IMMR

[David Randolph]

I've seen the new I-Pod working and that thing really needs tactile feedback. If Apple tries to develop one in-house it will probably violate one of IMMR's patents. It will probably end up buying a license from IMMR.

Anyway, IMMR doesn't need Apple to be worth 4 or 6 times more than what it is worth today. Nokia alone may do the trick, as we've seen. We just need patience for those nokia phones with the VibeTonz technology to be commercially launched and IMMR receiving an undisclosed $ amount for each Nokia phone sold. Even if it is just $1 per phone it would still be huge for IMMR ($1 is my expectation).

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

We've had a press release out from IMMR yesterday:

• Immersion Medical Introduces New Laparoscopic Procedural Skill Module
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

This is good news, but not the interesting story behind IMMR. I think management shouldn't focus too much on this medical equipment unit and keep sending out press releases about it, because what people want to hear is about the mobile devices unit and how the work with Nokia is doing. We want details about what the new models will be and how many ... I think that could be the catalyst to put IMMR back above $20.

Well, sooner or later, it is set to happen, so I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

IMMR's results will be released in November 1st:

• Immersion Schedules Release Date and Earnings Conference Call for Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Business Wire (Tue 8:30am)

I'm more interested in the conference call than on the financial numbers of the 3rd quarter.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

[David Randolph]

We'll hear the conference call in two weeks time. It will be interesting. In the meantime there's nothing else to do but to patiently keep holding IMMR.

[Rmagos]

Hi David

Nokia had his results above of analyts expectations. 85% this quarter comparing with the last and over 113 milions of handsets sold.... good for IMMR... excellent for us...
Superb your job

[David Randolph]

Hi David

Nokia had his results above of analyts expectations. 85% this quarter comparing with the last and over 113 milions of handsets sold.... good for IMMR... excellent for us...
Superb your job

Yep, good news and thanks Rmagos

The more phones Nokia sells, the better for IMMR. But before that the company needs to put its technology in as many models as it can. I hope to hear about how the collaboration with Nokia is going at the Q3 conference call.

I'll keep holding IMMR.

[David Randolph]

Bears can sell IMMR all they want, they can't change the fact that the feel of touch is needed in mobile devices and IMMR has 600 patents covering all aspects of it. With Nokia selling 450 million mobile phones a year and the following news ...

«On July 2, 2007, Immersion Corporation ("Immersion") announced that Nokia Corporation has obtained a long-term, worldwide license for Immersion's VibeTonz tactile feedback system for mobile devices. The license gives Nokia, the world's leading mobile device manufacturer, the rights to use VibeTonz technology to enhance mobile device operation.»

... and the price Sony had to pay due to infringement of IMMR's patents:

«The Court further ordered Sony Computer Entertainment to pay a compulsory license fee at the rate of 1.37% for the duration of the stay of the permanent injunction at the same rate and conditions as previously awarded in its interim January 10, 2005 and February 9, 2005 Orders.»

So I figure IMMR's license fee will be about 1% of any product sold. Since Nokia sells mobile phones with an average selling price of ...

«Nokia's average selling price in the third quarter 2007 was EUR 82, down from EUR 93 in the third quarter 2006 and down from EUR 90 in the second quarter 2007. The lower year on year and sequential ASP in the third quarter 2007 was primarily the result of a significantly higher proportion of entry level device sales, especially in the under EUR 30 category where industry growth has been very strong and where Nokia has the leading market share.»

82 € are worth $117 at the current €/$ exchange rate.

So I estimate no less than $1 per Nokia mobile phone sold using VibeTonz technology. The big questions are how many models and which models will start having the VibeTonz technology incorporated. I believe that over the long term all Nokia mobile phones will have the VibeTonz technology, and that should mean no less than $400 M in annual revenue, and no less than $200 M in annual net income, for IMMR, which is currently a $443 M market cap company.

And, of course, IMMR isn't restricted to Nokia, it has other licensees and its technology may have application in many other product categories beyond mobile devices.

I don't think the people selling IMMR on Friday had these issues in mind. But they're the relevant issues for the long term investor in IMMR's shares. And they all point for a company with awesome long term potential. I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

And, of course, IMMR isn't restricted to Nokia, it has other licensees and its technology may have application in many other product categories beyond mobile devices.

Good news just out for IMMR:

• First Personal Navigation Devices With Immersion's Tactile Feedback to Launch
Business Wire (Mon 8:30am)

Not good enough to push the stock higher in the pre-market, but good news nonetheless.

[David Randolph]

IMMR is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio, but I remain confident that it is an excellent long term pick. It's just that revenues and profits will only start flowing strongly in 2009, when Nokia's handset models using IMMR's technology start selling.

The stock has been trading inside an ascending channel, as you can see on the chart below. I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

Bourbon dropped me a private message on IMMR:

If you get a chance, could you analyze IMMR, and let us know what you think revenues and EPS should be for the stock to continue it's advance? The consensus is that they will come in with $9 Million in Sales and -.02 EPS. Is it possible that they could have much higher numbers, or will we have to wait a few more quarters? Also, if they are in-line with those estimates, do you expect the stock to continue pushing to $50? I will look for your response in the IMMR thread if you wish.

Yeah sure Bourbon, every "normal" day I write a few comments about IMMR, and if there are questions, it only makes my job easier

I think you're missing the point about IMMR's fundamental story Bourbon. IMMR is different from most other Main Portfolio's investment plays, you can't see it in today's revenues or profits. Q3 revenue and EPS numbers are irrelevant to where IMMR is going to be 12 months, or let's make it 24 months, from now.

The story behind IMMR's investment relates mainly with the licensing agreement with Nokia. Nokia sells 400 million plus mobile phones a year, and it is working with IMMR to incorporate IMMR's VibeTonz technology in its mobile phones. Nokia will pay IMMR a royalty for every single mobile phone sold using VibeTonz technology in the world.

I say this will bring at least $400 M in revenue and $200 M in net income to IMMR, and that should make IMMR worth at least $3 B (15 times earnings). Currently the company is worth $452 M, so you get the point.

Now, what is needed for IMMR to start rising, say, to double over the next 3-6 months? It is needed more information about how the partnership with Nokia is going. How many Nokia models will be using VibeTonz, starting when? These are the questions now and if they provide some positive answers over the next conference call, surely the stock will fly.

Current revenues and profits don't mean much for the share price, at least no more than a couple of days reaction. 

I'll continue holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

Make no mistake about it, the main reason why I own IMMR for the long term is the following press release:

«Nokia Licenses Immersion's VibeTonz(R) Tactile Feedback for Mobile Devices

SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 2, 2007--Immersion
Corporation (NASDAQ:IMMR), a leading developer and licensor of touch
feedback technology, today announced that Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK)
has obtained a long-term, worldwide license for Immersion's
VibeTonz(R) tactile feedback system for mobile devices. The license
gives Nokia, the world's leading mobile device manufacturer, the
rights to use VibeTonz technology to enhance mobile device operation.

"This license with Nokia supports the potential for very
widespread use of our VibeTonz System -- and the VibeTonz System
supports the potential for a much fuller, more multisensory experience
for users," said Immersion CEO Victor Viegas. "With VibeTonz
technology, Nokia can very purposefully access the sense of touch and
add value throughout the mobile device."

A single implementation of the VibeTonz System can supply several
advantages, including off-load dependence on sight and sound, which
can enhance safety and ease operation in some situations. Tactile
feedback has also been found to improve execution time, error rate,
and information capacity.(1) More specifically, the technology allows
touchscreen-based mobile devices to provide unmistakable tactile cues
in response to touchscreen presses. It can enliven mobile games with
touch feedback similar to that found in console games; heighten the
music and ringtone fun-factor by "turning up the sub-woofers" with a
vibe beat; make operation easier and more intuitive by pairing
audio/visual with tactile cues for events such as call dropped,
ringing, and busy; and make alerts more discernible and memorable by
varying how they feel, from a reverberating gong effect to a subtle
tapping.

Under the license, Nokia has the right to use Immersion's VibeTonz
Mobile Player in its mobile devices sold worldwide. Immersion will
supply its VibeTonz SDK to Nokia's Forum Nokia developer community for
creating downloadable applications and content for VibeTonz-enabled
products.»

Because Nokia sells more than 400 million mobile phones a year, this will probably change IMMR's fundamentals completely. This is why I don't care buying IMMR with the following multiples:



Now, people looking at IMMR for the first time and not knowing about this press release ... will think it is very expensive ... but it is actually quite cheap, given its future prospects.

I'll keep on holding IMMR.

[David Randolph]

IMMR is currently the biggest loser of the Main Portfolio, but I'm not worried about it, due to the reasons described above on this thread. I'll keep holding IMMR for the long term.

[David Randolph]

IMMR will release 3rd quarter earnings today after the close:

«A press release will be transmitted to the news media immediately following the close of regular trading on November 1st. The company will also hold a conference call including a question and answer session to discuss the results beginning at 2:00 p.m. Pacific time.»

I'll hold through earnings and I'm more interested in the conference call and Q&A session than the actual revenue and profit numbers for this quarter, which are mostly irrelevant for IMMR's long term share price developments.

[soxguy]

     !My

       

Press Release Source: Immersion Corporation


Immersion Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2007 Financial Results
Thursday November 1, 4:05 pm ET


SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Immersion Corporation (NASDAQ:IMMR - News), a leading developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, today announced its third quarter 2007 financial results. Revenues were $9.8 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2007 or 49% higher when compared to revenues of $6.6 million for the third quarter of 2006.
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Net income for the third quarter was $493,000 compared to a net loss of $(3.2) million for the third quarter of 2006. Diluted earnings per share were $0.02 for the quarter compared to $(0.13) loss per share for the third quarter of 2006.

Revenues were $24.8 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2007 compared to revenues of $19.2 million for the first nine months of 2006. Net income for the first nine months of 2007 was $123.1 million, or $3.93 diluted earnings per share, compared to a net loss of $(8.4) million, or $(0.34) loss per share, for the first nine months of 2006.

As of September 30, 2007, Immersion had cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments totaling $137.2 million compared to $135.5 million as of June 30, 2007.

"Immersion has now completed three consecutive profitable quarters with very strong year-to-date revenue growth compared to the first nine months of 2006. Revenue from our Medical business grew 22%, Touch Interface Products 32%, and Gaming 47%. We also reached a significant level of third-quarter revenue of $930,000 in our Mobility business," said Victor Viegas, Immersion CEO, president, and chairman of the board.

"We recently completed a strategic plan for significantly growing revenue and shareholder value, targeting growth opportunities in three areas: medical simulators, mobile devices, and tactile feedback for touchscreens," continued Viegas. "The plan involves product and technology development, sales and marketing initiatives, financial plans, and organizational changes.

"Over the past five years, the Immersion team and I have built and defended a strong intellectual property portfolio, invested in markets and technologies that have become long-term growth opportunities, and steered the company to profitability. As the leading company in haptics technology, Immersion is positioned for substantial growth as markets increasingly recognize the value of haptics. Now is the right time to bring in additional management strength in sales and marketing to drive our growth initiatives while I continue to provide my expertise in licensing, intellectual property, and business negotiations. Therefore, the Immersion Board of Directors and I are announcing several organizational changes," concluded Viegas.

Effective October 31, 2007, Victor Viegas, currently CEO, president, and director of Immersion was elected chairman of the board, and Jack Saltich, who has served on the board since January 2002, was elected lead independent director in accordance with corporate governance best practices. Mr. Viegas continues as CEO and president while the Immersion Board of Directors conducts an open search for a new CEO.

In addition, the company will add a new board member to strengthen experience in the mobile communications industry. A search has begun for candidates with sales and marketing experience in the wireless operator and mobile phone market.

"These changes help position Immersion for its next stage of growth, one based on building strong businesses from its solid foundation of intellectual property, technology, and product solutions," said Jack Saltich, lead director. "As the company continues to benefit from Vic's leadership and financial background as chairman of the board, it will also benefit from a new CEO and a new board member who will each bring additional skills, strong sales and marketing background, and experience in one or more of our target markets."

In a separate press release today, Immersion announced that its board of directors authorized the repurchase of up to $50 million of the company's common stock as part of its strategic financial plan.

[kslifka]

I snagged some shares before the close at $15.55. 

I will be listening to the conference call.  Hopefully good news...along with the $50 million share repurchase program in place.