeable opportunities going forward as the mass market  is starting to adopt Immersion's haptic technology. 

Licensing Starts to Turn On: Product sales (largely Medical) came in at $4.2M versus our $5.2M estimate.  The segment should benefit going forward from additional platform modules and the roll out of international operations.  Licensing, meanwhile, came in at $4.0M compared to our $3.0M estimate and demonstrated nice growth from Q3 (up 33% sequentially).  We
would look for an acceleration in handset announcements once Nokia has platformized touch, which should be a 2H08 event. Additionally we believe significant other contract wins could help bolster 2009 and beyond as Immersion is approaching the mass acceptance and steep part of the adoption curve of its haptics technology.

Mobility Better Put Into Perspective: Approximately 10M handsets have been shipped using VibeTonz with approximately 5.5M of those being shipped in 2007.  For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more)
versus the current less than 1% industry adoption. 

Gaming Could Begin to Gain: We would note that this week Sony announced that the new DualShock 3 controller for the PS3 would be released in April. While part of the larger Sony agreement and not additive to results, the introduction should signify the opening of the PS3 to third party peripherals.  The end result should be a resurgence in the gaming business, which should be one of many drivers to numbers from here.

Changes to Estimates: We slightly raised our 2008 full year estimates and introduced quarterly numbers.  For 2008 we are now looking for revenue of $41.6M (+20% Y/Y) compared to $40.0M previously and for EPS of $0.10 compared to $0.09 previously.  For Q1 we are looking for revenue of $7.7M (+20% Y/Y) and EPS of ($0.02).

Reiterate Buy Rating and $20 Price Target.

STOCK OPPORTUNITY

We have a Buy rating and $20 price target on shares of Immersion.  We believe the company remains in front of a number of large opportunities that could result in significant top and bottom line growth over the next several years. While our price target valuation is admittedly somewhat arbitrary, we believe the opportunity and track record warrant a premium valuation.  Our price target is based on a 6x multiple on our preliminary 2009 revenue estimate of
$50M (which is in-line with a comparable IP comp group), our valuation of the patent portfolio and cash on the balance sheet of approximately $138M.»

I'm not alone when saying IMMR is deeply undervalued and has the potential to be an outstanding long term investment. I especially enjoyed the following part:

«For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more) versus the current less than 1% industry adoption.»

Don't you see most mobile phones, a couple of years from now, without a keyboard and with just the touch screen interface? I do.

[David Randolph]

Prospective buyers probably don't see the attractiveness in IMMR and we'll need some hard facts coming from the mobility unit over the next several months to make shares surge. 

The following stuff is happening, but taking longer than first anticipated:

«Mobility Better Put Into Perspective: Approximately 10M handsets have been shipped using VibeTonz with approximately 5.5M of those being shipped in 2007.  For some perspective, licensees LG, Nokia and Samsung shipped nearly 700M handsets in 2007 (approximately 62% of the overall market).  If one is apt to believe that touch screens are becoming an increasingly important user interface (as we do) then it becomes easier to understand how mobility becomes a much more meaningful opportunity at 5% or 10% market penetration (or more) versus the current less than 1% industry adoption.»

In the future I'll look three months down the line, instead of three years. I see the more immediate future better and three years is a long time ... a lot may happen in between to change investors perceptions.

But since I came this far, I'll just continue being patient with IMMR.

[David Randolph]

IMMR closed right at the $6.61 support level. The cash pile is $138 M, the market cap is $205 M.

The technology, 700 plus patents, medical & gaming businesses, the licensing agreements with Nokia, Samsung and LG, they're all valued at just $67 M.

Can IMMR get even cheaper? I hope not, but I'll keep holding whatever happens.

[David Randolph]

Just noticing that IMMR continues to hold $6.61 on close.

There was a press release out yesterday:

Immersion Medical Adds Knot Tying and Suturing to LaparoscopyVR(TM) Surgical Simulator
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

It would be nice if the medical equipment segment recovers, since it was due to its weakness that the stock fell further from $10 to below $7.

[soxguy]

Good news ahead for this one? The market seems to think so.

[mschultz3]

Is the volume today coming from the Company Stock buyback?

[la-onda]

nice chart and nice volume. tomorrow will be interesting imo

IMMR: Jumps +12.24%; Vol +85%; Last 90 Min of Trading
Tuesday , April 08, 2008 16:21ET

During the last 90 minutes of today's session, shares of Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) demonstrated a strong UPWARD close relative to its 13:30 ET statistics. "Strong Closers" are determined by proprietary Knobias calculations performed during the last segment of each trading day.

sym: IMMR      @13:30 ET        @CLOSE      % CHANGE
----------   -----------   -----------  ------------
PRICE              $7.35         $8.25       +12.24%
VOLUME           821,305     1,518,359       +84.87%
#TRADES            3,872         6,806       +75.77%
DAY-HI             $7.45         $8.29       LATE-HI
DAY-LO             $6.57         $6.57           N/A

Chart:

[David Randolph]

Good news ahead for this one? The market seems to think so.

Or else the stock was very undervalued. I checked my service and there weren't any new recommendations or research out.

Is the volume today coming from the Company Stock buyback?

It's possible. It's a $50 M buyback program, at current prices that is enough to buy back 1/5 of outstanding shares.

IMMR had a very strong day yesterday, up 23% on volume above average. But the technical trend is still bearish.

We'll see if there's some follow through to yesterday's rally.

Anyway, whatever happens, I'll remain a long term investor in IMMR, I believe the company will be worth several times more in the future.

[dnickers]

I thought I read somewhere that under the buyback program, they were only allowed to by around 150k shares/day.  Is that not true?

[la-onda]

nice consolidation day 

fyi:

IMMR: Short Interest DN 12.8% to 3.3M at the End of Mar 2008
Wednesday, April 09, 2008 16:18ET

According to new short interest data from NASDAQ, short interest for Immersion Corporation (NasdaqNM: IMMR) DECREASED 12.8% to 3,304,645 shares as reported at month-end March, 2008. Based on IMMR's 20-day average daily share volume of 593,300, it would require approximately 6 day(s) of buying to cover this short interest.

Updated IR presentation with nice updates 1st of April:
http://www.immersion.com/corporate/ImmrCorp_Investor_Web_4-1-08.pdf

Chart:

[notbeln]

David

I read that GS and MAZAMA dumped a lot of shares 

Vova